003
FXUS63 KMKX 281845
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
145 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High swim risk conditions will continue into Wednesday
  morning along all Lake Michigan beaches due to high waves and
  currents. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect.

- Warm and humid conditions return Thursday. Showers and
  thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening through Saturday,
  but are most likely Friday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

Upper level ridging aloft will slowly move east with time with
a sfc high pressure system that will stretch from James Bay into
the Ohio River Valley through Thursday. With large scale
subsidence across Wisconsin for the next couple of days, expect
weather to be largely quiet. Daytime high temperatures will
remain warm in the lower to upper 80s with overnight lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. The coolest temperatures will be this
afternoon through tonight. With the cool temperatures, light
winds and clear skies, there is a chance for some patchy fog to
develop across low lying areas west of Madison. Any fog that
does develop late tonight should diminish quickly after sunrise
Wednesday. A lake breeze is expected during the afternoon and
evening hours both Wednesday and Thursday. The only uncertainty
with the lakebreeze is how far inland it moves each day.

Sunsets and rises may be a bit more vibrant at times
with smoke aloft possible. The smoke can be seen on visible
satellite as an slight grey shadow or milky cloud kind of
appearance. This is a vertically integrated smoke from the
Pacific Northwest. SFC smoke concentrations are expected to
remain low, thus making air quality concerns low.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

The upper-level ridge begins to break down heading into Friday
as an upper-level trough digs southward. This trough looks to
progress through the Upper Midwest during the day dragging mid-
level vorticity across the region. Accompanying this trough will
be a surface low progged to move from the Dakotas down across
the Corn Belt and into central IL/IN through the day. Given the
latest mid-range model tracks this will likely keep southern WI
on the cooler side of the system, with the warm sector further
south. However, still looking at low-level WAA and moisture to
wrap around on the north side of the low to bring increase
shower and thunderstormchances to our neck of the woods. The
rainfall amount and duration will depend on which model track
scenario materializes as a more northern track as seen by GFS
members favors a large rainfall window while a southern track
favors a small window given only a glancing chance. While not
expecting this activity to amount to much, there is enough
instability to support scattered thunderstorms and the potential
for some small hail. We will continue to monitor the forecasts
evolution over the next few days.

Behind this end of the week system, expect northwesterly flow
to continue through the weekend as the upper-level ridge builds
back across the region. Expect temps to gradually warm through
the start of next week before the upper-level ridge flattens out
and becomes more zonal. But a generally quiet pattern is
expected through the middle of next week as high pressure builds
across the region.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mostly clear
skies and light northeast winds will persist through this
evening. Skies will remain clear overnight with light and
variable winds. Patchy fog may develop for low lying areas west
of Madison with visibilities expected to remain around 6 SM or
better. Heading into Wednesday westerly winds will develop then
become south to southwesterly by Wednesday night.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Northerly winds over the lake today will be breezy with gusts
around 30 kts expected through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect for the nearshore zones until late tonight due to
the breezy north winds and building waves of 3-5 feet. As high
pressure around 30.0 inches builds into the northern Great Lakes
tonight north winds will diminish becoming light and variable at
times Wednesday. The high will maintain light south to southwest
winds across the lake through Friday.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 10 AM Wednesday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 1 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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