215
FXUS61 KAKQ 150023
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
723 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers continue throughout tonight bringing beneficial
rainfall across the region. Gusty winds along the coast Friday,
due to another low forming off the coast. Dry weather and
moderating temperatures return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 720 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Rain showers continue through tonight into Friday morning.

- 1-2" of rain is expected along and south of I-64.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect from Norfolk south through
  Currituck given gusty winds expected tonight into Friday.

Evening surface analysis shows a negatively tilted upper level
trough centered over the Ohio River Valley. At the surface,
high pressure in northeastern Canada was allowing for CAD across
the area. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure was noted
along the NC/SC coastline. Widespread light to moderate rain
has moved into the area and will continue to increase in
coverage and intensity (particularly S of I-64) overnight as a
band of FGEN develops over the area while the coastal low
deepens. Models continue to show QPF ranges between 1-2" along
this corridor with locally higher amounts. These higher amounts
depend on heavier bands of rain developing with the FGEN.
However, no major flooding is currently expected as the rainfall
totals will be spread out over many hours. Rain tapers off from
NW to SE late tonight into Fri morning as the low moves
offshore.

Winds along the coast are expected to increase overnight due to
the strengthening of low pressure along the Carolina coastline
and the tight pressure gradient on it`s NW quadrant (due to
strong high pressure to the W). As such, winds may increase to
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph along the coast from Norfolk S
through coastal Currituck County. Therefore, a Wind Advisory
has been issued for these areas. Will note, models have
slightly trended down on the higher winds but remain at near or
at Wind Advisory criteria. Temps as of 715 PM ranged from the
mid 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Temps tonight are not expected to
cool much given cloudy skies and rain with lows in the mid to
upper 40s for the majority of the area and low-mid 50s towards
the coast.

Rain tapers off from NW to SE Fri morning as the low moves
offshore. However, the upper level trough continues to provide
forcing aloft through the day. As such, expect widespread cloud
cover to linger through most of the day before beginning to
clear during the late afternoon/evening. Highs Fri in the mid
to upper 50s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

-Dry weather and seasonable temperatures returns this weekend.

High pressure will move back into the region and move the low
pressure system out of the region. This will allow skies to clear
and bring back dry weather across the area. Friday night, lows will
reach the lower 40s across the region, with the coastline in the
upper 40s. Saturday will warm up to the lower 60s and cool down to
the upper 30s. Then Sunday highs are back into the lower to middle
60s and lows in the middle lower to middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry/seasonable weather is expected next Monday and Tuesday.

- Another chance of rain is possible with a cold front Wednesday into
  Thursday.

Latest 12Z/14 ensemble guidance shows decent agreement with they
synoptic pattern to start off next week. An upper level ridge will
build in across the entire Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to high
pressure setting in at the surface and will cause benign weather
conditions. Partly cloudy and warm Monday with high temperatures in
the mid 60s to around 70F. Weak high pressure settles over the
region Monday night and slides offshore Tuesday. Warm temperatures
continue Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid 60s N to around 70F
S, after morning lows in the 40s. By Wednesday and Thursday ensemble
guidance is in a wide disagreement. There is the potential of a
trough digging in across the area. The disagreement between the
ensembles is the strength of the potential system. The GEFS has a
much stronger system and has it further east than the ECMWF. This
disagreement causes moderate uncertainty in the forecast. Right now
NBM Pops remain in the forecast and stay between 15-20% Wednesday
into Thursday. Trends will continue to be monitored as the day
approaches. Highs for Wednesday will be in the middle to upper 60s
and lows in the middle to upper 40s, Thursday highs are similar with
highs in the middle 60s and lows in the lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 705 PM EST Thursday...

Widespread light to moderate rain has moved into the region as a
weak area of low pressure begins to form across the coastal
Carolinas this evening. This low is expected to strengthen
overnight into Fri morning before moving offshore Fri. CIGs were
mainly VFR E of I-95 and IFR/LIFR W this evening. Expect CIGs to
continue to lower from W to E overnight with IFR/LIFR CIGs expected
at RIC and possibly to PHF and MVFR CIGs elsewhere. While VIS
has been generally MVFR/VFR this afternoon, expect VIS to
decrease to MVFR (occasionally IFR) overnight as a band of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall develops generally S of I-64.
Rain tapers off from NW to SE late tonight into Fri morning as
the low moves offshore with CIGs improving to MVFR at RIC by
~16z (11 AM). Enough upper level forcing exists behind the low
for either CU or stratus to linger through the afternoon with
mainly MVFR CIGs (1000-2500ft CIGs). Clouds dissipate Fri
evening apart from MVFR stratus over the bay/sea. Winds were
generally E/ENE 5-10 kt this evening. Winds become NE and then N
overnight as the low strengthens and moves offshore. Gusty winds
look to remain confined to SE VA/NE NC where winds may increase
to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt (locally higher along the
immediate coastline). Winds remain breezy through Fri afternoon
before becoming NW 5 kt inland and 5-10 kt along the coast Fri
night.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected this weekend as high
pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A strengthening low pressure system affects the area tonight
  into Friday afternoon.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for the Lower Bay, southern
  coastal waters, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound from
  late tonight through Friday for northeast winds of 25-30 kt
  with gusts to around 40 kt.

