526 FXUS61 KAKQ 090720 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 320 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier conditions return today. A cold front moves across the area on Tuesday, bringing scattered showers and storms. Dry and warm weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with unsettled weather returning Friday into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Showers and storms move offshore early this morning. - Mostly dry and warm today with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Weak low pressure is noted over the northern Chesapeake Bay ahead of a mid level short wave trough. Showers and storms have finally begun to weaken across the southeastern third of the area. CAM guidance shows these cells rapidly weakening through the rest of the night with just some lingering patchy fog and low stratus expected prior to sunrise (especially along the MD Eastern Shore). A welcome break from the showers and storms is expected today as heights aloft remain neutral or even rise a bit in the wake of the short wave trough. SPC has removed the marginal severe risk from our area but a few very widely scattered showers/storms are possible by mid to late afternoon. Have capped PoPs at 30% or less with most of the area staying dry this afternoon. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected this afternoon with clouds increasing from the SW this evening. High temps today with range from the low 80s along the MD Eastern Shore to the upper 80s and low 90s for the remainder of the region. PoPs increase to 30-40% late tonight as the next trough and surface cold front approach from the NW. Muggy overnight with low temps around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather returns on Tuesday with increased chances for showers and storms. - A cold front finally drops south of the area with drier conditions expected Wednesday. The aforementioned upper trough axis will move through the region on Tuesday, bringing the chance for showers and storms back to the area. Overnight showers and few storms will continue Tuesday morning with widespread cloud cover lending some uncertainty to degree of destabilization Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it appears the greatest chance for appreciable insolation will be across the eastern half of the area. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the entire area Tuesday. Strong to locally severe wind gusts are the main threat, especially in areas that see some breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures will also depend heavily on how much cloud cover is present across the area. High temps generally in the low to mid 80s are forecast across the region. Some lingering showers and storms are possible across far SE VA into NE NC after sunset but these should dissipate/move offshore by midnight or so. Some drier air begins to filter into the area behind the weak surface front. Low temps range from around 60 degrees NW to the upper 60s or low 70s SE. High pressure builds into the area on Wednesday, keeping the area mostly dry. A few showers are possible for NE NC but confidence is low so will limit PoPs to 30% or less. Pleasant Wednesday afternoon for most of the area with dew points falling into the upper 50s to low 60s and temps generally in the mid 80s. Overnight lows in the 60s with mostly clear skies expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Very warm but remaining dry Thursday. - Warm with low shower and storm chances returning Friday afternoon with greater coverage expected Saturday and Sunday. Heights aloft build on Thursday, leading to a dry forecast with high temps climbing into the low 90s for most of the area. Overnight low temps generally in the mid to upper 60s. Heights begin to decrease on Friday ahead of the next trough and surface reflection. PoPs looks to remain in the chance category through early Saturday. Flow aloft become WNW by Saturday afternoon with more widespread showers and storms expected. Enhanced flow aloft may allow for more storm organization by Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon temps will be held in check somewhat by the expected increased cloud cover. Highs generally in the mid 80s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Monday... Showers and storms continue for the SE terminals (ORF and PHF) early this morning. Brief IFR conditions accompany the stronger convection. More widespread IFR is noted over the northern third of the area, including SBY. Expect SBY to stay IFR through mid morning or so. Less confident that RIC will drop into IFR territory so will maintain low end MVFR in the forecast for now. Outside of convection, the SE terminals should see a mix MVFR and VFR. Went MVFR at PHF based on many years experience with that troublesome ob. Conditions improve by mid morning with SCT CU likely through the afternoon. A few showers and storms are possible by late afternoon or early evening but confidence in coverage and placement is well below a mention in the forecast at this time range. Winds will generally be light and variable as the composite frontal boundary waffles around the area. Outlook: Additional scattered showers and storms move through on Tue with flight restrictions possible. && .MARINE... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through the week. A frontal boundary lingers over the waters early this morning with easterly winds of 5-10 kt north and SW winds of 5-15 kt over the central/srn waters. Seas are 2-3 ft and convection has largely dissipated. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM for the MD coastal waters, as KOXB has been reporting 1/2-1SM VSBYs for the past few hrs. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through the week. Variable winds aob 10 kt are forecast today but winds will become SSW and increase to ~15 kt this evening/tonight as a weak area of low pressure approaches from the west. Will likely see gusts to 20 kt, but not expecting these to be frequent enough to warrant SCAs. Local wind probabilities for sustained 18 kt winds are 10-20% on the bay tonight. SW winds around 15 kt continue on Tuesday, but the highest winds will be over the rivers and near the land-water interface due to daytime mixing over adjacent land areas. Again, a few 20 kt gusts are likely during the day. Tstm chances return tonight and especially Tuesday as the frontal boundary likely pushes south of the waters. A few SMWs will likely be needed Tuesday aftn/evening. High pressure returns by midweek with winds aob 10 kt expected. Seas remain 2-3 ft today, but build to 3-4 ft late tonight- Tue. Waves are expected to be 1-3 ft through the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...AJB/ERI