920
FXUS61 KRLX 081022
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
622 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather persists through Monday night with showers and
storms at times. Dry with a warming trend for the middle of the
week. Active weather returns Friday into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Sunday...
Currently, a vort max is supporting a cluster of stratiform
rain with embedded moderate to heavy showers which Hi-res models
have tracking from KY through WV into the northeast mountains
of WV. This is going into territory where flash flood guidance
is at the lowest out of all of the area, so there can be some
instances of flooding if backbuilding or training occurs. We are
in an slight risk for excessive rain and this is justified with
PWATs nearing 1.75 inches along with a very saturated column
and slow moving flow off the surface and aloft getting into the
mid levels where only 20kts of steering flow is apparent in
forecast soundings. There is enough instability in the column as
well to prolong this cluster as is traverses through our CWA.
We are in the warm sector with the frontal boundary forecast
to be to our north by this afternoon. With instability
approaching 3000 J/kg during this time frame look out for
thunderstorm potential ahead of a cold front associated with
its parent low settled over Ohio by the afternoon. As the low
pressure system shifts into PA by late afternoon the cold
frontal boundary will slide across our area from west to east
and provided additional instability and lift to promote more
shower and storm activity for the late afternoon into the
evening. Models do not have this feature amplified at all so
therefore are not stressing too much thunderstorm chances,
especially severe as shear will be on the low end with less than
30kts, with even less, especially when the front makes its way
through by the evening. Therefore, elected to lower
thunderstorm chances across the area for today.
Now having said that, a lot of the CAPE during the afternoon
can be used up throughout the day with expected shower
anticipated throughout the area. With DCAPE values exceedingly
high and with a saturated excessive rainfall environment, we
should see more hydro issues than severe with the potential for
water loading and heavy downpours causing flooding or even flash
flooding in isolated areas where guidance is low and where
flood prone areas get hit with slow moving thunderstorms. Water
loading will also suppress bouyancy and therefore weaken
updrafts preventing a higher risk for severe thunderstorms. This
slower moving activity would be in the evening time frame where
training and slow moving cells will likely be apparent and
where weaker steering flow comes into play, but the cold front
should move through by then although may get hung up in the
mountains. We are in a severe threat although only marginal,
therefore isolated severe storms are possible, but probability
is very low at this point.
With the passage of the cold front by late evening, activity
will diminish dramatically and the night and overnight hours
should be quiet until at least late morning when another system
and its cold front approaches the area from the west.
Temperatures will be about seasonable for this time of year due
to all the cloud coverages and shower activity but dewpoints
will be high in the upper 60s, even low 70s in some spots,
making a very muggy day as well as feeding the atmosphere with
plenty of moisture to work with.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...
Key Point:
* Slight risk for severe storms Monday along the Ohio River,
conditional on sufficient daytime destabilization
Upper level low pressure transiting the Upper Great Lakes on Monday
will drag a cold front through the region during the day.
Convergence along this boundary will provide a focusing mechanism
for moist parcel ascent Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
Although mid-level lapse rates are rather modest, 6.3-6.5C/km,
strong surface heating ahead of the front with temperatures rising
into the lower 80s coupled with moisture pooling immediately ahead
of the front with dew points in the upper 60s will yield MLCAPE
values in the 1000-1500J/kg range. Deep layer shear of around 40KTs
should be sufficient for updraft organization with a storm mode
likely presenting as a broken line with embedded supercells. While
all hazards would be possible with this activity, the main threat is
expected to be locally damaging wind gusts with some drier mid-level
air to work with. Low level veering of the wind field immediately
ahead of the front will yield 0-1km SRH values between 70 and 120
m^2/s^2, maximized on our northern border - however, the strongly
forced nature of the convection resulting in semi-linear mode may
serve to limit the tornadic threat. Wet bulb zeros will be in excess
of 12kft which should serve to limit hail potential to marginally
severe.
Will need to continue to monitor the timing of the front, as
these threats are highly conditional on realizing both the strong
pre-frontal warning and moisture pooling immediately ahead of the
front to realize sufficient instability. Based on current timing,
think the spatial window for severe will be fairly small with
instability rapidly fading east of the Ohio River Monday evening
with loss of daytime heating.
The progressive nature of the convection should serve to
limit water problems, however, if a locally heavy downpour was to
get over a spot where soils remain quite moist from recent localized
rainfall could still see some issues.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...
Conditions turn briefly and slightly cooler in the wake of frontal
passage on Tuesday. Couldn`t rule out a stray low topped shower,
especially north Tuesday afternoon with some modest instability in
the H850 to H700 layer, but almost everyone should stay dry.
Heights then build through the middle of the week with daytime highs
reaching the upper 80s by Thursday.
Ridging shifts east heading into the end of the week with the tap on
Gulf moisture opening up again with chances for unsettled weather
returning Friday in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...
MVFR is the worst case scenario today although in a heavier
shower one could expect temporary conditions of IFR in VIS/CIGs.
There is a slight chance for thunderstorm activity as well but
only mentioned it at sites with the highest probability. After
this first wave another wave of activity comes into play by the
afternoon when a cold front pushes through. More shower
activity will be the main culprit in restrictions to CIGs and
VIS under lower cloud coverage. Windy conditions can be expected
with frontal passage with gusts up to 20kts during the
afternoon and early evening, with isolated higher gusts
possible. By late afternoon and early evening the front should
exit east and we will have clearing of cloud coverage with VFR
coming back to the region although with clearing of clouds and
all the previous rainfall we will likely have fog develop at
most sites affecting VIS and CIGs with IFR or lower overnight
into Monday morning. There is a small chance that fog may not
develop if the winds stay elevated enough at the surface, which
will likely not happen due to clearing of cloud coverage,
consequently causing sites to decouple and bring about fog.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of shower activity affecting any
terminal could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 06/08/25
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ009>011-019-020-
030>032-039-040.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ067-076.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JZ