653
FXUS61 KAKQ 262343
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
743 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front stalls and dissipates over the area Sunday into
early next week. A stronger cold front crosses the area
Thursday into Thursday night. Hot and humid weather is expected
to persist through the middle of next week before cooler
temperatures arrive by next Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 740 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Isolated showers and storms are possible across the north and
west portions of the area through 11 PM.
Analysis shows a strong upper ridge centered over the Carolinas
and Georgia, with weak westerly flow aloft over the local area.
At the surface, the weakening backdoor cold front has stalled
over southern portions of the FA. Heat Advisories remain in
effect for all zones except for the eastern shore and northern
Outer Banks through 8 PM Sunday.
Storms have struggled to maintain themselves over most of the
area but a few cells could impact the NW third of the region
this evening. Locally heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds are
the main threats from any storms that manage to survive. SPC
has maintained a Marginal severe risk for the northern part of
the area to account for this. Shower/storm chances gradually
diminish later this evening/tonight, but isolated storm chances
may linger across far NE portions of the area through much of
the night. Low temperatures will again generally range from the
mid to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- The heat likely peaks on Sunday, with widespread heat indices
of 105 to 110F likely, with areas across NE NC and far
southern VA potentially seeing max heat indices of 110+F.
- Scattered to perhaps numerous storms are expected Sunday
afternoon and evening, with the highest coverage along and
east of I-95. Some of the storms could produce damaging wind
gusts. There is a low-end flooding threat as well.
Sunday will likely be the hottest day of the period as the front
washes out and the flow becomes light out of the SW. The ridge
retrogrades enough to allow the flow aloft to become NW and increase
a bit over the local area. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 90s
SW to the upper 80s NE. With mid-upper 70s dew points, heat indices
in excess of 105F are likely across much of the area, with a
slightly better chance of 110+F heat indices across NE NC and far
southern VA. However, there has been a notable upward trend with
respect to sea/bay breeze convection by early/mid aftn on Sun. In
fact, there is very good agreement in the CAMs and there are even
localized 30% probs for 3" of rain in 3 hrs from 18-21z/2-5 PM on
the HREF. Would have gone with a targeted Extreme Heat Warning if it
weren`t for the pronounced trend for more (and earlier) convection
in our SE counties. Nevertheless, still could see heat indices
briefly reach 110F before dropping due to the convection across NE
NC and perhaps far srn VA. But, not confident enough in multiple
hours of 110F+ heat indices to change messaging and issue a warning
attm. Of course, will continue to monitor trends and it is possible
that future shifts could issue an Extreme Heat Warning for Sun
aftn/evening. Will keep the end time for heat headlines at 8 PM
Sunday.
The other story for Sunday will be scattered to perhaps numerous
aftn/evening tstms. A weak shortwave is still progged to track over
the area from NW-SE along the periphery of the upper ridge Sunday
evening. As mentioned above, sea/bay breeze convection could
initiate during the early/mid aftn hours with more storms expected
during the remainder of the aftn and into the evening before slowly
weakening after 9-10 PM or so. There will be plenty of instability
in place given the heat/humidity. With the upper flow increasing
slightly (to 20-30 kt), some degree of storm organization is
possible. A few of the storms could produce damaging wind gusts,
with a few 50 kt gusts not out of the question. SPC has expanded the
Marginal severe risk to include our entire CWA to account for the
wind threat. Although storms will be moving to the SE at 15-20 mph
or so, there is a threat for localized urban/poor drainage flooding
as well along and east of I-95 with PWs in the 1.9-2.3" range. WPC
has these areas in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall to account
for the low-end flooding threat.
Still hot on Monday but there may be a very slight break in the heat
in the wake of the shortwave as the LLVL flow becomes northerly.
However, Heat Advisories may be needed, most likely across southern
VA and NE NC. Confidence in hitting advisory criteria is lower
across central and especially NE portions of the FA. Forecast highs
are generally in the lower-mid 90s with lower-mid 70s dew points.
