816 FXUS61 KRNK 051804 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 204 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep conditions dry through Sunday morning. Tropical Storm Chantal will move onshore in South Carolina by Sunday pushing showers and a few storms toward the Blue Ridge and Piedmont. This system weakens early next week but combined with increasing moisture and a front to the north will keep shower and thunderstorm chances around. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Dry and fair weather through tomorrow morning. 2) Increasing clouds and possibly showers/isolated storms from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Chantal. Tranquil weather still remains in place through Sunday morning for the region with near seasonal temperatures and low dew points. A few fair weather cumulus this afternoon will diminish this evening giving way to mostly clear skies. Recently named Tropical Storm Chantal will begin to increase in forward speed tonight and make landfall along the South Carolina coast midday Sunday as a modest tropical storm. As Chantal moves closer to the coast tonight and Sunday morning...will begin to see increasing cirrus and eventually some areas of rain. The majority of the area will remain dry through Sunday morning, but as Chantal moves further inland into the Carolinas, a few outer rain bands and isolated embedded storms could begin to impact areas east of the Blue Ridge by mid/late afternoon Sunday. Overall, impacts from Chantal look to remain to a minimum with the heaviest rain/storm potential staying east of the area. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Tropical Storm Chantal to potentially graze south central VA and north central NC. 2) Frontal system to arrive mid-next week and provide another chance of thunderstorms. Tropical Storm Chantal has formed off the southeastern coast and will likely be in a weakened sub-tropical storm state by the time in travels northeast into North Carolina and Virginia. Current projected paths of TS Chantal has its center traveling well east of the area, but still close enough to influence the winds of the region and provide precipitation to the most southeastern counties. Wind gusts will not be impressive with gusts up to 15 mph but they will turn noticeably counterclockwise as Chantal travels northeast. Rain accumulations will be dependent on the exact track of the storm, but maximum accumulations may be up to 0.25" for Southside VA and the Piedmont region of NC. The storm will dissipate as it heads away from the Mid-Atlantic. A long frontal system connected by surface low pressure systems will make its way to the area. The frontal system is expected to stall and be within the vicinity of the region by mid-next week. Meanwhile, two upper level ridges will form (one over the southwestern CONUS and another over the Deep South), create westerly/southwesterly winds, and divert shortwaves towards the area. As a result, another pattern of daily thunderstorms and showers is set to begin again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: 1) Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms next week. A cold front is expected to continue to stall in the Mid-Atlantic region and become stationary for most of next week. Subtle changes in its location is forecast, but it is not expected to move away to the north until at least next weekend. A 500mb ridge over the Deep South is expected to deteriorate and lose strength compared to its stronger counterpart over the southwestern CONUS. As a result, a semi-stationary positively tilted trough will be over the Mississippi River and assist in directing shortwaves into our region. Given this synoptic setup up as well as dew points in the mid-60s to mid-70s, daily thunderstorm and shower activity can be expected for the latter half of next week. Model guidance suggests weaker shear during this time period which may place a cap on severe weather potential, but it is still too early to confidently say when or what type of severe weather could occur. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... Overall expecting VFR and light winds through the current 24 hour TAF period. Some pockets of fog possible around daybreak Sunday morning, with highest confidence at LWB. Increasing clouds Sunday morning as Tropical Storm Chantal moves closer to the South Carolina, but any potential impacts do not look to impact the area until late Sunday. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Moisture from TD Three is expected to remain mostly south and east of the forecast area, but may tease KDAN late Sunday into Monday. Periods of heavy rain are expected along the coast, mainly east of I-95. Storm chances increase midweek with a front to our north. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...BMG