269 FXUS61 KRLX 091255 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 855 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms possible today during cold frontal passage. Dry with a warming trend for the middle of the week. Showers and thunderstorms return Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 853 AM Monday... No changes necessary. Forecast on track. Still looking like a severe threat this afternoon. SPC has marked the majority of the CWA in a slight risk for severe. Greater chances look to be across SE Oh, NE KY, and Ohio River vicinity, with a possibility to the east, depending on how organized storms are able to become/timing of development. As of 120 AM Monday... A stacked low pressure system is forecast to traverse across the Great Lakes throughout the day which will consequently cause the system to drag a cold front through during the afternoon and evening hours. SPC has us in a slight risk along the Ohio River encompassing our Ohio and Kentucky counties along with parts of western West Virginia and the rest of the area in a marginal threat. Forecast soundings indicate CAPE values around 2000 J/kg which is less then the previous day, however enough to prolong updrafts and instability to support the longevity of any storms that do develop out west. The CAPE is also long skinny CAPE which will aid in supporting hydro issues along with PWAT values close to 1.5 inches and a fairly moist column, although there will be some dry air in the mid levels which will aid in severe storm threat and not the hydro threat as we get further into our CWA. QPF values are fairly low with higher amounts in the northern half of the CWA, but overall around less than half an inch for the southern half and around half an inch up to around three quarters of an inch for the southeast Ohio counties. Along with high DCAPE values, the indices are there for heavy downpours which could lead to localized hydro issues, especially to areas that have recently been hit really hard with a lot of rainfall which is around the Kentucky and Tri-state area as well as the Charleston Metro area and up north near Clarksburg. Storms would be moving rather quickly with good upper level steering flow so that is in our favor to deter some hydro concerns. Any storm will be capable of throwing down some decent rain rates but according to the Hi-res models most of the thunderstorms will be along the slight risk area with the main threat of damaging wind, although one cannot rule out hail and a possible tornado or two. The probability for tornadoes is low due to the fact that low helicity values are forecast as well as high LCLs, but there is enough instability and shear to get the potential going slightly. Elsewhere, Hi-res models have the convection falling apart getting further into West Virignia as well as drying out the column. Lapse rates will still be above environmental to get things going but less of a threat for severe storms as we get further into the CWA. If clouds persist across the area ahead of the front, less instability will support the models solution to which less active weather can be expected across the middle and eastern portions of our CWA. The hydro threat is more localized to areas that have had previously high rainfall amounts, therefore the threat can be handle by warnings, therefore elected to not issue a Flood Watch since the severe aspect is greater at this point. The cold front will be moving fast and this will help to prevent the hydro issues getting anymore of a concern as the cold front moves further east and kicks out by the evening. There will still be a chance for lingering showers along the mountains into the overnight hours and possibly into the mid morning, however chances are capped off at slight. Temperatures will rise slightly above seasonable today but with cloud coverage that might be slightly hard to achieve, but will still be enough to fuel thunderstorms. Temperatures will fall to seasonable for the overnight as the weak frontal boundary is not expected to filter in strong cold air advection, plus we are anticipating cloud coverage to stick around, therefore reducing radiational cooling to a minimum. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... A cold front should be located east of the area Tuesday morning. Some models do show enough 850-700 mb moisture remaining for a few showers possible in eastern West Virginia and southwest Virginia Tuesday afternoon. A high pressure system then builds across the region providing dry weather for Tuesday night through Thursday. As the high shifts off to the east, moisture will return by Friday, allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Models then differ on the upper air pattern and the development of a system over the weekend. Overall, expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms, but confidence in the timing of those is not high. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... As a high pressure system shifts off to the east, moisture will return by Friday, allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Models then differ on the upper air pattern and the development of a system over the weekend. Overall, expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms, but confidence in the timing of those is not high. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 635 AM Monday... A cold front will move through today promoting chances for showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. Coded up VCTS at at terminals that are prone to having thunderstorms near them and when the highest chance for activity is expected. The potential for storms will decrease as the front moves further into West Virginia, therefore the eastern sites are less likely to endure them, but cannot rule them out. Winds may become elevated during frontal passage to where gusts up to 20kts is possible, but should be very isolated and occasional in nature. Showers and storms will be fairly isolated as well so left mention of shower activity out of some of the TAFs. With clearing of clouds tonight and winds relaxing there will be potential for some fog across areas who have recently received rainfall and/or valley fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ NEAR TERM...SL/JZ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JZ