198
FXUS61 KRLX 281830
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
230 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast involving the second round of showers and thunderstorms
along and south of the Ohio River this afternoon and evening remains
on track. A few storms may be severe, with heavy rainfall. No
changes were made to the extended forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a
cold front this afternoon, with damaging winds, hail, heavy rain,
and a tornado or two all possible.

2) Additional chances showers and some storms will continue into
Wednesday for the mountain areas, with drier weather elsewhere
through Friday followed by a return of storm chances this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
In the mid/upper-levels, the synoptic pattern has changed little
from 24 hours ago, with a large cyclone continuing to wobble over
the Hudson Bay and a subtropical ridge that is slowly retrograding
westward over the southern Rocky Mountains. The position of these
two primary synoptic features has maintained a belt of intense flow
over the CWA, with the 250 mb and 500 mb jet streaks objectively
analyzed at 90 kt and 40 kt, respectively. A shortwave trough that
previously detached from the western edge of the vertically-stacked
low over the Hudson Bay continues to pivot towards the Adirondack
and Catskill Mountains, which will maintain the belt of amplified,
northwesterly flow over the CWA for the remainder of today. This
will contribute to effective shear magnitudes near 45 kt, in
addition to 60+ kt of shear throughout the cloud-bearing layer,
supporting the potential for organized storm development along the
southeastward-moving cold front as the airmass continues to recover
in the wake of the morning MCS.

At the surface, a low was rotating onshore Lake Erie near ERI, with
a warm front branching southward across southeastern OH and into
southern WV. The cold front extends southwestward from the low
towards CMH-IND along the I-70 corridor. A rapid, east-northeast
progression of the warm front will occur over the next several hours
as the shortwave trough digging into Upstate NY begins to become
closed, which will aid in boundary-layer recovery as the low stratus
deck begins to erode and southwesterly winds become slightly breezy
within the pre-cold-frontal airmass. The resultant advection of
already high theta-e air amidst pockets of differential diabatic
heating within the cloud breaks will cause the boundary-layer to
destabilize by 18Z as temperatures rise into the middle 80s, with
rapid storm development expected along and ahead of the cold front
within the weakly capped, pre-frontal airmass. SPC Mesoscale
Analysis indicates a corridor of NCAPE of 0.2 nosing into areas
along and southeast of the Ohio River, which corresponds to MLCAPE
approaching 2,500 J/kg across the southern half of the CWA.

The large CAPE values, combined with the aforementioned effective
and cloud-layer shear magnitudes, will galvanize a risk for
organized storms this afternoon and early evening as the cold front
advances southeastward towards the Coal Fields. The orientation of
the deep- and cloud-layer shear vectors will foster supercells
embedded within broken, multi-cellular lines unzipping along the
cold front. Right-moving supercells may become tornadic, and a
tornado or two will be possible along and south of the I-64 corridor
into the Coal Fields this afternoon. An attendant risk for damaging
wind gusts between 50-60 mph and large hail up to half dollar size
will also be possible with supercells, with the wind-damage risk
focused near the rear-flank downdraft(s). Right-moving supercells
are notorious for slowing in forward-speed and yielding a risk for
flash flooding due to the extreme hydrometeor loading within the
updrafts. Therefore, a localized risk for flash flooding will
accompany any supercell(s), some of which may produce swaths of
upper echelon rain rates that exceed 2"/hr. Mean wind vectors of 40
kt will keep convection progressive otherwise. Elsewhere across the
CWA, general showers and storms are forecast, with brief downpours
possible as the cells move via advection across the central and
northern portions of the CWA. Storm chances will wane following the
passage of the cold front, with benign weather expected area-wide
tonight into Wednesday morning, less the development of valley fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The shortwave trough, accompanied by a closed low embedded within,
will continue to progress slowly eastward over Upstate NY and New
England through the end of the work week. Northwesterly flow on the
backside of the trough will support a renewed potential for showers
in the mountains Wednesday afternoon. Updrafts may struggle to reach
heights high enough to produce lightning due to the depletion of
CAPE and increasing subsidence aloft; however, lightning cannot be
ruled out entirely across the mountains. Otherwise, a refreshing,
northwesterly breeze is forecast area-wide Wednesday, with stratocu
developing by late Wednesday morning. Dry and warm weather is
forecast through Friday, with storm chances forecast to return this
weekend due to a shortwave trough digging into the Upper Midwest as
the subtropical ridge retrogrades over the Desert Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A line of heavy showers and TSTMs have developed in the vicinity of
KHTS & KCRW. This activity is expected to advance south and east
over the next several hours. This will impact and reach KBKW 1830Z
through 1930Z. There is a 50% chance of wind gusts reaching 50 kt
and hail to 1 inch in diameter in the vicinity of the Beckley
airfield. Visbilities likely to fall to IFR or lower. Any lingering
activity across the area should clear around 29/03Z.

Winds will shift to the NW and gradually lighten overnight. Valley
low clouds and fog (IFR or lower reductions) will develop starting
around or after 29/06Z - lasting thru potentially mid-morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of prevailing groups may be off +/- 2
hours and may be off by a category or two.

 &&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sincavage
AVIATION...Black/Cohen@LOX