146 FXUS66 KPQR 022335 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 435 PM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .Updated Aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...PacNW will be under northwest flow between a ridge over the northeast Pacific and the base of a large trough across the Great Basin. Conditions will be dry with slightly above average temps. Temps trend upward toward the end of the week and into the weekend with the warmest conditions of the year so far possible on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday...A dry, pleasant pattern will remain in place across the area through mid week. A ridge of high pressure across the northeast Pacific with the base of a large trough extending into the Great Basin, supporting northwest flow in the upper levels across the PacNW. Temps through Wednesday will top out in the mid to upper 70s inland and low to mid 60s along the coast. Weak shortwaves are expected to move through the northwest flow and will bring periods of increased cloud cover including Wednesday when models indicate decent cloud cover to begin the day, possibly impacting afternoon highs by a degree or two. High pressure strengthens and begins to shift slightly westward toward the PacNW coast, supporting an upward trend in temps beginning Thursday. 850mb temps are expected to rise to around 10- 12 C, supporting inland temps in the low 80s and mid to upper 60s along the coast. Friday will see a 2-4 degree drop in temps as a short wave trough passes over the PacNW. The warm-up is expected to ramp up into the weekend, though there is some model discrepancies to consider. The thermal trough will deepen and cause winds to shift to the northeast. Overnight temperatures on Saturday into Sunday will be higher than normal which will create a spring board for highs on Sunday. Right now, the NBM is suggesting quite a range for highs with the 10th percentile around 80 degrees at the Portland Airport and similar temperatures through the Willamette Valley and southern Washington. The 90th percentile is significantly higher with areas breaking 100 degree mark. The coastal areas are also seeing a 20 degree spread between the 10th- 90th percentile, generally mid 60s to mid 80s. Confidence is still incredibly low in regards to this system as it easily could shift if winds stay more northerly or shift to the northwest. However, with these kinds of pattern, we could see major Heat Risk for portions of southwest WA and northwest OR. Will continue to monitor though as this forecast has a lot of room to change over the next 7 days. -Batz/Muessle && .AVIATION...VFR conditions favored to continue throughout the period inland, with northwest winds of 8-12 kt gusting to around 20 kt diminishing to 5 kt or less by 06z Tue. There are low probabilities (10-20%) of marine stratus reaching inland and producing MVFR cigs from 12-18z Tue. Winds will increase to 5-10 kt out of the northwest by 18z Tue beneath diurnal cu at 3-5 kft. Along the coast, north winds of 10-15 kt gusting 20-25 kt will weaken to 10 kt or less by 03-06z Tue as marine stratus moves into coastal terminals, yielding MVFR cigs by 12z Tue. Skies trend clearer after 18z Tue as winds increase to 10-15 kt, with a 30-40% chance of lingering MVFR cigs through the afternoon. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions favored throughout the period. Northwest winds of 10 kt gusting near 20 kt will diminish through the evening to 5 kt or less after 06z Tue. There are low chances (10-20%) of MVFR marine stratus spreading inland from 12-17z Tue with skies otherwise expected to remain largely clear. Winds increase out of the northwest at 5-10 kt by 18z Tue. -Picard && .MARINE...Not much change as a summer time pattern has settled in with high pressure persisting offshore through the week, and a thermally induced low pressure trough remains over the northern California/southern Oregon coast. North to northwesterly winds will continue across the coastal waters with diurnally driven wind gusts easing somewhat by mid-week. Expect wind gusts to increase again this afternoon as pressure gradients tighten, peaking around 25-30 kt through Monday evening. Similar conditions again Tuesday, though pressure gradients slacken a bit. Winds continue to ease slightly mid to late week, with wind gusts more likely peaking around 20-25 kt. For now, have extended the Small Craft Advisory through early Wednesday morning. The general sea state will continued to be dominated by northerly wind waves and a fresh northwesterly swell with significant wave heights around 8 to 11 ft with a period of around 8-9 seconds. Expect seas to remain steep and choppy. This will bring a chance for Hazardous Seas criteria being met due to wave steepness, mainly across the outer waters, through Tuesday morning. Seas gradually subside to around 6 to 7 ft by early Wednesday. Have also issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Columbia River Bar from mid Monday afternoon through Monday evening for northwesterly wind gusts up to 25 kt. -DH/TK && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland