687
FXUS61 KRLX 222306
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
706 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Heat wave continues through at least midweek. The chance for
diurnal showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday afternoon
onward.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 PM Sunday...
No major changes were made to the forecast. T/Td/RH were updated
for current conditions and trends. We remain on track for a warm
and muggy overnight, with some patchy valley fog courtesy of
clear skies and calm winds.
As of 135 PM Sunday...
Key Points:
* Hot and dry with heat indices reaching or exceeding 100 degrees in
the lowlands each afternoon.
* Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory begin this afternoon and
continue with a heat wave through mid week.
A stout ridge of high pressure remains centered over the area,
fostering dry but rather hot weather throughout the middle Ohio
Valley and Central Appalachians both today and Monday. Daily high
temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s in the lowlands,
while the mountains range from 80s to mid 90s. In addition to the
heat, humidity will make it feel more oppressive and should buoy the
heat index into the 100s within the lowlands each afternoon and
evening.
Heat headlines begin this afternoon and then persist along with the
heat wave through the middle of the week. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for portions of the lowlands where the heat index is likely
to exceed 100 degrees, while the Extreme Heat Warning covers areas
where the heat index should surpass 105. Light winds and warm,
muggy nights will do little to alleviate the heat risk this
week. Impacts may also be compounded by several consecutive days
of heat.
Forecast/Record High Temperatures:
Sunday, June 22:
KCRW: 93....98/1988
KHTS: 95....98/1988
KCKB: 93....97/1923
KPKB: 94....98/1988
KBKW: 89....92/1931
KEKN: 91....93/1923
Monday, June 23:
KCRW: 95....100/1929
KHTS: 96....100/1930
KCKB: 95....96/1957
KPKB: 95....94/1964
KBKW: 89....91/1931
KEKN: 92....89/1899
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...
Key Message:
* High pressure surface and aloft brings hot, humid afternoons
and warm, muggy overnights.
A broad ridge aloft centered nearly overhead of the CWA will
provide a continuation of the heat wave across the region amid
mainly dry weather. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday
will be in the mid 90s across much of the lowlands, with low to
mid 80s across the mountains. Dew points in the upper 60s to low
70s across the lowlands will result in heat indices in the 100
to 110 degree range across the lowlands, where heat headlines
(Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory) remain in effect until
8 PM Wednesday evening. Overnight temperatures will not provide
much relief, with lows forecast to be in the upper 60s to mid
70s across the lowlands, with 60s in the mountains. Some river
valley fog is expected across the deeper valleys of VA/WV.
While rather low probability, isolated pulse showers/storms
cannot entirely be ruled out Tuesday afternoon/evening if
forcing for ascent were able to overcome a significant cap given
the buoyancy that will be present, with the `best` chance for
this to occur being across the spine of the higher terrain with
anabatic convergence, with slight chance PoPs inserted into the
forecast there. A slightly higher and more expansive chance for
ISO showers/storms exists Wednesday afternoon/evening as the
ridge begins to gradually flatten/shift.
Record high temperatures are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecast/Record High Temperatures:
Tuesday, June 24:
KCRW: 96....96/1929
KHTS: 97...105/1930
KCKB: 96....97/1923
KPKB: 97....96/1930
KBKW: 91....90/1949
KEKN: 93....90/1949
Wednesday, June 25:
KCRW: 96...103/1930
KHTS: 98...101/1921
KCKB: 95....96/1930
KPKB: 96...100/1988
KBKW: 91....91/1914
KEKN: 92....92/1914
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...
Key Message:
* Heat impacts build through the remainder of the work week amid
multiple days of heat and humidity, with warm, muggy nights
providing little relief, even as peak heat indices tail off a
bit.
Hot/humid weather will continue through the long term period,
particularly on Thursday/Friday, as the ridge aloft continues to
gradually flatten, with some guidance even shifting the ridge
axis further to the west. In terms of sensible weather, this
results in progged high temperatures Thursday/Friday once again
in the mid 90s across the lowlands, with heat indices in the 100
to 105 range. Given such, an extension of the heat headlines may
certainly be needed as time goes on, but will leave the
headlines as is for the time being. Overnight lows will continue
to be on the warm side, with upper 60s to mid 70s forecast for
the lowlands. Slightly `cooler` temperatures may work into the
area on Saturday (upper 80s to low 90s - lowlands).
With the multiple hot, humid days, and warm, muggy nights
providing little relief, discomfort and impacts from the heat
could continue to accumulate over time even with a slight easing
of the afternoon heat.
A gradual increase in diurnal shower/storm chances is expected
Thursday through Saturday as the upper ridge flattens/shifts and
weak upper waves potentially impact the area. PoPs of 20-30% on
Thursday increase to 40-50% by Saturday afternoon.
Record high temperatures are possible the balance of the work week.
Forecast/Record High Temperatures:
Thursday, June 26:
KCRW: 95....99/1934
KHTS: 97....99/1954
KCKB: 94....97/1988
KPKB: 95....97/1952
KBKW: 89....93/1934
KEKN: 91....90/2005
Friday, June 27:
KCRW: 94...103/1931
KHTS: 94...100/1921
KCKB: 93....97/1969
KPKB: 94....96/1966
KBKW: 88....92/1931
KEKN: 90....92/2005
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM Sunday...
VFR conditions are expected across the area generally through
the TAF period, and winds should also remain on the light side.
The lone exception is expected to be a bit of valley fog that
forms again tonight, and may impact a few of our terminals. EKN
is, as usual, the most susceptible, but 6SM BR was put in as
prevailing or TEMPO for all other sites except BKW for a period
in the pre-dawn hours. Expect tomorrow will be another day with
a scattered cumulus field in the FL030-050 range.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and timing of fog tonight may vary
from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ024-025-032>034-
039-040.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ066-067-083-084.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ075-076-
085>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ101-102-105.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ103.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK/20/GW
NEAR TERM...FK/20
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...FK