720
FXUS66 KOTX 200631
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds Saturday with gusts 25-30 mph and isolated gusts
  up to 40 mph.

- Snow to impact the Cascades through the end of the week. There
  is a 63% chance of 1.5 feet or more of snow at Stevens Pass
  through Saturday afternoon.

- Light to moderate snow possible on higher benches in the
  valleys near the Cascades, northern valleys and Idaho
  Panhandle Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will remain in an active pattern through the
end of this week and into next week with several opportunities for
impactful mountain snow, light lowland rain and snow, and breezy
winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: Precipitation has mostly moved out of the
lowlands and resulted in partly cloudy skies. Temperatures feel more
seasonal for this time of year than before, with maximum
temperatures expected in the high 30s to low 40s and minimum
temperatures expected in the high 20s to low 30s. These temperatures
are still ~5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, but
given how anomalously warm it has been, it definitely feels more
like winter. The low pressure system sitting over British
Columbia will result in steady continued mountain snow due to
orographic lift. NBM probabilities for 24-hour snow totals show
a 63% chance for Stevens Pass to see an additional 1.5 feet of
snow. Due to this steady snowfall, a Winter Storm Warning has
been issued for this area through Saturday afternoon, even
though Stevens Pass has been closed. Other mountain passes will
see less, with a 62% chance for Lookout Pass and a 29% chance
of Blewett Pass seeing an additional three inches of snow. Winds
will be breezy again tonight but thankfully probabilities of
wind gusts above 35mph have lowered to less than 20% for much of
the area. A brief break from dry conditions will occur as a
shortwave passes through British Columbia, with snow levels less
than 2000 feet indicating a mix of rain and snow. However,
impacts will be minimal with little accumulation expected.

Sunday through Monday: On Sunday, an upper level low will strengthen
off the Canadian west coast, bringing further mountain snow and
additional light lowland precipitation. While snow levels will start
out low (1500 feet and above), they will rise to 2000-3500 feet by
Monday morning. 0-4km max wet bulb temperatures being lower than 0C
favor snow to start the event, but then switch to rain later. Still,
there may be some impacts for the Monday morning commute, especially
if road temperatures drop to below freezing. Mountain passes will
continue to see snow, with Stevens Pass seeing up to 9 more inches
and Lookout Pass receiving up to 6 more inches.

Tuesday through Friday: For the latter half of the work week, 100%
of ensemble clusters favor the upper low staying off the coast and
strengthening. This would result in a continued active weather
pattern throughout the forecast area. Additionally, long term
signals such as the CPC are showing increased chances for above
normal precipitation for both their 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks. 0-
4km wet bulb temperatures favor this late week precipitation
starting as snow, then changing to rain. Lowland snow
accumulation looks minimal but northern valleys and mountains
will continue to see snow. Given that Christmas falls during
this time, those planning their holiday travel should keep an
eye on the forecast for any potential impacts. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Breezy to locally gusty southwest, upslope flow will
result in scattered to broken MVFR cigs across North Idaho and
expanding into portions of NE WA. There is a 40-60% chance for
light snow to develop in North Idaho decreasing toward 20-30%
across the border into E WA. Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint carry
the highest probabilities for light accumulations though surface
temperatures will be near or above freezing after 18z Saturday.
Winds and precipitation will taper off near 00z as the flow
begins to reverse to the south and southeast in response to the
next system deepening off the WA Coast.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is
moderate uncertainty in regards to coverage and cloud height for
NE WA and N ID. Some guidance suggest cigs as low as 1000 feet
AGL while others keep these lower clouds scattered and broken
heights 2000-3000 feet. This coincides with lower confidence for
coverage of the -SN and when this may expand into the TAF
sites. Moderate to high confidence for elevated winds with gusts
20-30kts. Low confidence for gusts stronger than 30kts but there
is a 10-15% chance for brief gusts of this magnitude at KGEG.
/sb


-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        30  40  28  41  32  42 /  10  40  20  40  80  40
Coeur d`Alene  30  39  29  41  33  41 /  40  70  40  40  90  60
Pullman        30  39  28  39  32  41 /  30  40  10  50  80  50
Lewiston       33  45  32  43  36  46 /  10  20   0  40  70  30
Colville       25  38  25  38  26  38 /  10  50  50  50  80  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  39  31  38 /  60  90  80  50  90  90
Kellogg        30  35  28  39  33  39 /  70  90  40  50  90  80
Moses Lake     29  45  28  41  28  43 /   0  10   0  20  40  10
Wenatchee      29  40  28  37  28  38 /  20  40  30  40  50  20
Omak           25  37  29  37  28  37 /  10  30  30  40  60  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Saturday for Western
     Chelan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$