292 FXUS61 KRLX 192353 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 753 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses this evening, leading to an end of the showers and storms. Dry weather finally returns Friday into the weekend, amid building heat concerns heading into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 740 PM Thursday... Cold front is currently crossing the forecast area with a few showers still moving across the mountains and a persistent line of thunderstorms moving across our southwest VA counties. The severe activity has all but ceased, but isolated instances of strong wind gusts are possible with more organized storms that form. Westerly winds will be a bit breezy this evening behind the front, but winds are expected to be light to calm overnight as high pressure nudges in swiftly behind the front. Precipitation and cooler temperatures will likely lead to valley fog formation overnight. As of 150 PM Thursday... Key Message: * Gusty showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain ahead of a cold front this afternoon Convective activity associated with a prefrontal trough is exiting to the east as additional activity associated with the surface cold front approaches from the west at this hour. While deep layer shear is around 40KTs, lack of decent mid-level lapse rates coupled with only filtered insolation through a broken cumulus deck is expected to limit destabilization of surface based parcels in advance of the cold front this afternoon (perhaps 1000J/kg MLCAPE). Still, locally gusty winds will be possible with the stronger cores along with rainfall rates 1-2 inches per hour. Storms will generally be progressive, limiting potential water issues. Where the front is more west to east oriented, currently aiming toward the Metro Valley storm motions will be nearly parallel with the front yielding some limited opportunity for training. Given still quite wet ground conditions, some isolated high water issues are possible. Drier air sweeps into the region behind the front this evening putting any convection to bed for the next several days. Some patchy fog will be possible overnight where any heavier swaths of rain fall, mainly confined to the valleys. Despite the `cold` front passage temperatures on Friday will actually be warmer than today, in the low to mid 80s across the lowlands amid weak west-southwesterly flow and full sunshine into a drier airmass. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Thursday... Key Message: * Dry and less muggy conditions through the weekend week amid building heat Subtropical ridging aloft builds back to the west through the short period period commencing a period of hot and initially less muggy weather through the weekend. High temperatures across the lowlands on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, increasing to the lower to mid 90s by Sunday. Low level moisture advection out of the Gulf could be a little overdone by central guidance on Sunday (dew points in the lower 70s across the Middle Ohio Valley), but heat indices could still approach the triple digits in spots. Subsidence should effectively cap surface based parcels yielding a day forecast through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 150 PM Thursday... Key Message: * Heat impacts build into the new work week amid increasingly muggy conditions Monday through Thursday Low level moisture is expected to progressively build as weak flow around surface high pressure slowly advects Gulf moisture up the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys. Central guidance may be slightly over predicting the level of moisture with widespread dew points approaching the mid 70s, but even with more conservative values should still see heat impacts building with daytime heat indices across the lower elevations in the low triple digits. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s will not provide much relief from the heat for populations without air conditioning. Central guidance PoPs through the week reflect more of a drier solution than its deterministic forecast, as the aforementioned dew points would likely yield uncapped surface parcels during the afternoon hours. If afternoon airmass convection can materialize the main threat would be locally damaging wind gusts with core collapses given steep low level lapse rates and locally very heavy rain given very weak flow through the column with precipitable water values exceeding 95th percentile values, approaching 2 inches. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 750 PM Thursday... Still seeing a few showers and thunderstorm this evening as a cold front traverses the area. This activity will persist for about another hour or two before it tapers off and will really only cause impacts for sites such as BKW, CKB, and EKN. Patchy valley fog formation is likely due to recent precipitation and high pressure moving in behind the FROPA. Breezy westerly winds will slack off and become light to calm across the area outside of the mountains. Locations that see calm winds will likely see MVFR/IFR or lower conditions in fog. Otherwise, did not go heavy on restrictions for terminals that will likely keep a sustained light wind. VFR is expected to return after ~13z tomorrow with mostly dry conditions expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers and thunderstorms this evening could vary from forecast. Timing, location, and intensity of fog tonight may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H M H H L M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are forecast. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP NEAR TERM...JP/LTC SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...LTC