442 FXUS61 KRLX 111010 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 610 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper-level low brings clouds and showers today, mainly across the east. Remaining chilly through Saturday, then gradually warming up. Next cold front late Monday, then chilly midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... Overall, a rather cool and dreary day on tap. Upper low will continue to dig south across the TN Valley region today, eventually moving east of the area by late afternoon and evening, with a strengthening surface low riding north along east coast. Bulk of shower activity will generally remain across southern and eastern zones today, with much of the western half of the CWA remaining generally dry, but overcast. With a cool northerly flow expected to be in place, and plenty of cloud cover, did elect to lower high temperatures today a degree or two from previous forecast. There could be a rumble of thunder today across the far south with upper low nearby, but most areas should remain free of thunderstorms. Tonight, showers will continue to linger across far eastern zones on back side of low. Some partial clearing may try to occur across far western/northern zones. In addition, cooler air filtering into the area will result in a change over to light snow tonight across the higher terrain, and we may approach or even touch freezing across parts of SE Ohio and NE KY tonight. However, currently thinking with expected gusty winds/cloud cover, that frost will be prevented, and if locations are able to reach freezing, it will be patchy, and not long lived enough in duration to warrant headlines. Will however, have day shift reevaluate. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Friday... A high amplitude mid/upper-level trough between the Appalachians and east coast Saturday morning, drifts off the east coast Saturday through Saturday night, with a weak but stacked low congealing off the eastern seaboard. This spells the chance for showers in and near the northern and central mountains, with snow showers over the higher mountainous terrain, Saturday into Saturday night. Nothing more than a coating is anticipated Saturday morning. Otherwise, stratocumulus will envelop the area Saturday atop the mixing layer. The trough shifts farther east Sunday through Sunday night, allowing surface high pressure to cross overnight Saturday night through Sunday, and mid/upper-level ridging to cross behind it Sunday through Sunday night. This will allow conditions to become clear and calm enough to allow temperatures to fall to the lower to mid 30s for lows Sunday morning across active the growing season area, which is much of the lowlands, resulting in frost formation for which headlines may be needed as the time draws nearer. Clouds and increasing low level south to southwest flow ahead of the next system will preclude frost Sunday night, with lows just above normal, in the 40s. There is also the chance for showers moving southeast across the area, ahead of the warm front associated with that system. Any elevated mixed layer looks too elevated with the column too dry in an absolute sense for thunder at this juncture. Below normal highs Saturday, in the lower to mid 50s, 40s mountains, climb closer to normal Sunday, lower to mid 60s, 50s mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 AM Friday... The next mid/upper-level short wave trough drives a cold front toward the area Monday, and then on through the area late Monday afternoon and evening. This brings an increasing chance for showers to the area Monday afternoon, likely by Sunday night, with the chance for thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. With favored timing relative to diurnal heating, and adequate shear, thunderstorms could be strong to severe, as reflected in the Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook in the extended period. The driving mid/upper-level system is actually a series of short wave troughs, the first, subtle, tied to the front, the next two, the second most well defined, cross Tuesday and Tuesday night, with clouds and the chance for showers, including the chance for snow over the higher mountainous terrain late Tuesday into Tuesday night. As the system moves off the east coast Wednesday through Wednesday night, surface high pressure crosses Wednesday night into Thursday, and mid/upper-level ridging crosses behind it Thursday into Thursday night. This may allow conditions to become clear and calm enough to allow temperatures to fall to the lower to mid 30s for lows Wednesday morning across active the growing season area, resulting in frost formation. Frost is more likely overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as the high crosses. The next system brings the next chance for showers late Thursday through Friday, with thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon. Temperatures soar well into the 70s across the lowlands ahead of the front Monday, before falling below normal Tuesday through Wednesday night, and then climbing back to about normal for Thursday through Friday. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 128 AM Friday... Widespread MVFR and areas of IFR ceilings have overspread the area, with local LIFR/VLIFR conditions across the mountains. Mountains are most likely to experience areas of LIFR/VLIFR conditions in low ceilings/vsbys, with KEKN and KBKW likely to remain IFR or worse for most of the TAF period. For Friday, most of the precipitation will remain confined across the mountains, and around KCKB and KCRW, with slight chances for a thunderstorm, mainly across southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. In addition, northwesterly winds could become gusty at times after 17Z, with occasional gusts in the teens. Winds will gradually become light after 22Z, but widespread MVFR and areas of IFR and local LIFR/VLIFR, particularly across the mountains, will continue for the remainder of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions associated with fog and/or low stratus may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H L H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M L M H H H H H H L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H M L M L M M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in stratus Saturday morning, mainly in and near the mountains. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, and in stratus overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning, the stratus mainly in and near the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL