936 FXUS63 KMKX 101450 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 950 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures climb into the 70s today, then into the 80s Wednesday, with mostly dry weather. - Occasional shower and thunderstorm chances return for the second half of the week (Wednesday evening and onwards). && .UPDATE... Issued 950 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Highs largely expected to be in the 70s today with modest winds. Weak high pressure overhead today with clouds across central parts of WI gradually clearing into the afternoon. Weak ridging overhead will help keep the region dry through tonight. Into Wednesday mostly zonal flow aloft will allow for some shortwave activity to slide in off the weak ridging to the west into the region. The low to mid level moisture will be fairly poor with perhaps a shower or two but likely remaining dry through at least the morning and likely through most of the afternoon as well. Into the evening better moisture in the midlevels fills in with shortwave activity continuing through the region and likely bringing a period of showers/storms Wednesday evening and overnight focused along the warm front. Instability looks likely to be fairly limited to the southern parts of the CWA when this comes through in large part due to timing but with decent deep layer shear we cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Kuroski && .SHORT TERM... Issued 326 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Today through Wednesday: Dry weather is expected today through mid day Wednesday. The low pressure system that brought us rain the previous two days will slowly pull northeast and linger across Ontario through mid this week. As it gradually moves away from the state, an upper level ridge will build in and sfc high pressure in the Rockies will move into the Ohio River Valley. Winds will be light to moderate with some breezy conditions (especially in the afternoons with help from diurnal mixing) as southern Wisconsin sits between these two systems. Breezy southwest winds will usher in some warmer conditions with todays highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s. Due to the breezy west winds, lakeshore areas are expected to be just as warm as inland areas. WAA will continue into Wednesday as dewpoints and temperatures climb ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds may be slightly strong Wednesday as a low level jet sets up across the state. Good low level forcing and WAA could lead to some light showers developing Wednesday morning, but chances are very low around 10%. The best chances will be across west central Wisconsin where the LLJ is expected to be stronger. Better chances for rain return Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as a cold front and upper level shortwave moves into the state. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 326 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Wednesday night through Sunday: A potent little mid level shortwave trough is expected to roll across the Plains, probably along the MN/IA border late Wednesday afternoon and into southern WI Wednesday evening. There has been a consistent signal for this feature over the past two days of model runs. It looks like a convective complex should develop over northern IA and track eastward into our area. The storm intensity and track are still uncertain, since there is not a lot of deep synoptic forcing driving this system. If we can get a lot of sunshine Wednesday and if the higher dewpoints creep into southern WI, then our environment will be primed with instability for any established storms to remain intact as they roll through. The baroclinic zone should stall over southern WI late Wed night into Thu morning, and forecast easterly winds at the surface suggest that we should be cloudy and cooler during the day Thursday, although it may feel humid. The low level jet will kick in over southern MN Thursday evening and trigger storms in that area. That complex should lift through northern WI and should miss us, although the ECMWF wants to keep it closer to us. Unrelated, a shortwave trough sitting over the central U.S. is expected to lift into IL Friday afternoon, so this weak vorticity advection may bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to southern WI Friday afternoon. Overall, the pattern is unsettled for the latter half of this week and through early next week, but no all- day rain or significant severe storms are anticipated. Right now it is looking like the "ring of fire" should set up over the SD/MN over the weekend and through the first half of next week, so the majority of storms would remain to our west or be weakening as they reach us. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 950 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Some MVFR CIGS will impact central WI this morning and perhaps lingering into the afternoon but will otherwise remain VFR through the TAF period. There will likely be some MVFR CIGS and VSBYS Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm front settles over the region bringing showers and storms to parts of southern and central WI. Otherwise Wednesday may feature breezy southwest winds for period later tonight through Wednesday morning. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 326 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A broad area of high pressure will remain to our north in Ontario through Thursday. Meanwhile high pressure in the Rockies will move east into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday before continuing east into the Mid Atlantic States for early Thursday. Light to moderate south to southwest winds are expected across the lake during this time. As diurnal mixing increases today and Wednesday, winds will approach small craft criteria for the nearshore zones. Gusts should remain just below small craft criteria both days. Waves will remain low due to the off shore winds. Heading into Wednesday evening, a cold front will drop south down the lake and become stationary across the far southern end Thursday. This frontal boundary will remain draped across the far southern lake until Friday, when a low pressure system moves into central Wisconsin from the Rockies. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday evening through Friday. Winds will remain light as the cold front moves through with areas north of the boundary having northeast winds and areas to the south having southeast winds. When the front stalls there will be a lengthy period of time with onshore winds. While winds remain light, waves will slowly build into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the end of the week. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee