972 FXUS61 KAKQ 020527 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 127 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front moves across the area overnight, allowing for isolated to scattered showers to develop. High pressure builds into the area this week, allowing for dry weather to return through mid- week. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. An unsettled pattern returns by late week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 120 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - A few showers and an isolated storm are possible overnight across SE VA and NE NC. - Cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s/50s. Temps as of 110 AM were in the 50s across most of the area with 60s along the coast. A few showers have started to develop across E VA and NE NC. A weak cold front pushes SE overnight, allowing for just enough forcing for isolated showers to remain possible across E VA/ NE NC over the next few hours. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out as well. Partly cloudy skies become mostly clear from W to E through the night across most of the area. However, partly cloudy skies may linger along the coast until just after sunrise. Skies clear out Mon morning as an upper level disturbance and cold front/surface low move offshore. Morning lows drop into the upper 40s-lower 50s W of I-95 and lower- mid 50s E (with a few lower 60s at the immediate coast). Similar to last night, should there be enough decoupling, these temps could end up being a few degrees too warm. Either way, a chilly morning for early June. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Seasonably cool, sunny, and dry Monday. - Much warmer temperatures arrive by midweek. The trough axis shifts eastward Monday, allowing the sfc high to settle overhead. While one additional shortwave may dive southward in the late morning/early afternoon, generally near the coast, insufficient moisture throughout the column should prevent anything other than some widely scattered cumulus clouds. Monday`s highs remain below normal for one more day with temps topping out in the mid 70s for most of the area. Radiational cooling leads to one more cool night with lows in the 50s, though there is again some potential for 40s inland per the statistical guidance. The trough evolves into a cut-off low Tuesday as it moves well offshore, while ridging expands along the East Coast. With building heights and low-level thicknesses, a significant warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through most of the upcoming work week. Highs Tuesday in the lower-mid 80s, with mid-upper 80s by Wednesday. Moderating lows Tuesday night in the upper 50s-lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Generally dry and warm/hot weather is expected for the end of the week. - Afternoon shower and storm chances return by later Friday into the weekend, though with temperatures remaining in the 80s. A ridge should linger across the area through most of the week, favoring mainly dry wx and warm to hot temperatures. Forecast highs Thursday and Friday are in the mid-upper 80s (and perhaps to 90 in a few spots). This is ~1-2 degrees cooler than the previous forecast. This can probably be traced to the global model guidance recently trending toward showing a weak upper low developing underneath the ridge over the Southeast states Thursday. There could also be a weak sfc low or trough that sets up along the Carolina coast. This scenario would allow for some cloud cover to stream northward toward us, especially across the srn half of the forecast area. Slight chance PoPs have also been introduced later Thursday into Thursday night. By Friday, that disturbance may lift N along the coast as broader shortwave trough approaches from the W. Thus, would expect at least isolated-scattered showers/storms Friday afternoon. Ensemble and deterministic guidance then shows a cold front crossing the area Saturday, with additional showers and storms possible (40-50% chance). The 01/12z GFS stalls the front near the NC/VA border Sunday, leading to additional wet wx. On the other hand, the 12z ECMWF clears to front well to our S, with dry wx by next Sunday. All in all, these are typical uncertainties at this time range so will continue to advertise a chance of showers and storms into Sunday (which is consistent with the NBM/blended guidance). Warm temperatures in the 80s prevail through the weekend. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. SCT to occasionally BKN low level clouds continue across mainly SE VA/NE NC overnight. There is also a chance for showers and perhaps an isolated storm at PHF/ORF/ECG before 8z. However, given low confidence in coverage (and very low confidence in thunder), this potential will be handled with PROB30 groups for SHRA. Skies clear this morning, though some smoke aloft likely persists. Light and variable winds overnight become N 5-10 kt this morning, eventually becoming light and variable/calm this evening. Will note that brief N surge is possible early this morning along the coast with winds potentially increasing to 10 kt with gusts up to 15-20 kt at mainly ORF for a couple hours around 12z. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected through Thursday with VFR conditions prevailing. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... - Weak low pressure and another cold front cross the coast tonight. - Benign marine conditions prevail later Monday through much of the week with high pressure over the region. Broad high pressure W of the region is leading to rather light winds of 5-10 kt this afternoon. The wind direction is generally S-SSE, except from the SW on the rivers. Seas are around 2 ft this afternoon with waves in the bay around 1 ft. Weak low pressure approaches from the WSW by this evening. The wind is expected to become SSE 10-15kt over the Chesapeake Bay and ocean over the next few hours and into this evening ahead of this feature. This area of low pressure moves off the coast later tonight, with another cold front dropping N-S along the Mid- Atlantic coast. A northerly surge follows this cold front. The wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt. However, a short period of 15-20kt is possible over the bay Monday morning given another push of drier air from the N over relatively warmer water. This would also result in a period of 2-3ft waves in the Bay Monday morning. Wind probabilities for SCAs (>18 kt sustained) are generally 20-40%; thus, confidence is too low to raise headlines at this time. However, a short-fused SCA could eventually be needed depending on observational and model trends. The time frame for this would be roughly 09z-15z/5 AM-11 AM. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the region later Monday, before settling offshore through the middle and end of the week. This will result in a S to SW wind beginning Tuesday, which will primarily be at or below 15kt. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM/SW NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM/SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AJZ/SW