048 FXUS63 KGRB 101101 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 601 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke from the Canadian wildfires may reach the surface at times on Wednesday, which may reduce air quality. - An active weather pattern is expected for the end of the week and again early next week. Heavy rain and storms will be possible during this time. The probability of exceeding an inch of rain Thursday night and Friday is 20-40 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A generally dry pattern is expected through the middle of the week, as temperatures warm to around 80 degrees on Wednesday across northeast and east-central Wisconsin away from Lake Michigan. A few light showers and sprinkles will be possible at times through the middle of the week, with minimal impacts. Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to plague the area, with smoke aloft causing filtered sunshine and indications the smoke will reach the surface at times on Wednesday. An active pattern then sets up for the end of the week as a frontal boundary sets up across the Wisconsin/Illinois border. Northern Wisconsin will be north of the boundary, which will mean cooler temperatures. The best chance for precipitation during this period (50-70 percent) will be late Thursday night into Friday as the front lifts north over southern Wisconsin and a mid level shortwave tracks through the western Great Lakes region. The excessive rain potential still looks low this run with 24 hour probabilities of exceeding an inch during this peak period only 20-40 percent. Although thunderstorms are expected, they are expected to be elevated across northern Wisconsin and not expected to be severe. Light rain showers will be possible this weekend, with rain chances much lower than the end of the week (15-30 percent). Temperatures will slowly warm this weekend, with middle to upper 70s expected by Sunday. Temperatures will then warm to around 80 early next week as rain chances increase (20-40 percent) as a low pressure system tracks along the US/Canadian border. This system could also bring another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the region. The evolution of this system will bear watching as it is too early to determine how strong the storms will be due to the uncertainty of the timing and track of the low pressure system. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 BKN-OVC stratus clouds along with MVFR/IFR conditions and sprinkles will prevail this morning. Rising ceilings and eventual clearing will result in VFR conditions across the entire area this afternoon. Mostly clear conditions are expected tonight with only a few high clouds expected. Light west winds will increase and gust to around 15 knots later this morning into this afternoon. Winds will then slacken this evening and back to the south-southwest. Some LLWS is expected late this evening and overnight across central and north-central Wisconsin as southwesterly winds gusty to 40 knots just above the surface. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski AVIATION.......Kurimski