806 FXUS61 KRLX 050942 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 542 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and storm activity possible by mid afternoon. A slow moving cold front approaches late in the work week, with showers and thunderstorms at times through the weekend. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM Thursday... After a quiet weather morning a cold front draped across to our west slowly approaches bringing showers and storms to the area starting as early as this mid afternoon. High CAPE values reaching almost 3000 J/kg will be sufficient to hold updrafts and with PWATs near 1.75 inches this will cause for water loading and possible heavy downpours as we are in an excessive risk for heavy rainfall across our southeast Ohio and KY counties. This could cause damaging gusty winds inside heavy thunderstorm activity or severe storms which will be possible as well in the same aforemention areas. Shower activity will likely continue into the evening and overnight but thunderstorm activity will likely diminish some although will still be possible. Thinking most of the activity will be diurnal in nature. Shear is not impressive so much of the activity should wane after sunset. Temperatures will be high enough today to supply some fuel for storms with mid to upper 80s across much of the area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Thursday... Abundant moisture over the area in advance of a cold front will combine with an upper level short wave to produce showers and thunderstorms on Friday. With some mid level dry air and most unstable CAPES in the 1500 to 2500 range, could see some storms produce damaging wind gusts. Some large hail is also possible with a freezing level around 13K feet. Models show the cold front pushing into the area Friday night and possibly stalling over the region on Saturday. Soundings remain unstable, so numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected. With a cold front providing a focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms, there is some concern that flash flooding could become an issue. Models show another upper level short wave moving across the area for Sunday. This will once again enhance the chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM Thursday... An upper level trough moves into the region Monday into Tuesday. This will provide additional chances of showers and thunderstorms, but will also push a cold front through the area. This will lead to better chances of drier weather for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 620 AM Thursday... High pressure continues to keep the area dry and mainly VFR. There is a little haze expected today but should not affect sites too much except for a few sites hovering around MVFR with HZ. This should diminish by early afternoon opening up VFR for the area. A cold front draped across to our west will destabilize the area and allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. This could promote restrictions to VIS, but CIGs should stay VFR, however some MVFR CIGs may get into the mountains. This would potentially affect BKW/EKN (possibly CKB) and southeast Ohio (PKB) during the afternoon and evening. High end MVFR with 030FT CIGs or slightly less will be the likely culprit. Winds will be mainly light and variable today with isolated and occasional gusts in the teens during the afternoon and early evening. By late Thursday, brief IFR under shower or storm activity is possible, but should be isolated enough to not cause too many restrictions to the sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 06/05/25 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L M L M M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms through Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JZ