712
FXUS61 KAKQ 090154
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
954 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place over the region for the remainder
of the week. Hurricane Milton passes well south and southeast
of the region from Wednesday through Friday. A stronger cold
front crosses the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Clear and cool tonight with lows in the 40s.

- A bit warmer on Wednesday with highs mainly in the mid 70s.

The cold front pushed well to our south this afternoon with
broad troughing aloft still in place over the Mid-
Atlantic/Northeast. With mostly clear skies overhead and little
to no wind, temps are dropping pretty quickly now that the sun
has set. Latest obs show temps already in the mid 50s in most
(inland) areas. Clear and cool with lows in the lower- mid 40s
inland with upper 40s-lower 50s closer to the bay/coast. Cannot
rule out a few spots hitting the upper 30s by morning in
Louisa/Farmville area, especially given how cool it has already
gotten.

Surface high pressure remains over the region on Wednesday.
Mostly sunny to start on Wed but SCT-BKN high cirrus associated
with Hurricane Milton should overspread the FA from south to
north during the day. Pleasant Wednesday with seasonal high
temperatures in the mid 70s and a light W wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- A pleasant fall airmass expected through the end of the work
  week with cool nights, mild days, and low humidity.

Surface high pressure remains over the region thru Wednesday night.
Temps will be cool with lows in the mid to upper 40s (towards the
coast will be milder around 50 degrees). Clouds from Hurricane
Milton will begin to move into the CWA from the SE, keeping
overnight temps slightly warmer than Tues night. A dry cold front
will pass through early Thurs morning bringing cooler daytime highs
in the mid 60s and overnight lows in the low 40s, with milder temps
near the coastline. Friday`s temps will be similar to Thurs, only
higher by a degree or two with mostly sunny skies.

As the surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic, Hurricane
Milton is expected to make landfall in FL on Thurs. The high
pressure will suppress Milton`s ability of traveling northward and
will keep any impacts well south of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend with dry conditions
  continuing.

- A strong cold front potentially moves through the area early next
  week.

Surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic shifts towards the SE as
a strong Canadian high pressure begins troughing over the Great
Lakes. Fri night will be a few degrees warmer than Thurs with temps
in the mid 40s. Sat and Sun will warm back up to highs in the upper
70s with lows in the mid to high 50s. Mostly sunny skies are
expected both days. As the potent Canadian upper trough digs to the
Mid-Atlantic, a strong cold front will likely push through the area
Mon, which will bring a cooler air mass. Clouds will build in Mon
and Tues causing skies to be partly sunny. High temps Mon and Tues
will be around the mid 60s, but dependent on the timing of the
front. This could allow the SE to remain slightly warmer with temps
in the lower 70s on Mon. Lows after the cold front will return to
the mid 40s (warmer near the coastline), with Tues overnight low
being the coolest.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions expected through the 00z TAF period. Skies will
be clear overnight and through most of tomorrow. ECG could see a
SCT clouds by the end of the period, though, as clouds move in
from the S. Winds will be calm to light and variable overnight.
W/NW winds will be generally light tomorrow as well with the
exception of afternoon gusts at SBY.

VFR conditions continue Wednesday night through Saturday as
high pressure prevails.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 955 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds in from the northwest into Wednesday.

- Hurricane Milton is forecast to track northeast into Florida
  by Wednesday night, and then move east of the Florida
  Atlantic coast Thursday and Friday.

High pressure will continue to nudge east and make it over the
area by Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain relatively
light (5-10 kts) out of the north tonight and Wednesday across
all waters. Waves are not expected to change much overnight/Wed
with seas of 3-4 ft and waves 1-2 ft in the Bay. Starting late
Wednesday, the pressure gradient will tighten up once again.
With this occuring and a dry cold front approaching the region,
SCAs are likely for all waters. Winds across all waters have
been increased to account for the decent northerly surge. As the
forecast stands, winds are expected to be sustained between
15-20 kt with gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Seas/waves are also expected
to build with these conditions. Right now, waves are expected
to be between 2-3 ft across the Bay, 3-5 at the mouth of the
Bay, and seas 4-6 ft on the ocean. Going into the weekend, SCA
conditions will taper off. By early next week, long range model
guidance hints at another strong cold front that could bring SCA
conditions once again to our waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AM/ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...HET/JDM