840
FXUS61 KAKQ 271049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
649 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with scattered afternoon and evening
storms are expected today. Hot and humid weather persists
through the middle of the week before cooler temperatures
arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for portions of SE VA
  and NE NC today with Heat Advisories in effect elsewhere
  (apart from the MD beaches).

- Scattered storms are likely this afternoon and evening, with
  the highest coverage along and east of I-95. Some of the
  storms could produce damaging wind gusts and/or flooding.

Today will likely be the hottest day of the current heat wave as the
front washes out and the flow becomes light out of the SW. The ridge
retrogrades enough to allow the flow aloft to become NW and increase
a bit over the local area. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 90s
for most with low-mid 90s along the coast, lower 90s across inland
portions of the Eastern Shore, and mid 80s along the MD beaches.
Meanwhile, dew points in the upper 70s to near 80F are likely along
and E of I-95 today with mid 70s W. Given that models have trended
higher with temps and dew points, heat indices (what it feels like)
have trended higher as well. Heat indices are now expected to rise
up to around 110F across SE VA and NE NC with 105-109F expected
elsewhere (apart from the MD beaches). DESI HREF probs for heat
indices >109F have increased to 40-60% along and E of I-95 and
generally along and S of I-64. As such, confidence has increased
enough in reaching heat indices of 110F to upgrade portions of SE VA
and interior NE NC to an Excessive Heat Warning today. Will note
that there is some potential for the warning to be expanded a bit W
and N, however, confidence was lower for these areas. The other
change to the headlines was to expand the Heat Advisories to include
the Currituck beaches and most of the Eastern Shore (with the
exception of the MD beaches).

Apart from the heat, scattered storms are still expected to form
this afternoon initially along a sea breeze across NE NC and then
later this afternoon across the N Piedmont, spreading SE into the
evening. The 00z HREF still shows a 30% chance for 3" of rain in 3
hrs from 18-21z/2-5 PM across NE NC where confidence in locally
heavy rain is highest. While convection may keep some portions of
the Extreme Heat Warning area from reaching criteria, locations just
outside (generally NW) of the convection will likely remain very hot
with heat indices around 110F. Otherwise, the main line of scattered
storms is expected to move SE across the FA later this afternoon
into this evening. The greatest severe threat exists with this line
given ample CAPE and the likelihood for a decent cold pool to form
given inverted-V soundings. Damaging winds are the primary threat.
As such, SPC has maintained a Marginal risk for severe storms across
the entire FA. Additionally, while storms will be moving, locally
heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible given very high PWATs
of 2-2.5". WPC has expanded the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
across much of the area (outside of the SW half) to account for the
localized flooding potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid weather continues through mid week with
  widespread heat indices of 105 to 109F expected each day.

Aloft, the ridge slowly retrogrades early this week to the W.
However, enough of the ridge remains over the area to allow for
continued hot and humid weather. Highs are expected to be mainly in
the mid 90s on Mon (lower 90s across the Eastern Shore) with temps
warming into the mid-upper 90s Tue and Wed. Meanwhile, the humidity
sticks around with mid to locally 70s dew points likely. As such,
widespread heat indices of 105-109F are expected across the area
(perhaps a bit lower across the Eastern Shore). Cannot rule out a
few localized heat indices of 110F across portions of NE NC on Mon,
however confidence is low. As such, widespread Heat Advisories will
likely continue to be needed through at least Wed.

Apart from the heat, scattered storms are possible Mon afternoon
across far SE VA/NE NC (30-50% PoPs). Cannot rule out additional
isolated storms Tue or Wed afternoons, mainly across the
Piedmont, however, confidence is low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers and storms are likely Thursday into Friday
  as a strong cold front moves south across the area.

- Much cooler weather returns Friday into next weekend.

Aloft, the ridge continues to retrograde W through midweek with a
trough dropping S into the East Coast by late week. A strong ~1028mb
high drops S out of Canada with the trough, pushing a seasonally
strong cold front through the area Thu into Thu night. Uncertainty
exists for Thu regarding the exact timing of the front. If the front
trends faster, then Thu will be cooler with heat indices likely
remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. However, if the front trends
slower, then moisture pooling ahead of the front would allow for
heat indices to approach 105F+ once again with Heat Advisories
potentially needed for a portion of the FA. In any case, once the
convection arrives with the front, a noticeable change in temps
is expected.

