325
FXUS61 KAKQ 111054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
654 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches the region today, bringing
widespread rainfall and unsettled conditions into tonight.
Dreary conditions continue through much of Saturday with an
upper low remaining over the area. High pressure gradually
builds back into the area Sunday into early next week bringing
a warming trend. A series of cold fronts likely cross the region
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers develop later this morning, with locally heavy
rainfall possible.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast
Virginia and northeast North Carolina this afternoon into this
evening.

- The primary threats with any stronger storms will be the potential
for hail and strong wind gusts.

Early this morning, ~1030mb high pressure is centered well off the
New England coast. Meanwhile, ~1015mb low pressure is centered over
upstate SC with a warm front extending out ahead of it into southern
NC. Aloft, broad troughing continues to dig across the Eastern US.
Light showers continue over roughly the eastern half of the area
this morning due to weak warm advection. Elsewhere, cannot rule out
a scattered light rain shower and/or drizzle as we continue through
the early morning hours. In addition, patchy fog has developed just
to the west of our forecast area, which may try to nudge into our
western counties prior to sunrise. Temperatures range from the mid
to upper 40s across the north and west, with mid to upper 50s
further SE.

Low pressure gradually lifts northeast from western SC this early
morning, into eastern NC later this morning, and eventually into
southeastern portions of the area this afternoon/evening. Rain
chances rapidly increase around or shortly after sunrise from south
to north ahead of the approaching low and lifting warm front.
Widespread rain showers are then expected through much of the day
today, with PoPs climbing into the 90-95% chance range for many.
Rain will be moderate to heavy at times, with widespread 1-2"
rainfall totals (locally higher) today through tonight. This
rainfall will generally be beneficial, but some localized instances
of flooding will be possible (especially in urban or poor drainage
areas), thus WPC has placed the entire area in a Day 1 Marginal ERO.

Will also be keeping a close eye on a Marginal (1 out of 5) severe
weather threat across our far southern and southeastern areas this
afternoon into this evening. Mid-level lapse rates become locally
steep later today as an upper low moves in (mid-level lapse rates
around 7C possible). Low level moisture will also be on the increase
for our southern areas later today, with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 50s, allowing for at least some modest CAPE to develop.
Finally, 0-6km shear will be increasing to around 50 knots
(potentially higher). Severe hail and/or wind will be possible with
any stronger storms. Additionally, cannot completely rule out a few
rotating storms with a 2% tornado chance clipping areas along the
Albemarle Sound. However, with dew points less than 60F, the
tornado threat is very limited. The main limiting factors are
widespread convection and low dewpoints/CAPE. Given the lapse rates
and favorable time of year for hail, would not be surprised to get
at least small hail out of several storms if we can get enough
instability. Overall, today`s severe weather threat is more of a
conditional threat locally, with the best parameters likely located
further south.

Temperatures today will range from the low to mid 50s across the NW,
to the mid to upper 60s across the SE. Rain chances gradually
diminish from south to north tonight as the low lifts along far
eastern portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures and cloudy skies continue on Saturday.

- Temperatures gradually rebound Sunday.

Surface low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday
into early Sunday, with an upper low also becoming centered over
the area during that timeframe. This will lead to a mostly
cloudy to overcast day on Saturday, with lingering light rain
chances (best chances east) or drizzle over the region.
Temperatures will remain chilly, with highs only in the 50s.
Some locations across the northern MD Eastern Shore will likely
only climb into the mid to upper 40s. A mainly dry day is
expected for Sunday with rebounding temperatures as the low
pulls further east. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the low
to mid 60s (Upper 50s Eastern Shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A warmup is expected early next week with dry weather returning.

A warmup is expected Monday and Tuesday as a ridge briefly builds
over the area before sliding offshore. Temps warm into the mid-upper
70s Monday and upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday. A series of cold fronts
push through Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday with cooler
temps arriving by midweek. Breezy W winds are expected Tuesday
afternoon with winds gusting to 20-30 mph. Temps cool by mid week
with highs in the upper 50s NE to mid-upper 60s S Wednesday and 60s
Thursday. Lows back into the upper 30s (locally mid 30s) are
possible Wednesday night, however, confidence is low at this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Friday...

MVFR to IFR CIGs across northern and western portions of the
area this morning (RIC and SBY), with VFR CIGs remaining across
the SE. CIGs will continue to lower from NW to SE through this
morning, with IFR eventually reaching all sites (minus ECG) by
late morning or early afternoon. May see a brief improvement in
CIGs at ECG and potentially ORF later this afternoon as low
pressure continues to move north. All sites are then expected to
see IFR CIGs later this evening through at least Saturday
morning.

Rain chances rapidly increase this morning from south to north,
continuing through much of the day with multiple rounds of
moderate to potentially locally heavy showers expected
(potentially reducing VSBYs to MVFR or even IFR at times).
Shower chances gradually diminish from south to north later this
evening into tonight. Some thunder is also possible this
afternoon/evening, with the highest confidence at ECG at this
time where a PROB30 mention was introduced.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely to continue into at
least Saturday as an upper level low lingers across the area
through this weekend, allowing for unsettled weather and
occasional showers to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...

- SCAs are in effect north of Parramore Island due to building
  seas this morning, N of Cape Charles this afternoon.

- SCAs are possible Saturday through early Sunday morning
  behind a cold front.

High pressure is still located off the New England coast early this
morning and an area of low pressure is developing to the SW of the
local area. Later today, the low will deepen and slide NE across the
FA, tightening the pressure gradient and thus increasing winds ahead
of it. Latest obs indicate onshore winds are at 5-10kt. Despite the
lighter winds, the continued onshore flow has led to seas in the
northern coastal zones building to around 5ft, so went ahead
and started the SCAs for these zones. Winds will remain onshore
and gradually increase through this morning and afternoon.
Highest winds today look to be ~20kt off he MD Eastern Shore
and ~15kt elsewhere. Seas of 5ft will spread S as winds pick up
this afternoon, so went ahead and added another zone to the SCA
(ANZ654) starting at 1pm.

Low pressure pushes off the coast tonight into Saturday. The wind
gradually becomes northerly tonight, and then increases to 15-20kt.
Saturday into Saturday night (strongest Ches. Bay and ocean). SCAs
will eventually be needed for the Ches. Bay and the remainder
of the ocean zones (primarily for seas), which should remain
elevated into Sunday. High pressure builds in from the W Sunday
and passes across the region Monday. Another cold front
potentially moves across the coast by Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ/AC