366
FXUS61 KRLX 150030
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
730 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front arriving overnight will maintain widespread
precipitation through tonight, with showers lingering into
Friday. Dry by late Friday and for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 500 PM Thursday...

Have increased the chance for rain through mid evening from
chance (30-50%) to likely (60-70%) across much of the
central/southern lowlands per latest radar trends, as
surface/upper forcing moves overhead. Showers will generally be
of the light to moderate variety, but a brief heavier downpour
here/there remains possible. The rest of the forecast remains on
track.

As of 100 PM Thursday...

Upper level troughing continues to pivot across the Ohio Valley
today, sending through a surface cold front overnight into
Friday morning. Preceding the frontal passage, periods of heavy
rain will be ushered in from the southwest throughout the
afternoon and evening. So far here at the forecast office, over
one and a half inches of rain have fallen since midnight, which
will aid in chipping away at the drought that has been present
in the Central Appalachians since the summer. A tightened
pressure gradient across the eastern half of the forecast area
this afternoon will also continue to yield breezy to strong wind
gusts before relinquishing its grip due to the encroaching cold
front.

Also continuing to monitor our highest mountain zones this
afternoon, as sub-freezing temperatures remain planted in spots
such as Marlinton and Snowshoe. This may cause localized
freezing rain to be embedded within the rain still, and could
cause slick paths to persist for the next few hours.

Heavier rain will become more confined to the higher terrain
late this evening into the overnight hours as the cold front
sweeps through and imposes northwest flow in its wake. This will
then tap into lake enhanced moisture to continue producing rain
over the mountains on Friday. Streamline analysis maintains a
steady northwest flow through the afternoon/evening on Friday
and even beyond into the start of the short term forecast
period. Another few hundredths of accumulations could be
squeezed out during this time, falling as all rain in response
to surface temperatures remaining above freezing.

Elsewhere on Friday, overcast skies will continue to blanket the
area in the wake of the front. Temperatures will range in the
50s across the lowlands and low 40s/50s for the mountains and
higher ridgetops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Thursday...

Light showers will continue to linger, mainly across the mountains
Friday night in northwesterly flow, behind the departing system.
Drier weather will then take hold during the day Saturday, as high
pressure surface and aloft builds into the area. It will still be
rather cool on Saturday however, as plenty of cloud cover lingers
for much of the day, and a light northerly flow continues across the
area. High temperatures Saturday will generally top out in the 40s
across the mountains and the 50s across the lowlands. Continued dry,
and warmer on Sunday, as surface high slides east allowing for a
more southerly flow to take hold. Clouds will be on the increase
throughout the day however from a passing disturbance to our
north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 105 PM Thursday...

Aforementioned disturbance moving across Canada may generate some
light precipitation across our far north and east on Monday, but
overall, moisture across our area looks to be fairly limited, and if
anything is able to materialize, it should be quick hitting. Weather
becomes more uncertain as we move later in the day Monday into the
middle of next week and beyond. However, general pattern calls for a
low to develop across the southwest U.S./southern plains region,
eventually moving northeast into the upper midwest by Tuesday, with
additional shortwave energy across the western U.S. carving out a
deep upper trough across the central U.S. This will set up the
potential for a stream of moist Gulf air to move into our region,
with the potential for another soaking rain for the middle of next
week. Upper trough/low may then linger across the Great Lakes region
at the tail end of the extended, providing additional rounds of
shower activity, and cooler conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 710 PM Thursday...

A disturbance will slowly cross the region overnight into
Friday, bringing deteriorating flight conditions, with a
gradual improvement towards the end of the TAF period. ISO-SCT
showers currently persist across much of the area, but will
gradually become confined towards the higher terrain throughout
tonight. Even so, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out across
the lowlands throughout the night. Generally MVFR CIGs at
present will lower into IFR/LIFR across much of the region by
late tonight. Additionally, MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible
within showers/drizzle/mist, with IFR also possible later
tonight, mainly in/near the higher terrain (BKW/EKN).

The chance for ISO-SCT upslope showers continues on Friday
in/near the higher terrain, with mainly dry conditions
elsewhere. Mainly IFR/LIFR CIGs to begin the day will gradually
transition to widespread MVFR by the end of the TAF period, with
the mountains remaining IFR. IFR/MVFR VSBY restrictions to begin
the day will transition to widespread VFR throughout the
morning, with brief MVFR VSBY restrictions then possible
through the remainder of the TAF period in showers.

Light southerly flow at present will veer to WNW by dawn. Light
WNW flow then continues throughout the day on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceiling and visibility restrictions may
vary from the forecast throughout the TAF period. Visibility
restrictions with mist tonight may be worse than currently
anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions remain possible along the mountains in low
stratus Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW