418
FXUS61 KRLX 231028
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
628 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Heat wave continues through at least midweek. The chance for
diurnal showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday afternoon
onward. An active pattern sets up for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 625 AM Monday...
Fog over-performed in and near the mountains, mainly in the
valleys thereof, early this morning. The forecast was updated
accordingly, and is otherwise on track.
As of 245 AM Monday...
Upon further review, have opted to expand the Heat Advisory
into the lower elevations of the central WV mountains for heat
indices in the lower 100s this afternoon. Like the existing Heat
Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings, this continues through
Wednesday, with temperatures and dew points forecast to be at
least as high as today over the next couple of days.
As of 225 AM Monday...
Key Point:
* Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories continue across the
lowlands and southern mountains for heat indices in the 100s
this afternoon.
High pressure surface and aloft sits over the area this period,
maintaining the high heat and humidity. The light flow
associated with the high was already allowing fog to form, and
it could become locally dense before dawn.
A cumulus field is likely to form after sunrise this morning,
and then dissipate near sunset this evening. The high should
suppress convection today, although the mid level inversion is
not likely to maintain a cap if a parcel were to become lifted.
CAMs do suggest an isolated cell could pop along the Tug Fork.
Slightly stronger flow tonight, as the high drifts a bit
southward, may tend to stunt fog formation.
Central guidance temperatures reflect the heat firmly entrenched
today, with a warm muggy night providing little relief again
tonight. Even after a slight downward adjustment for afternoon
mixing, dew points are still forecast to be in the lower 70s
across the lowlands this afternoon. With lowland highs in the
mid to upper 90s, heat indices reach the lower to mid 100s
across the lowlands this afternoon. The Extreme Heat Warnings
and Heat Advisories are maintained as are for now, though
forecast heat indices into the lower 100s creep into the lower
elevations of the central mountains.
Forecast high temperatures suggest record highs for today are
in jeopardy, especially across the north and in the mountains.
Forecast and Record High Temperatures:
Today, June 23:
KCRW: 96...100/1929
KHTS: 97...100/1930
KCKB: 96....96/1957
KPKB: 97....94/1964
KBKW: 91....91/1931
KEKN: 94....89/1899
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...
Tuesday may very well be the hottest day during this heat wave
with heat indices reaching into the 110s in certain locations
across the lowlands. A few models (EURO/NAM) have diurnal
precipitation along the mountains and east of there. There are
a few spots where there is a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm along the highest elevations, otherwise the area
will remain dry and very hot under the dome of high pressure.
For Wednesday, almost a mirror image when it comes to
temperatures, however around one degree less than Tuesday. A
subtle shortwave in the upper levels will provide just enough
motion in the atmosphere to keep chances of shower or
thunderstorm potential across the area which will remain mainly
diurnal in nature. Overnight into Thursday will go back to
remaining dry under high pressure.
Record high temperatures are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecast/Record High Temperatures:
Tuesday, June 24:
KCRW: 97....96/1929
KHTS: 98...105/1930
KCKB: 96....97/1923
KPKB: 97....96/1930
KBKW: 92....90/1949
KEKN: 93....90/1949
Wednesday, June 25:
KCRW: 96...103/1930
KHTS: 97...101/1921
KCKB: 95....96/1930
KPKB: 97...100/1988
KBKW: 91....91/1914
KEKN: 93....92/1914
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...
Beginning Thursday, surface high pressure weakens and the upper
level dome shifts southward allowing for better chances at
diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the
area. Guidance gives chance values around 30 percent for the
daytime with the same chances for thunderstorms. For Thursday
night, the upper level ridge flattens and will allow a
disturbance to approach and promote unsettled weather ahead of
the system which will be dragging a weak frontal boundary along
with it. This slow moving feature will provide better chances
for more diurnal and non-diurnal shower and thunderstorm
activity going into Friday and the weekend. The cold frontal
passage should take place sometime on Saturday which will raise
chances to likelies for the daytime hours and into the evening.
Thereafter, the area remains very active with more disturbances
forecast to impact the area. This will keep very high chances
going out to the rest of the forecast period and even beyond.
Record high temperatures are possible for Thursday and Friday.
Forecast/Record High Temperatures:
Thursday, June 26:
KCRW: 95....99/1934
KHTS: 96....99/1954
KCKB: 93....97/1988
KPKB: 94....97/1952
KBKW: 90....93/1934
KEKN: 90....90/2005
Friday, June 27:
KCRW: 94...103/1931
KHTS: 96...100/1921
KCKB: 93....97/1969
KPKB: 94....96/1966
KBKW: 87....92/1931
KEKN: 89....92/2005
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 625 AM Monday...
High pressure maintains mainly VFR conditions with light flow
surface and aloft amid a heat wave. The one exception is fog,
mainly in the valleys. The fog should be well on its way to
burning off at the start of the forecast, 12Z, except up to an
hour longer at EKN this morning.
With 5 kts to 10 kts of flow through the lowest 5 kft, went
toward lower side of guidance to reflect IFR fog at EKN and MVFR
mist elsewhere except BKW overnight tonight into early Tuesday
morning.
In the meantime, morning cumulus will form this morning with
bases around 3 kft, before lifting to 4 kft or higher by
afternoon. High pressure should suppress thunderstorms today,
and the cumulus field should dissipate around sunset this
evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may form earlier and/or be worse than
forecast again Tuesday morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 06/23/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L H H H M H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ024-025-032>034-
039-040-515-517-519.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ066-067-083-084.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ075-076-
085>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ101-102-105.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ103.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...TRM