- Elevated winds are expected to continue across the marine area through
  much of the weekend.

High pressure remains over eastern Canada this afternoon with low
pressure just south of the Great Lakes. Winds are E-NE at ~15 kt
with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Seas are 4-6 ft, with 2-3 ft waves.
Secondary low pressure develops over eastern NC this evening-early
tonight and is progged to quickly deepen to ~995mb as it pushes
offshore Friday morning. The E-NE winds increase to 20-25 kt on the
bay/ocean (w/ gusts to 30 kt) by late this evening before becoming
NE then N on Fri, as the low pulls offshore. While the latest 12z/14
guidance is a bit farther south with the track of the low (and
overall slightly lower with respect to winds), still expecting wind
speeds to increase to 25-30 kt with 40 kt gusts across the lower
bay, lower James River, and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters by 4-7 AM
Fri, and remain in that range through late Fri morning-early Fri
aftn. Farther north, solid SCA conditions (25-35 kt gusts) are
expected. So, will not make any changes to marine wind headlines and
will keep the Gale Warnings for the Lower Bay, Coastal waters S of
Parramore Island, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound from 1 AM
Fri through early-late Fri aftn. Elsewhere, SCAs are in effect
(including the upper rivers). Confidence in the forecast is higher
than it was yesterday, although winds could still be a few knots
higher (or lower) than expected. Local wind probs show a 60-80% chc
of 34+ kt gusts over the lower bay/srn coastal waters, with probs
generally less than 10% for 43+ kt gusts.

The pressure gradient relaxes a bit by late Fri, as winds become NNW
behind the low, but winds speeds of 20-25 kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) are
expected from Fri evening-Sat before slowly diminishing below SCA
levels by Sun, as high pressure builds toward and eventually over
the area. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on Mon/Tue.

Seas build to 7-11 ft (highest south) by Fri. High Surf Advisories
have been issued south of Cape Henry from late tonight-early Fri
evening. Waves build to 3-6 ft (highest at the mouth of the bay)
late tonight into Fri as well. Seas slowly subside this weekend and
should fall to ~4 ft by late Sun.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Moderate tidal flooding is forecast across much of the area on Friday,
  with locally major tidal flooding possible from Kiptopeke
  south to VA Beach and Duck. Coastal Flood Watches have been
  upgraded to Warnings for all areas south of
  Tappahannock/Windmill Pt/Wachapreague for Friday morning`s
  high tide.

- Advisories are in effect farther north where high-end minor
  tidal flooding is expected.

Astronomical tides increase late this week with the approach of the
next full moon. Meanwhile, tidal anomalies have begun to increase
today, and widespread nuisance to minor tidal flooding has been
observed across a decent portion of the area.

By the higher astronomical high tide early morning to midday Friday,
the degree of tidal flooding is dependent on the strength, timing,
and duration of NE flow associated with the deepening low offshore.
While the 12z/14 guidance is slightly weaker with respect to wind
speeds, am still expecting widespread moderate tidal flooding in
areas along and south of Tappahannock/Windmill Pt/Wachapreague, with
locally major tidal flooding possible from Kiptopeke south to VA
Beach and the nrn Outer Banks. Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect
from Tappahannock to Wachapreague southward for Friday`s high
tide...with advisories farther north where high-end minor flooding
is expected. Astronomical tides (and tidal anomalies) are expected
to gradually decrease this weekend...but additional minor tidal
flooding is still possible in many spots through Saturday.

Of note, astronomical high tides alone Friday morning
are within ~1ft of minor flood thresholds. Therefore, 1.5-2.0ft of
surge easily puts many sites well into minor flood stage and into
moderate for eastern portions of the lower Ches. Bay and ocean S of
Oyster, and 2.0-2.5ft of surge corresponding to Friday morning`s
high tide would result in major flooding.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for NCZ017-102.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for VAZ099.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for VAZ095-098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for VAZ098.
     High Surf Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for VAZ076-078-
     085-089-090-093-521-522-524.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for VAZ076-
     078-085-089-090-093-521-522-524.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for VAZ083-084-
     086-095>097-100-518-520-523-525.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for VAZ083-
     084-086-518-520-523.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for
     VAZ095>097-100-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630-631-
     635>637-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ632>634-638-
     654-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ632-634-638-
     654.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ633-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...HET/RMM
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...