913 FXUS61 KAKQ 031923 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 323 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts offshore today with much warmer today and Wednesday. A weak area of low pressure develops well south of the area Thursday and nudges up the Southeast coast Thursday night. This feature could bring cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, and some showers. A cold front approaches Friday and crosses the region Saturday, bringing a return to afternoon and evening storm chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Warm this afternoon, followed by lows in the 50s tonight. - Smoke aloft continues to create a hazy appearance to the sky. The center of sfc high pressure has shifted offshore this afternoon, though it extends well westward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, there is a trough and embedded closed low well offshore of New England, with another weak mid-upper low in the eastern Gulf. Clear skies prevail across the region, though a tongue of thicker smoke aloft remains across the eastern CWA with the N-NW flow aloft. This is creating a hazy/milky appearance to the sky. Warm temperatures areawide with obs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs will be a few degrees warmer in the mid 80s. Lows tonight in the mid- upper 50s, though cannot rule out some lower 50s in interior portions of srn VA and NE NC. Ridging expands along the East Coast into New England Wednesday. Meanwhile, the upper low along the Gulf coast slowly meanders northward. Not expecting any impacts from this low Wednesday, other than some increased mid-upper cloud cover later in the day. With the higher heights and strengthening southerly flow, warmer temps in the mid-upper 80s are expected. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Low pressure moving up the Carolina coast casts uncertainty Thursday into Friday, but increased clouds and showers have been introduced into the forecast. - High temperatures have also trended cooler for Thursday and Friday. There is decent model agreement that the area remains dry into Wednesday night. Overnight lows only dip into the lower 60s under a mostly cloudy sky. There remains considerable uncertainty in the Thursday-Friday timeframe as there is large model spread surrounding the evolution of the upper low and attendant sfc low that is poised to develop along the coast or just inland. The low is not likely to move fast given nebulous flow aloft with the ridge to the north. The 12z deterministic guidance generally funnels moisture further north compared to the 00z suite and PoPs have been raised into the 30-40% range across the southern half of the area from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning as the sfc low meanders inland or near the coast of NC, eventually crawling over or just S of our area Friday. There is also uncertainty on how long any precip lasts, with some guidance (including the 12z ECMWF) keeping precip across our S through Friday afternoon. Also should mention that NHC has highlighted this low as having a very low (10%) chance of briefly developing subtropical or tropical characteristics later in the week. This would be contingent on the low remaining offshore. Even if it does, no ensemble member from the EPS/GEFS suite drops the min pressure below 1005-1006 mb. Overall, this low likely doesn`t produce significant impacts across our area, with impacts limited to moderate to locally heavy rainfall later Thursday across NE NC and the lower temps Thursday into Friday. With the clouds around and cooler temps, instability looks rather meager Thursday and Friday. There could be some recovery later Friday to support renewed shower/storm development as a cold front and shortwave aloft approach from the W. However, this potential is also of low confidence given the previous discussion surrounding the coastal low. Unfortunately for those who were looking forward to the summer-like temps this week, there have been significant downward adjustments to the high temperatures Thursday and Friday, with upper 70s Thursday and lower 80s Friday. If rain or clouds linger during peak heating Thursday or Friday, these temps could be even lower. In fact, the GFS continues to suggest temps struggle to warm out of the 60s Thursday. Looking through all of the global ensemble members, this scenario is near the 5-10th percentile of potential outcomes so am not too inclined to believe this at the current moment. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Warm to hot temperatures with increased shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday ahead of a cold front. - Drier Sunday, followed by more unsettled weather early next week. Enhanced mid-level flow (30-40 kt at 500 mb) overspreads the area Saturday and the GEFS/EPS ensembles are in good agreement that a cold front will cross the area during the afternoon or evening. An attendant shortwave aloft should also support a higher coverage of showers/tstms and PoPs remain the 50-60% range for the area, with the highest coverage across the N and NW. With dew points near 70 and warm temps, instability could be favorable for some strong to severe tstms. A few of the machine learning aids continue to hint at this possibility. The coverage of precip should drop off overnight Saturday as the cold front sags S. Sunday now looks drier, outside a few pop-up afternoon showers. Highest PoPs are S of the area and closer to the remnant frontal feature, which is supported by diminishing PW anomalies in the 12z EPS/GEFS. An unsettled pattern may develop by Monday and Tuesday along a developing frontal wave, with EPS/GEFS showing an increase in PW anomalies. Forecast highs are in the mid/upper 80s ahead of the front Saturday, and it will be noticeable more humid with dewpoints nearing or reaching 70F. Would not be surprised if we see some lower 90s Saturday, especially if convection holds off until later in the day. Temperatures trend back toward average Sunday into early next week behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 103 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Rain-free conditions will continue through tomorrow afternoon, with mostly clear skies expected. Surface winds will be generally light from the S, aside from ORF where NE winds are occuring this afternoon due to local sea breeze effects through the evening. Mainly dry conditions expected through at least early Thursday with high confidence of VFR conditions prevailing through midweek. A weak system along the coast will bring a slight chc of showers to SE VA/NE NC later Thursday into Thursday night. A cold front approaches from the NW Friday bringing a 20-30% chc of showers/tstms, with a higher chc of showers/tstms Saturday as the front moves closer to the area. && .MARINE... As of 323 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions prevail through much of the week, as high pressure settles off the coast. Southerly winds will be highest (~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt) during the late afternoon-late evening from today-Thursday. - A low pressure system develops to our south on Thursday, and this could bring SCA conditions to part of the marine area on Friday with E-SE winds and increasing seas. However, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with respect to the strength/track of the low. High pressure is slowly sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon, and light winds are still being observed across the local waters. As the high slips further offshore this evening into tonight, the gradient on the back side of the high will tighten, resulting in winds briefly surging to 10 to 15 kts (~15 kts in the Bay), with gusts to 20 kts possible. Winds will quickly diminish by early tomorrow morning to 5 to 10 kt and become SSW. Tomorrow and Thursday will be similar to today`s wind pattern, featuring lighter winds in the morning followed by a wind surge in the late afternoon/evening hours. Sub-SCA conditions will prevail through Thursday, and seas will be generally 2-3 ft in the coastal waters and waves will be 1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay. There is still some uncertainty regarding the development and exact track/strength of a weak surface low later this week. Guidance is forecasting that the low will develop across the Carolinas Thursday and track NE towards the area through Friday. The question remains is how far south of the area will the low track. This will be important in terms of wind speeds across waters during the Thursday night through Friday timeframe. Some guidance is suggesting that the low will be more suppressed to our south, while others suggest it will be a much closer approach to our southern waters. Regardless of the exact track of the system, increasing SE swell produced by the low will put our coastal waters into SCA conditions with seas building to ~5 ft by Friday. The low will track NE out into the western North Atlantic on Saturday, and seas (and potentially winds) are forecast to subside below SCA criteria by Saturday afternoon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...AJZ/SW LONG TERM...AJZ/SW AVIATION...AJZ/NB MARINE...ERI/NB