483 FXUS61 KRNK 250547 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 147 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity builds into the weekend lasting through next Wednesday along with an increasing chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 AM EDT Friday... Key Message: 1) Hot weather returns today. Overall, expecting dry conditions through early Friday before winds turn west-southwesterly drawing heat and humidity from the Mississippi Valley up and over the mountains. Temperatures should respond quickly once mixing begins on Friday with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s for the foothills and piedmont, and well into the 80s for the mountains. Dewpoints will also trend up, suggesting heat indices in the piedmont should eclipse 100 for mid-late afternoon. We issue heat advisories when the heat index reaches 105, something that will likely be entertained for the weekend. Any storm activity Friday is expected to be isolated. Enough CAPE may become available for the NC High Country and for areas north of I-64 in WV/VA. Aside from that, no significant hazards expected from thunderstorms Friday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Hot. 2) Chance of precipitation this weekend. An upper level ridge will continue to move westward across the Deep South through the weekend. The ridge will be large and strong enough to continue a heat wave over the Mid-Atlantic as well as most of eastern CONUS. Dew points are expected to be in upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the region while high temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s. With these temperatures, heat index is forecast to be between 90-105 degrees with the hottest temperatures areas east of the Blue Ridge. Heat Advisories may be considered depending on how intense this heat trend becomes. 500mb winds will become more northwesterly as a result of the ridge`s movement and will provide transport of perturbations for storm initiation this weekend. The signal for widespread thunderstorms and showers is stronger for Sunday than Saturday as model guidance depicts a stronger shortwave and vorticity passage. Shear, as usual, will be limited and will struggle to get above 20 knots. Even so, isolated strong wind gusts may be possible and with PWATs between 1.5-2.0 inches, heavy rainfall will likely accompany these storms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Hot trend continues. 2) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances. An upper level ridge will continue to move westward, but hot and moist conditions will persist for the first half of next week. High temperatures will be from the mid-80s to mid-90s and dew points will be in the 60s and 70s regionwide. As a result, heat index values are likely to remain mostly in the 90s but with values reaching up to 105 for areas east of the Blue Ridge. The northwest flow aloft will permit additional shortwaves through the area and, combined with the moist and hot conditions, provide daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. This weather pattern will continue until late next week when a cold front from a large upper level low over Canada looks to pass through. While this will be monitored in the coming days, this front may be the first best chance for some decent reprieve from the hot and moist conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 AM EDT Friday... VFR conditions are expected for the last majority of the region through the conclusion of the valid TAF forecast period of 06Z Sat/1AM EDT Saturday. The exception will be some brief river valley fog between 09-12z, mainly at LWB perhaps BCB/DAN. Winds will generally be light and variable or calm through the night. While no notable ceilings are expected, we expect another day of diurnal cumulus development with bases near the LCL height -- generally around 040-060 with the higher end of this range across the Piedmont. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible over the mountains of northwest NC. Winds will increase slightly through the day from sw- nw and be generally less than 7kts. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high. OUTLOOK... Anticipating mainly VFR through early next week outside any late night/early morning fog and scattered thunderstorms. Flight hazards from thunderstorms will primarily be limited to the peak heating part of the day and early evening 18Z-01Z time. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...DS/WP