569 FXUS63 KMPX 091730 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and showery start to the week with temperatures in the 60s today. - Warmer and more active pattern arrives Wednesday through Friday. Potential for multiple rounds of strong storms and heavy rain through the end of the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 An impressive upper low is providing some satellite imagery eye candy early this morning across the north central US/southern Canada. As it continues to pivot across Minnesota early this morning, scattered light showers are expected to drop a trace to a few hundredths of rain. Ongoing CAA and cloud cover will keep highs today in the low to mid 60s. By late morning and early afternoon, more widespread diurnal showers are expected across the eastern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin as the low continues to pull away to the east over the Great Lakes. These showers will once again only produce a trace to a few hundredths before diminishing during the evening. Smoke aloft will return late this afternoon through the overnight hours as the low slides east, but it`s expected to remain elevated. With the upper low finally to our east, we`ll see a return to more summer-like weather for Tuesday. Highs will be some 20 degrees warmer with the Buffalo Ridge making a run at 90 and low to mid 80s elsewhere. The smoke aloft should be on its way out by Tuesday morning, but models hint at some near surface smoke settling in across western Wisconsin during the afternoon. A 700mb trough moves through in the afternoon, but the majority of models keep showers associated with this feature to a minimum. Have some low (< 20%) PoPs for Tuesday evening and overnight across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Wednesday will be the start of what looks to be an active period of weather across the Upper Midwest, with multiple chances for heavy rain and strong storms through the end of the forecast period. A stalled frontal boundary across far southern Minnesota will be the first focus for unsettled weather Wednesday afternoon. It`s worth noting that recent model runs have kept the front just shy of Minnesota/Iowa border. This would prevent the 60 Tds from getting into the MPX area and limit the chances for stronger storms. This area is highlighted by the SWODY3 Marginal Risk, which runs across northern Iowa, as well as the Marginal ERO that covers a broader area (including more of southern Minnesota) for the same time period. Ultimately, the placement of this front will be important to watch over the coming days in terms of the severe threat, but the signal for heavy rain (QPF of 1"+) in this region has been consistent. The Thursday/Friday timeframe looks better in terms of a more widespread rain event for Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A 500mb trough and a developing surface low across the central CONUS on Thursday will be the focus for this round of active weather. An overnight southerly LLJ will work increase rain chances into Friday morning. As mentioned in the previous discussion, PWATs are forecast to be around 1.5" overnight Thursday into Friday, which would lead to some efficient rain makers. Like the Wednesday system, this late week one has shifted slightly southward, which would once again put southern Minnesota under the gun for the highest QPF totals. Of course, more wobbles are expected in future forecasts, but 3 day QPF amounts currently exceed 1" for central Minnesota with as much as 2.5"+ as you head south to the Minnesota/Iowa border. More below normal temperatures will accompany this rainfall before things gradually warm up over the weekend. The extended period features continued chances for showers and storms with temperatures returning to mid June normals. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 The stratus field sprawling across the region will remain in place, but slowly rise, through the day. VFR conditions are expected by this afternoon. More diurnal shower activity is expected today, with a focus moreso on RNH and EAU. HREF thunder probabilities would say we don`t see any thunder today, with the convection being pretty shallow. Skies will clear out from west to east, but we could see some occasional MVFR cigs from central MN into western WI until the skies clear out. KMSP...Cigs will begin to lift over the next few hours, scattering out by tonight. Gusty west/northwest winds will settle overnight and become more southwesterly. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind ENE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. MVFR/chc IFR at night. TSRA likely. Wind E 10-20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...PV