Isolated aftn/evening tstms are possible, with the highest chances
across SW portions of the FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- The heat and humidity continues through Wednesday with additional
heat headlines possible.
- Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Friday.
- Cooler weather returns Friday into next weekend.
Aloft, the ridge continues to retrograde W through midweek with a
trough dropping S into the East Coast by late week. This trough will
eventually drag a cold front through the area by late Thursday or
Friday. While exact timing is uncertain, the latest guidance has
come into better agreement that the front will come through sometime
during the late Thu/Thu night timeframe. Mainly dry (outside of
isolated aftn/evening tstms) with hot and humid weather expected on
Tue/Wed. Max heat indices of 105-109F are still possible through Wed
(and potentially across SE VA/NE NC on Thu). More widespread showers
and tstms are expected Thu aftn-Thu night. Precipitation chances
continue on Friday (along with relief from the heat as forecast
highs are only in the lower 80s). Much lower humidity appears likely
through a good part of the upcoming weekend along with forecast
highs no higher than the mid 80s (with morning lows below 60F
possible inland on both Sat and Sun AM).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Saturday...
Mainly VFR conditions prevail this evening but persistent, moist
onshore flow has resulted in an area of MVFR CIGs near SBY.
Guidance suggests these should mix out over the next hour or so
before filling back in toward midnight, becoming IFR late. Some
fog is also possible, especially in areas that saw some rainfall
today (ECG). Not confident enough to include in the forecast at
this time but the potential exists. E or SE winds 5-10 kt become
light and variable after sunset. S and SW winds are expected on
Sunday with greater coverage of convection expected. Included
PROB30 groups at RIC/SBY for storms coming in from the NW mid to
late afternoon. Some sea breeze convection is also possible a
bit earlier at ORF and ECG with additional storms possible
outside of the 00z TAF period as storms approach from the NW
late.
Outlook: A somewhat higher coverage of showers/storms is
expected Sunday evening toward the coast, bringing local IFR
VSBYs in heavy rain. VFR with a lower storm coverage is
anticipated Mon-Wed.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the middle
of next week. Any stronger winds would be associated with
storms that will be handled with MWS/SMWs.
A very weak backdoor cold front has pushed south into SE VA this
aftn, but with limited CAA, wind speeds are generally only
5-10kt. Seas avg ~2ft, with waves mostly 1 foot or less. Wind
speeds likely show a modest increase into this evening, while
shifting more to the E and then to the SE overnight, but will
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. Seas remain 2 to 3
feet (highest N) tonight, and generally around 2 ft on Sunday. Expect
to see a bit more in the way on tstms Sunday aftn/evening, with
localized stronger winds in storms. Rather weak pressure gradient
prevails Mon-Wed, with winds 5-10kt or less, and with daily
seabreeze influences expected. A fairly strong cold front (for
the time of year) is expected to impact the area late in the
week, with high pressure building in from the N heading into
next weekend. While this is well out into the extended
timeframe, SCAs are likely given decent CAA over the warm
waters.
&&
.CLIMATE...
We are at, or just past, the climatologically warmest week of
the year across the local area. So, while no record highs are
expected to be threatened during the weekend, we do have a
chance of meeting or exceeding record high minimum temps. We`ve
included both for reference.
*Preliminary AM Lows Sat 7/26:
RIC: 78 (would set new daily record high min).
ORF: 81 (would set new daily record high min).
(there is a slight chc for late aftn/evening storms which could
drop these temperatures so will not send RERs until the
midnight CLI run).
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Sat 7/26 - Sun 7/27
Date Richmond Norfolk Salisbury Eliz. City
- 7/26: 100/1940 100/1940 98/2012 97/1995
- 7/27: 101/1940 104/1940 102/1940 100/1940
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Sat 7/26 - Sun 7/27
- Date Richmond Norfolk Salisbury Eliz. City
- 7/26: 76/1989 80/2016 79/2001 78/2009
- 7/27: 78/2005 80/2020 75/2023 78/2020
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...LKB/RHR
CLIMATE...