840 FXUS61 KAKQ 271049 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 649 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions with scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected today. Hot and humid weather persists through the middle of the week before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for portions of SE VA and NE NC today with Heat Advisories in effect elsewhere (apart from the MD beaches). - Scattered storms are likely this afternoon and evening, with the highest coverage along and east of I-95. Some of the storms could produce damaging wind gusts and/or flooding. Today will likely be the hottest day of the current heat wave as the front washes out and the flow becomes light out of the SW. The ridge retrogrades enough to allow the flow aloft to become NW and increase a bit over the local area. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 90s for most with low-mid 90s along the coast, lower 90s across inland portions of the Eastern Shore, and mid 80s along the MD beaches. Meanwhile, dew points in the upper 70s to near 80F are likely along and E of I-95 today with mid 70s W. Given that models have trended higher with temps and dew points, heat indices (what it feels like) have trended higher as well. Heat indices are now expected to rise up to around 110F across SE VA and NE NC with 105-109F expected elsewhere (apart from the MD beaches). DESI HREF probs for heat indices >109F have increased to 40-60% along and E of I-95 and generally along and S of I-64. As such, confidence has increased enough in reaching heat indices of 110F to upgrade portions of SE VA and interior NE NC to an Excessive Heat Warning today. Will note that there is some potential for the warning to be expanded a bit W and N, however, confidence was lower for these areas. The other change to the headlines was to expand the Heat Advisories to include the Currituck beaches and most of the Eastern Shore (with the exception of the MD beaches). Apart from the heat, scattered storms are still expected to form this afternoon initially along a sea breeze across NE NC and then later this afternoon across the N Piedmont, spreading SE into the evening. The 00z HREF still shows a 30% chance for 3" of rain in 3 hrs from 18-21z/2-5 PM across NE NC where confidence in locally heavy rain is highest. While convection may keep some portions of the Extreme Heat Warning area from reaching criteria, locations just outside (generally NW) of the convection will likely remain very hot with heat indices around 110F. Otherwise, the main line of scattered storms is expected to move SE across the FA later this afternoon into this evening. The greatest severe threat exists with this line given ample CAPE and the likelihood for a decent cold pool to form given inverted-V soundings. Damaging winds are the primary threat. As such, SPC has maintained a Marginal risk for severe storms across the entire FA. Additionally, while storms will be moving, locally heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible given very high PWATs of 2-2.5". WPC has expanded the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across much of the area (outside of the SW half) to account for the localized flooding potential. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Hot and humid weather continues through mid week with widespread heat indices of 105 to 109F expected each day. Aloft, the ridge slowly retrogrades early this week to the W. However, enough of the ridge remains over the area to allow for continued hot and humid weather. Highs are expected to be mainly in the mid 90s on Mon (lower 90s across the Eastern Shore) with temps warming into the mid-upper 90s Tue and Wed. Meanwhile, the humidity sticks around with mid to locally 70s dew points likely. As such, widespread heat indices of 105-109F are expected across the area (perhaps a bit lower across the Eastern Shore). Cannot rule out a few localized heat indices of 110F across portions of NE NC on Mon, however confidence is low. As such, widespread Heat Advisories will likely continue to be needed through at least Wed. Apart from the heat, scattered storms are possible Mon afternoon across far SE VA/NE NC (30-50% PoPs). Cannot rule out additional isolated storms Tue or Wed afternoons, mainly across the Piedmont, however, confidence is low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Widespread showers and storms are likely Thursday into Friday as a strong cold front moves south across the area. - Much cooler weather returns Friday into next weekend. Aloft, the ridge continues to retrograde W through midweek with a trough dropping S into the East Coast by late week. A strong ~1028mb high drops S out of Canada with the trough, pushing a seasonally strong cold front through the area Thu into Thu night. Uncertainty exists for Thu regarding the exact timing of the front. If the front trends faster, then Thu will