354
FXUS66 KSEW 261556
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
856 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.UPDATE...No significant updates this morning to the public
forecast. Rain showers are still on track to move through the
region this evening/afternoon. Please refer to an updated aviation
section below.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over Western Washington through
Friday. A couple of weak systems will move through the area
later today and Friday. Upper level ridge building over the
weekend into Monday for drier and warmer weather. The ridge will
weaken slightly Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Satellite imagery shows
cloudy skies over Western Washington with a few breaks in the
overcast. Some light showers starting to appear on the western
edge of the radar range offshore. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in
the 50s.

Upper level trough remaining over Western Washington through
Friday. Weak shortwave, currently near 49N/127W, will move into
the area late this afternoon and evening with shower chances
increasing at that time. Highest pops will be near the Canadian
border. Precipitation amounts, if any, will be less than a tenth
of an inch. Last shortwave in the series arriving Friday. Most of
the energy with this feature moving by to the north. Chance to
slight chance pops for most of the area. Best chance for light
showers along the north coast and over the Northwest Interior.
Highs both days will be cool, in the lower to mid 60s. Lows with
plenty of cloud cover in the 50s.

Upper level ridge beginning to build Saturday. 500 mb heights go
from the low 570 dms late Friday afternoon to near 580 dms by late
Saturday afternoon. Light flow in the lower levels combined with
strong June sunshine will dissipate the morning cloud cover
leaving mostly sunny skies for the afternoon. With the added
sunshine and warmer temperatures aloft, highs climbing into the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Extended models in good
agreement the first couple of days with the upper level ridge
continuing to build over the area Sunday. The ridge axis will
drift east Sunday night into Monday. Light northwesterly onshore
flow in the lower levels will keep highs on the coast near 70.
Highs over the interior in the 70s to lower 80s Sunday and mid 70s
to mid 80s Monday.

Beginning Tuesday ensemble solutions become more widespread with
an increasing amount of outcomes due to a weak upper level trough
over California. A few solutions have convection over the Oregon
Cascades in the late afternoon and evening but the convection
never makes it as far north as Washington. General consensus is a
flat upper level ridge over the area Tuesday and Wednesday with
highs remaining above normal for the interior, in the 70s and
lower 80s. Highs along the coast in the mid to upper 60s with
afternoon seabreezes off the upper 50 degree ocean waters.

If you were in Western Washington four years ago you certainly
remember the next three days. The heat dome over the area resulted
in all time record highs on the 28th. In Seattle today was the
first of three 100 degree plus days in a row. Before this there
had only been 3 100 degree plus days on record at Seattle-Tacoma
airport in the 76 year weather history at the airport. The high on
June 26th, 2021 in Seattle was 102 degrees followed by 104 on the
27th and the all time record 108 degrees on the 28th. Highs
cooled on the 29th with Sea-Tac recording 85 degrees. Felton

&&

.AVIATION...A mixed bag of ceilings this morning ranging from VFR to
MVFR, with ceilings bouncing back and forth at some of the
terminals due to some breaks in the clouds. Most terminals should
improve to low-end VFR around 19z-21z. Terminals along the coast
and Strait will likely remain MVFR throughout the day. Rain and
showers during the afternoon- evening could lead to localized
lowering of cigs/vis. More widespread MVFR slated to return early
Friday morning.

KSEA...Currently low-end VFR conditions at the terminal this morning
with some of the low-level clouds scattering. However, looking at
the latest satellite imagery, it appears the low-level clouds moving
from the west may cause ceilings to bounce back and forth, and have
decided to keep MVFR in the prevailing line for now. VFR conditions
expected around 19z-21z. Showers are in the forecast this afternoon
and evening. SW winds 5-10 kt throughout much of the TAF period.
MVFR cigs set to return early Friday morning.

McMillian/29

&&

.MARINE...A weak front will cross the waters today with no impacts.
Westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca are favored each
evening throughout the next several days but should remain below SCA
criteria. High pressure slated to rebuild over the waters Friday and
persist into the weekend, establishing northwest flow over the
coastal waters. This high will begin to weaken early next week.

Seas will generally be around 3-4 ft throughout the week, increasing
slightly during the weekend to 4-6 ft and persisting into next week.

McMillian

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$