391
FXUS66 KOTX 181744
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1044 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty winds today. Elevated to critical fire weather
conditions.
- Much cooler with increasing precipitation chances Friday
through the weekend.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and dry with an increasing risk for elevated fire weather
conditions from gusty winds and dry conditions today. Wind gusts
of 15 to 30 mph will common across the region. A pattern shift
arrives Friday into the weekend delivering much cooler
temperatures and chances for showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday: A shortwave trough will eject inland out ahead of a
larger low pressure system spinning off the coast, sending a cold
front sweeping across the Inland Northwest Wednesday evening.
Westerly winds will pick up through the Cascade gaps and over the
Columbia Basin through the day as the pressure gradient across the
Cascades strengthens ahead of the front. Winds will peak in the late
afternoon and evening with sustained speeds of 15 to 20 mph and
gusts to 35 mph. With dry and warm conditions still in place, gusty
winds will result in elevated to critical fire weather concerns,
enabling rapid spread of new and existing fires. A few areas of
higher terrain including the Cascades Crest and northern mountains
of WA and ID have a low chance (20%) of seeing light rain with this
shortwave, but overall moisture is looking minimal. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for the lee of the Cascades and the western
Columbia Basin for Wednesday afternoon and evening due to the
expected gusty winds and relative humidities falling into the teens
and 20s. Relative humidities will be quick to recover Wednesday
night following the passage of the front.
Thursday through Monday: Warm temperatures in the upper 70s and low
80s will linger through Thursday, then models are in strong
agreement on substantial cooling as the closed low offshore pushes
inland. Friday will feature high temperatures in the low to mid 70s,
and by Saturday, highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s. In
addition to cooling temperatures, the system will bring much needed
precip across the region.
Probabilities for greater than or equal to 0.10 inches, 0.25 inches,
0.50 inches, and 1 inch of total rainfall for various locations
between Friday morning and Monday morning are as follows:
Northern WA (Omak, Republic, Colville): 95%, 90%, 55%, 20%
Far Eastern WA (Spokane, Pullman): 85%, 70%, 30%, 15%
Central WA (Moses Lake, Ephrata, Wenatchee): 60%, 35%, 15%, 5%
Cascade Crest (Stevens Pass, Washington Pass): 100%, 90%, 65%, 30%
North ID (Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint): 100%, 90%, 80%, 65%
Central ID Panhandle (Lewiston, Craigmont): 80%, 60%, 20%, 5%
Over the Cascades, snow levels will drop to 5500 feet, so
precipitation falling in the form of light snow can`t be ruled out
for those higher elevations. Prepare for a chilly weekend if you
plan on adventuring in the backcountry. Heading into early next week
the trough will move east of the region and weaken, bringing an end
to our precipitation. /Fewkes
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Marine clouds have stacked up along the Cascade crest
this morning with local mountain obsrns. VFR conditions will
prevail. Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts 20-25
mph. Gusts for the sheltered northern valleys (Republic,
Colville, Priest Lake, Bonner Ferry will likely be more
infrequent coming with unstable afternoon conditions. Wind gusts
of 30-35 mph expected around Wenatchee, Waterville, and Ephrata
closer to 00-03z. Winds will decrease overnight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions. Will need to watch for patchy blowing dust
in the western Columbia Basin as the peak of the winds come
through closer to 00z. This comes with low confidence and main
area that will need to be watched is between Ritzville and Moses
Lake.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane 81 49 77 51 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
Coeur d`Alene 81 49 78 51 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 20 50
Pullman 78 44 72 47 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 20 40
Lewiston 89 55 82 56 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 40
Colville 79 39 79 44 72 38 / 10 10 0 0 10 70
Sandpoint 79 47 77 48 70 45 / 0 10 0 0 20 70
Kellogg 78 52 74 55 67 48 / 0 0 0 0 30 60
Moses Lake 84 46 81 52 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
Wenatchee 81 52 81 57 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
Omak 83 46 81 51 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 80
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades
(Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-
Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin
(Zone 707).
ID...None.
&&
$$