920 FXUS61 KAKQ 120637 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across interior portions of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina this morning, then washes out today. Unsettled conditions return Friday through at least the early portion of next week as another front slowly pushes in from the north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Patchy fog is possible this morning. - Mainly dry but hot today. The latest WX analysis indicates a weak frontal boundary draped across far southern VA into eastern NC. A subtle upper level trough is also in place. Showers and thunderstorms have ended across the area. In addition, moisture has begun to return. This moisture with very calm winds will allow patchy fog to form across the southern Piedmont and south eastern portion of VA and the Eastern Shore. Latest satellite imagery and observations already show patchy fog developing across these area. Skies will remain mostly clear N, and becoming mostly clear S later this morning, with lows in the low 60s NW to near 70F SE. Once the sun is able to rise this morning the patchy fog will able to clear. Heights aloft continue to rise through Today, as an upper level ridge between Bermuda and Florida expands west through the day. There may be an isolated shower/storm along/near the Albemarle Sound in the aftn, but the coverage will be much more limited compared to today as the frontal boundary weakens/washes out. PoPs have been capped off ~25% across the area. High temps will be into the low 90s for most of the area, with upper 80s near the coast. Dew pts will be mainly in the 60s as day time heating will allow dew points to mix out. This will allow heat indices to be near or just slightly above the actual air temperature. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Very warm and more humid with higher thunderstorm chances Friday- Saturday. By Friday, the upper level ridge becomes centered along or just off the Atlantic coast of FL, as an upper low moves from the southern Plains towards the lower-mid MS Valley. Westerly flow aloft tightens up, along with a weak frontal boundary to the N of the local area. Models continue to trend wetter for Friday, and PoPs have been raised to likely Fri aftn for most of the region. At this time, there is still no SVR outlook in place, but some locally strong to severe storms (mainly wind) will be possible.These storms once again will be pulse in nature as latest forecast soundings show weak shear but ample instability in place. With more cloud cover, highs have been lowered a degree or two, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though higher dew pts will yield heat indices into the mid to perhaps upper 90s. The better day for severe weather looks to be Saturday in the short term. A stationary boundary will slowly drop south through the day. South of the boundary ample daytime heating and a moist airmass will allow for suitable instability to form. Weak shear aloft will ~25 to 30 of Bulk shear will be in place as weak subtle flow form a trough will move across the area. Timing and placement of this boundary is low at the time and trends in the model data will continue to be monitored. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Daily shower and storm chances continue through the early- middle of next week. The latest ensemble guidance from both the GEFS and EPS are in decent agreement through the long term. Conditions continue to look unsettled, especially Sunday/Monday, as an upper level trough pushes in from the NW, slowly dropping a cold front into the region. Will have likely PoPs both days, with highs trending back into the low-mid 80s N, with mid-upper 80s S. A bit more uncertain heading into the middle of next week, with chc PoPs and near normal temperatures Tuesday, trending above normal by Wed, with chc PoPs continuing. Overnight lows remain in the 60s to low 70s through the period. Then by Wednesday a ridge will begin to form again near the region allowing temperatures to rise once again. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Thursday... Mainly VFR conditions to start off the 06z taf period this morning. Latest satellite imagery shows a batch of low level clouds that are causing MVFR conditions at ECG and ORF this morning. These clouds should quickly move out of these Taf sites within the next hour. Latest model guidance and real time observations are showing patchy fog forming across the area. This patchy fog could potentially bring MVFR and possibly IFR conditions across all taf sites this morning. Tempo groups have been added from 8z to 12z. Confidence on the timing is low at this time as well as the length. Winds continue to be light and variable and. However, if the winds are able to calm or drop then the fog will quickly increase. Once the sun is able to rise the patchy fog will be able to dissipate and VFR conditions will prevail through the day. Outlook: VFR/mainly dry Thu night. Scattered to numerous, mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms return Fri-Sun, bringing localized flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Optimal marine conditions persist through the weekend. A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across interior portions of southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina through this morning. This boundary will soon wash out later this afternoon. Winds this morning are between 5 to 10 kt out of the W-SW. Waves this morning are between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean. Later today winds are expected to shift out of the SSE and will be sustained between ~10kt with gusts upwards of 15kt. Waves will not change much through the day and will remain between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean. Through the weekend marine conditions are expected to remain below SCA conditions. Thunderstorm chances increase Friday and through the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HET/LKB NEAR TERM...HET SHORT TERM...HET/LKB LONG TERM...HET/LKB AVIATION...HET MARINE...HET/LKB