799
FXUS61 KRLX 170757
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
357 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and trending warmer for the end of the work week.
Next system brings rain/storms Saturday/Sunday. Another system
forecast for Monday keeping rain and storms in the forecast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...
Quiet weather persists through the day, though clouds should
gradually overspread the area as high pressure slides off to the
east and a front approaches from the west. This front is
expected to skim the area while the parent low moves into the
Great Lakes region overnight. Although much of the area should
remain dry, there is a chance that a few showers could sprout up
in the vicinity of the front tonight.
After a chilly morning, temperatures warm into the mid 60s to
low 70s in the lowlands and 50s to mid 60s in the mountains this
afternoon. Temperatures remain milder for tonight, with lows
projected to range from 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
The start of this period we have fleeting surface high pressure
moving toward the east and upper level ridging overhead. Models
now agree that this upper level ridge will postpone its exodus
which will aid in holding a frontal boundary draped from NE to
SW courtesy of its parent low pressure system. This system is
forecast to be positioned just to our north which should
traverse NE very slowly. This will leave its frontal boundary
quasi-stationary just across our northwestern periphery over SE
Ohio keeping chances of rain confined to that area Friday into
Saturday.
New model runs from most short to medium range models suggest
that the frontal boundary will hang to our north through
Saturday which means that thunderstorm activity will be less
prevalent through area. SPC has now labeled a marginal severe
day for the aforementioned area of concern which will likely
have showers and storms, some strong to severe. The only model
on board with a more aggressive solution is the short range
ensemble forecast which had the boundary slide further south
into our area which would provide chances for showers and storms
area-wide. However, this is the only model that is favoring
this solution, therefore elected to go with the blend of model
solution which equated to mainly chances across the entire area
for rain showers, but only chances for thunderstorms activity
in the northern sectors of our CWA. This upper level ridge will
be our hero in the fact that severe weather would likely be
less active on Saturday than anticipated before.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
For Sunday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will erode as
another system, a southern stream one, approaches the area
spreading its warm frontal boundary from south to north through
the day. This system is forecast to track just west of the area
and head to the north while spreading its cold front through on
Monday. This is a fast moving small system which may promote
some thunderstorm activity, but as far as severe goes, its
slightly too far out to tell and it would be unlikely that this
system would produce a severe event for us. Especially since
timing would be in the late evening and overnight. However,
this will maintain showers and storms in the forecast into
Tuesday with a frontal passage forecast for Tuesday morning.
High pressure quickly builds in after the aforementioned system
and will hold the area at bay from any precipitation or
thunderstorm activity. The surface high pressure system should
protect us into Thursday with zonal flow aloft. This will
promote another warming trend starting Wednesday where
temperatures will climb back up to above seasonable into the low
80s, which is significantly above average for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 AM Thursday...
While calm to light winds and VFR conditions persist for the
majority of the area this morning, some patchy valley fog is not
out of the question before sunrise. High pressure then supports
light winds and areawide VFR for the rest of the TAF period,
though clouds start to increase ahead of a front late today
into tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy fog possible before daybreak.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/17/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>027-029.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JZ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JLB