491
FXUS61 KRLX 231651
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1151 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Milder today with dry warm frontal passage. Cold front tonight
brings lower elevation rain and a rain/snow mix near mountains.
Some patchy freezing drizzle possible near mountains on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 859 AM Monday...

With a quiet start to the day and a good deal of sunshine
overhead, no changes were needed to this morning`s forecast. The
next chance of rain still looks to arrive overnight with some
light wintry precipitation in the mountain ridges throughout
Tuesday.

As of 620 AM Monday...

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover to reflect some thin mid-
level cloudiness starting to filter into our extreme northwestern
forecast area. Otherwise forecast was on track with the ridgetops
starting to warm up under increasing southwesterly flow.

As of 1240 AM Monday...

Clear and crisp out there at this hour with temperatures already
dipping into the upper teens across the lower elevations. Should
see some ridgetop warming heading into daybreak as southwesterly
flow begins to increase ahead of dry warm frontal passage today.
This should yield a decent ridge/valley temperature split to
start out the day. With warm frontal passage will see a 30F
diurnal swing today as highs across the lower elevations rise
into the upper 40s. Cold frontal passage is then expected late
overnight into Tuesday morning with a quick hit of mainly rain
for the lower elevations, some rain/snow mix for the foothills,
and snow for the mountains heading into Tuesday morning. Amounts
through daybreak look fairly light with QPF generally a tenth of
an inch or less. In the wake of frontal passage significant
drying aloft moves in above H850 which could yield a loss of
cloud ice transitioning into some freezing drizzle across our
northeast counties and in the mountains where surface
temperatures remain below freezing, mainly just after the near
term forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

A clipper system will bring precipitation on Tuesday. For the
most part, rain is expected across the lowlands with snow in
the mountains being the likely the ptype. Some freezing rain
will get into the northeast mountains as well which will cause a
glaze over certain areas. For this reason, elected to hoist a
Winter Weather Advisory from 10Z to 00Z. This system will
quickly exit the afternoon leaving behind some light snowfall
accumulations and some lingering freezing rain.

A disturbance then approaches the area on Wednesday providing
some chances for precipitation in the form of mostly rain. Some
freezing rain again will likely get into the northeast
mountains, however chances are very low for this happening.
Models have high pressure holding off most of the activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Monday...

Models show a high pressure system providing dry weather for
Thursday into Friday. The next system arrives later Friday and
Friday night, providing showers.

Models then diverge with a series of upper level disturbances
for the remainder of the weekend. There should be periods with
chances of precipitation, but there is low confidence in the
timing of these disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

VFR conditions are expected through the balance of this forecast
period. Ceilings will begin to progressively lower late tonight
with the approach of a cold front.

Winds generally southwesterly and light.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in low stratus and fog Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...JP/JMC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...RPY/JZ/JLB
AVIATION...JP