846
FXUS63 KMKX 090206 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
906 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the end of the week,
  with continued dry weather.

- There are increased fire weather concerns for Friday, due to
  the warm, dry and breezy conditions expected.

- A potential return to more active weather next weekend, as a
  ridging pattern begins to break down.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 906 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Quiet weather expected tonight under mostly clear skies and
light to calm winds. Radiational cooling should allow lows to
drop into the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south, with
milder values closer to Lake Michigan. Some frost is possible in
Marquette and Green Lake Counties, where lows may drop into the
middle 30s in some areas. Patchy frost may occur elsewhere away
from the lake in low lying areas.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 335 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night:

High pressure will promote clear skies and light winds again
overnight. Temperatures will drop into the low 40s to upper 30s
over much of southern WI. The efficient radiative cooling will
allow for patchy frost in central WI and on a more widely
scattered basis in low lying spots of south central WI and the
Kettle Moraine.

Wednesday should be a carbon copy of today, with highs in the
low 70s over southwest WI and mid to upper 60s over east central
WI. Winds will be light and out of the northeast in the morning,
becoming easterly in the afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 336 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Thursday through Tuesday:

Expect high pressure to continue into Friday with temperatures
gradually increasing. Friday will be exceptionally warm, with
highs in the low 80s as an upper level ridge axis sharpens and
moves overhead, increasing warm advection over the Upper Great
Lakes. Winds will be breezy and out of the southwest as the
pressure gradient tightens between exiting high pressure and an
approaching cold front.

The cold front is expected to move through Friday evening,
kicking in strong CAA. The front should largely be dry, but
strong north to northeast winds will usher in a much cooler air
mass for Saturday with highs in the mid 60s.

Saturday night into Sunday, a compact, Alberta Clipper Style
wave is expected to dive east southeast out of Canada and make a
swipe at WI. The NBM paints slight chance PoPs (~30%) over
southern WI through much of Sunday as the wave move through,
then causes some potential for lake effect showers and
instability-driven showers over land as colder air moves in
aloft. A much more fall like air mass is then expected for
Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 50s.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 906 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Light to calm winds are expected overnight into early Wednesday
morning, with mostly clear skies. Light east winds are expected
later Wednesday morning into the afternoon, with more northeast
winds near the lakeshore terminals. Light east to southeast
winds are then expected Wednesday night, with clear skies.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 323 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

High pressure will linger over the midwest through Thursday.
Light northwest winds will persist through Wednesday, becoming
light and southeasterly Thursday.

Wind will become southwesterly and breezy as warm air advection
increases ahead of a cold front. Wind gusts to 25 knots are
expected. Winds then quickly become northerly behind the cold
front Friday night, with continuing gusts continuing to 25 knots.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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