be cooler with heat indices likely remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. However, if the front trends slower, then moisture pooling ahead of the front would allow for heat indices to approach 105F+ once again with Heat Advisories potentially needed for a portion of the FA. In any case, once the convection arrives with the front, a noticeable change in temps is expected. Widespread showers and storms are expected Thu afternoon into Fri afternoon ahead of and behind the cold front. For now, PoPs have increased to 60-70% across the area. In fact, there is a decent signal in the models and ensembles in a soaking rain across the area. While the GEFS and EPS disagree with which day will be the wettest (the GEFS prefers Thu and the EPS Fri), both ensembles show the potential for widespread rainfall totals of 0.75-1.25" (locally higher) across the area. Given the signal, WPC has placed the area under a Slight risk for excessive rainfall for Thu. The cold front ushers us from the July heat wave to the August reprieve as highs only in the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE are expected on Fri (Aug 1). Highs remain generally in the lower (locally mid) 80s Sat and Sun with lows in the 60s inland. In fact, the NBM has lows Sat night only in the upper 50s across portions of Louisa! In any case, relief from the heat is in sight. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Sunday... Generally VFR conditions continue at all sites this morning into the early afternoon. A stray rain shower cannot be ruled out at SBY over the next couple of hours. Light and variable winds this morning become S to SW (~5 to 10 knots). Showers and thunderstorms develop later this afternoon and evening, with higher coverage compared to the past few days. PROB30 groups have been introduced at all TAF sites to account for the thunderstorm potential. Brief periods of gusty winds and MVFR to IFR VSBYs (due to heavy rainfall) are possible with any storms this afternoon and evening. Storms diminish late in the period with the loss of daytime heating. Will need to watch the potential for patchy fog early Monday AM, especially in locations that see rain today. Outlook: A typical summertime pattern is expected through the first half of the week with isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms. Primarily VFR through Wednesday outside of thunderstorms and any localized IFR CIGs/VSBYs in the typical spots during the early morning hours of each day. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions expected through the middle of the week. Any stronger winds would be associated with storms that will be handled with MWS/SMWs. - A stronger cold front approaches and crosses the waters Thursday into Friday, leading to the next potential for widespread SCA conditions. Early this morning, a weak boundary lingers near the waters with winds generally out of the SE ~10 knots. Seas are running from 1 to 3 feet, and waves in the bay generally around 1 foot. Shower and thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening will likely be more widespread than previous days, with localized stronger winds in storms. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient prevails over the waters through Wednesday, with winds 5 to 10 knots or less, and with daily seabreeze influences expected. A fairly strong cold front (for the time of year) is expected to impact the area Thursday into Friday, with high pressure building in from the N heading into next weekend. While this is still well out into the extended timeframe, SCAs are likely given decent CAA over the warm waters. && .CLIMATE... We are at, or just past, the climatologically warmest week of the year across the local area. So, while no record highs are expected to be threatened during the weekend, we do have a chance of meeting or exceeding record high minimum temps. We`ve included both for reference. *Record AM Lows Sat 7/26: RIC: 78 (sets a new daily record high min). ORF: 80 (ties the daily record high min). (there is a slight chc for late aftn/evening storms which could drop these temperatures so will not send RERs until the midnight CLI run). Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Sat 7/26 - Sun 7/27 Date Richmond Norfolk Salisbury Eliz. City - 7/26: 100/1940 100/1940 98/2012 97/1995 - 7/27: 101/1940 104/1940 102/1940 100/1940 Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Sat 7/26 - Sun 7/27 - Date Richmond Norfolk Salisbury Eliz. City - 7/26: 76/1989 80/2016 79/2001 78/2009 - 7/27: 78/2005 80/2020 75/2023 78/2020 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>016-030>032. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-102. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ081>084-087>090-092-093-095>097-523>525. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>080-085-086-098-509>522. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJB/LKB CLIMATE...