978 FXUS61 KRNK 080030 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 830 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly progress east across the area through tonight. A much colder airmass arrives Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives Thursday into Friday. && .UPDATED NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 830 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1) Cold and windy overnight into tomorrow morning 2) Rain persists for northern North Carolina Counties and Southside Virginia 3) A chance of upslope precipitation for western mountainous counties Showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Blue Ridge persist as a frontal boundary slowly migrates southward. Flood Advisories due to continuous rainfall have been issued for more flood prone areas. Rainfall rates are not expected to be large enough to warrant any flash floods but the rain will be a nuisance for overnight commuters and could potentially flood vulnerable creeks and streams. Up to another three-quarters of an inch of rain is possible overnight for the central south counties of Virginia and the central north counties of North Carolina. Precipitation will likely be out of the entire area by Tuesday morning and clear skies will dominate after the cold and dry air mass moves in. This air mass will succeed a second cold front that will also bring a chance of upslope snow in the more western mountainous counties and gusty winds to the entire region. Total accumulation of snow is expected to be no more than a trace. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are possible region-wide Tuesday with wind gusts up to 40 mph for the highest elevations along the Blue Ridge. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) Rain moves out and colder air returns 2) A few mountain snow showers/flurries tonight and brisk Tuesday but dry Weather analysis has a low pressure along the front across southern VA this afternoon with rain start to slide east of our area. Still could see some showers into late afternoon with the upper trough arriving along with vicinity of frontal boundary but for most part most folks will be dry. Colder air has made it as far east as the WV mountains where temps are in the 40s. As we head through this evening, front pushes to the coast while another front races southeast toward us overnight. This will bring temperatures at least in the mountains back toward early March normals, but close to normal in the Piedmont, with mid 20s to around 30 west, to lower 40s Piedmont. The rain in the mountains will mix with and change to snow showers this evening, but will be limited thanks to drying airmass and warmer ground temps. Could see a dusting of snow across the higher ridges north of Bluefield, and west of Lewisburg, WV. Airmass dries big time Tuesday as dewpoints sink into the teens. A northwest wind gusting to 20-30 mph will help bring the dry air in as well, while skies will be mostly sunny. Will be a balancing act between the cold advection and the early April sunshine. Leaning toward a blend of the models favors highs in the 40s in the mountains to 50s east, which is about 10 to 20 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT MONDAY... Key Messages: 1) Quiet with below normal temperatures Wednesday. 2) Showers return Thursday. After a larger cold front and a smaller reinforcing frontal passage Monday night, temperatures will be quite chilly for mid-April. A region of high pressure will suppress any rain formation through Wednesday. Clear and dry atmospheric conditions with calm winds on Tuesday night will compound the already cold air mass with radiative cooling and drop temperatures below freezing for the entire forecast area. By Thursday we will be seeing the approach of a shortwave embedded in a much larger trough. We will begin with some upslope showers early Thursday, spreading across to the east as the trough axis deepens and comes closer to the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT SUNDAY... Key Message: 1) Lingering showers through the early weekend A deep trough axis positioned through the OH Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic will be the cause of much of the weather for this period. Said trough will encourage the development and strengthening of a surface low along the east coast. This low exits to the north sometime on Saturday, while the larger upper level trough will maintain its position overhead for a bit longer. Both of these features will serve to support to formation of showers on and off through much of Saturday, and begin to clear on Sunday as we will then likely be on the backside of the trough. High pressure and ridging in the wake of the trough will quiet our weather down for Sunday and Monday. In addition, temperatures will moderate warmer over the weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 830 PM EDT Monday... Terminal conditions Monday evening into Tuesday morning will be mixed as differing cloud heights and precipitation pass through the night. Low clouds from a stronger cold front from the north are forecast to bring KWLB to MVFR and KBLF to LIFR overnight. These terminals are also the most likely to experience upslope snow Tuesday morning (around 10-14Z) with only a trace in accumulation expected. This cold front may also bring the low clouds as far east as KBCB to temporarily reduce conditions to MVFR just before sunrise. Persistent showers from a separate cold front currently in the Mid-Atlantic will continue overnight and keep KDAN and KLYH sub- VFR into Tuesday morning. Both of these terminals are forecast to be at least MVFR due to the reduced visibilities from the rain and low clouds. KROA is likely to be the only terminal to stay VFR throughout the forecast period and avoid most of the rain and low clouds. Even so, gusty winds of 15-25 kts will be present at all airports for the forecast period. By Tuesday afternoon, the stronger cold front will have passed through and colder, drier, and stable air will move in. All terminals will have clear skies and VFR conditions for the rest of Tuesday. Confidence in this forecast is average. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The stronger cold front that passes through Tuesday morning will bring in clear skies and VFR conditions for the next few days. A low pressure system may bring another chance of precipitation (and thus sub-VFR conditions) as early as Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...CG/WP SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...CG