792
FXUS61 KRLX 170510
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
110 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, but becoming drier as high pressure builds today.
Potential areawide frost early Thursday morning. Next impactful
system brings rain and storms on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 740 PM Wednesday...
No major changes were made to the forecast, and the frost
advisory remains in place for the lower elevation counties where
the growing season is in full swing.
As of 203 PM Wednesday...
The wind advisory for the higher elevations of Pocahontas and
Randolph counties has expired. Winds will remain breezy through
sunset, but speeds should remain below advisory criteria.
As of 109 PM Wednesday...
Quiet weather will continue in the near term. A tightened
pressure gradient will continue to bring gusty winds areawide
today, but these winds should diminish close to sunset as the
gradient relaxes. Then, winds will become light and variable
overnight with clear skies. This will allow for some frost to
develop, which is why frost advisories have been posted for
areas where the growing season has already begun.
The upper-level ridge axis will move overhead Thursday, bringing
much warmer conditions to our area by the afternoon compared to
the past few days. Expect highs close to normal for mid- April
(mid 60s mtns, upper 60s to near 70 lowlands).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...
Upper level ridge departs early in the short term and warm air
advection in will begin as southwesterly flow develops across the
area Friday after a warm front nudges through the area, with gusty
winds as high as 35 mph possible area wide again. Some light
precipitation is possible early Friday morning as this front pushes
through, though it appears that rain coverage will be more limited
to our northwest closer to the surface low. Recent guidance has come
in a little slower with frontal progression Friday which will likely
postpone any widespread precipitation across our area until at least
Saturday morning for SE Ohio/northern WV.
SPC currently has our area highlighted for a slight risk of
severe thunderstorms, aligned with the most probable location of
a likely stalled boundary by this time. It can be difficult to
pinpoint the location of these boundaries this far in advance
but it does appear that precipitation coverage will be heavily
favored across the northwestern quartile of our area, with
decreasing chances as you move southeastward further from the
boundary. At this time it also seems that severe potential could
be limited by widespread cloud cover hindering instability,
though if we manage to see breaks, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms aren`t out of the question, especially along and
west/south of the Ohio River and to a lesser extent eastward at
this time.
QPF is also somewhat limited, with up to a quarter of
an inch possible at the apex of our SE Ohio counties near
Columbus to around a tenth of an inch or so eastward to the Ohio
River and generally less than a tenth of an inch east of the
Ohio River, this will likely continue to fluctuate until there
is more certainty regarding frontal timing/location.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...
Rain chances continue for Sunday as aforementioned stalled
boundary moves through as a cold front, at least providing a chance
for showers and a few storms area wide, but again, coverage will
likely be limited and solutions diverge significantly after
Saturday. Temperatures for the weekend will be in the upper 70`s to
mid 80`s across the lowlands and low 60`s to low 70`s across the
mountains. Monday will be a bit cooler thanks to frontal passage and
ongoing cloud cover/precipitation, with temperatures in the low to
mid 70`s across the lowlands and upper 50`s to mid 60`s across the
mountains.
Precipitation then could continue into Monday night as the
stalled frontal boundary likely lifts northward again as a warm
front early Monday, with chances for a few thunderstorms with
maybe a strong storm or two possible. Rain chances should
briefly come to an end Tuesday before increasing by late
Wednesday/Thursday as another trough approaches from the west
but timing regarding these systems is anything but certain at
this juncture.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 AM Thursday...
While calm to light winds and VFR conditions persist for the
majority of the area this morning, some patchy valley fog is not
out of the question before sunrise. High pressure then supports
light winds and areawide VFR for the rest of the TAF period,
though clouds start to increase ahead of a front late today
into tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy fog possible before daybreak.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/17/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>027-029.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JZ/JLB
NEAR TERM...FK/JMC
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...JLB