Widespread showers and storms are expected Thu afternoon into Fri
afternoon ahead of and behind the cold front. For now, PoPs have
increased to 60-70% across the area. In fact, there is a decent
signal in the models and ensembles in a soaking rain across the
area. While the GEFS and EPS disagree with which day will be
the wettest (the GEFS prefers Thu and the EPS Fri), both
ensembles show the potential for widespread rainfall totals of
0.75-1.25" (locally higher) across the area. Given the signal,
WPC has placed the area under a Slight risk for excessive
rainfall for Thu. The cold front ushers us from the July heat
wave to the August reprieve as highs only in the upper 70s NW to
mid 80s SE are expected on Fri (Aug 1). Highs remain generally
in the lower (locally mid) 80s Sat and Sun with lows in the 60s
inland. In fact, the NBM has lows Sat night only in the upper
50s across portions of Louisa! In any case, relief from the heat
is in sight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Sunday...

Generally VFR conditions continue at all sites this morning into
the early afternoon. A stray rain shower cannot be ruled out at
SBY over the next couple of hours. Light and variable winds
this morning become S to SW (~5 to 10 knots). Showers and
thunderstorms develop later this afternoon and evening, with
higher coverage compared to the past few days. PROB30 groups
have been introduced at all TAF sites to account for the
thunderstorm potential. Brief periods of gusty winds and MVFR to
IFR VSBYs (due to heavy rainfall) are possible with any storms
this afternoon and evening. Storms diminish late in the period
with the loss of daytime heating. Will need to watch the
potential for patchy fog early Monday AM, especially in
locations that see rain today.

Outlook: A typical summertime pattern is expected through the
first half of the week with isolated to widely scattered
afternoon/evening showers and storms. Primarily VFR through
Wednesday outside of thunderstorms and any localized IFR
CIGs/VSBYs in the typical spots during the early morning hours
of each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the middle of
the week. Any stronger winds would be associated with storms that
will be handled with MWS/SMWs.

- A stronger cold front approaches and crosses the waters Thursday
into Friday, leading to the next potential for widespread SCA
conditions.

Early this morning, a weak boundary lingers near the waters with
winds generally out of the SE ~10 knots. Seas are running from 1 to
3 feet, and waves in the bay generally around 1 foot. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening will likely be more
widespread than previous days, with localized stronger winds in
storms. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient prevails
over the waters through Wednesday, with winds 5 to 10 knots or
less, and with daily seabreeze influences expected. A fairly
strong cold front (for the time of year) is expected to impact
the area Thursday into Friday, with high pressure building in
from the N heading into next weekend. While this is still well
out into the extended timeframe, SCAs are likely given decent
CAA over the warm waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We are at, or just past, the climatologically warmest week of
the year across the local area. So, while no record highs are
expected to be threatened during the weekend, we do have a
chance of meeting or exceeding record high minimum temps. We`ve
included both for reference.

*Record AM Lows Sat 7/26:

RIC: 78 (sets a new daily record high min).
ORF: 80 (ties the daily record high min).

(there is a slight chc for late aftn/evening storms which could
drop these temperatures so will not send RERs until the
midnight CLI run).

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Sat 7/26 - Sun 7/27

Date     Richmond   Norfolk   Salisbury   Eliz. City

- 7/26:  100/1940    100/1940   98/2012    97/1995
- 7/27:  101/1940    104/1940  102/1940   100/1940


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Sat 7/26 - Sun 7/27

- Date    Richmond   Norfolk   Salisbury   Eliz. City

- 7/26:    76/1989    80/2016   79/2001     78/2009
- 7/27:    78/2005    80/2020   75/2023     78/2020

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ021>024.
NC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>016-030>032.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-102.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ099-100.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ081>084-087>090-092-093-095>097-523>525.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>080-085-086-098-509>522.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/LKB
CLIMATE...