516
FXUS61 KRNK 110732
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
332 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over the central Appalachians will move east
today bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms, before tracking
offshore Saturday. Sunday and Monday will be dry and warmer under
high pressure. Another front sends temperatures below normal
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

     - No change to Dense Fog Advisory

     - High confidence for more rain today

     - Threat of Flooding has diminished

Numerous stations were reporting visibility less than one half
mile, including along I-77 through Fancy Gap. As showers move
into the areas from central North Carolina between 5-8AM the
visibility will improve in locations with rain. No change is
planned to the Dense Fog Advisory.

Upper tough over the eastern United States continued to amplify as a
cluster of short wave energy digs through the Tennessee Valley. A
500 MB closes off over Virginia by Saturday morning. Positive
vorticity advection, colder air aloft and larger lapse rates, and
some upper diffluence this morning all aide in providing lift and
more rain for the area today. The air mass overall cools and 850 mb
temperatures by late tonight drop below zero degC in the mountains.

The surface low crosses North Carolina by the end of the day with
the wind turning from the southeast to northeast to northwest. The
northwest wind and passage of the cold front will result in the
ending the precipitation east of the Blue Ridge. In the west the low
level jet is less then 30 kts and the wind direction is more north
than would be as favorable for upslope precipitation. The clouds
will linger over the mountains but any precipitation will be light.

Will maintain a 20 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the
piedmont of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina where NBM
probabilities are the highest this afternoon. There is also a low
threat of flooding in the Virginia piedmont east of US-29 where the
duration of the rainfall will be longer today.

Based on the cloud cover and expected precipitation will again have
maximum temperatures on the cold end of the range of guidance for
today. Lows tonight will be near normal.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for cooler and unsettled weather to linger
into Saturday.

2) Drier weather will arrive by Sunday, and above normal
temperatures should return on Monday ahead of a cold front.

A deep upper level low will slowly drift towards the East Coast on
Saturday. Showers may linger during the morning and slowly fade by
the afternoon. Upslope flow from a gusty northwest wind and colder
air may allow some snow showers to mix with the rain across the
higher elevations from Boone to Lewisburg, but hardly any
accumulations are expected. Drier air should bring an end to the
lingering moisture by Saturday night. While temperatures will remain
well below normal for Saturday and into Sunday morning, they will
moderate by Sunday afternoon as high pressure arrives. However, a
weak warm front may provide a low chance of showers across parts of
Bath and Greenbrier counties during early Sunday night.

Monday appears notably warmer as an upper level ridge builds
overhead and a southwest breeze develops. The increased sunshine and
warm air advection should push temperatures into the 70s for a
majority of locations. The southwest breeze is in response to an
approaching cold front over the Ohio River Valley. This frontal
boundary may bring scattered showers towards the Appalachian
Mountains by Monday evening, and there may be enough instability for
an isolated thunderstorm across southeast West Virginia before the
atmosphere stabilizes during Monday night. Because the cold front
does not contain a lot of moisture, it appears that the rain may
stay mostly west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for cooler weather and a gusty northwest
wind during Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Drier conditions should return on Wednesday, but another cold
front could approach by late Thursday.

By Tuesday, a cold front should sweep across the Mid Atlantic.
Colder and drier air should follow in the wake of this frontal
boundary, which will allow a gusty northwest wind to shove
temperatures lower on Tuesday night. Lingering upslope moisture
across southeast West Virginia should fade by early Wednesday
morning. With high pressure returning on Wednesday, drier conditions
should return. Temperature should moderate back to near normal
values by Thursday as the flow turns to the southwest to increase
warm air advection. Another cold front will approach from the west
to provide a chance of showers towards late Thursday.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...

Conditions ranged from VFR in far southwest Virginia to LIFR in
the Virginia piedmont due to ceilings and dense fog. As
showers move into the areas from central North Carolina between
5-8AM the visibility will improve in locations with rain.

A surface low crosses North Carolina by the end of the day with
the wind turning from the southeast to northeast to northwest.
The northwest wind and passage of the cold front will result in
the ending the precipitation east of the Blue Ridge. In the west
the low level jet is less then 30 kts and the wind direction is
more north than would be more favorable for upslope precipitation.

The MVFR to IFR clouds will remain over the area through at
least 00Z/8PM. NBM has the highest probability of thunderstorms,
20 to 30 percent in the piedmont of southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina this afternoon. Confidence too low to
include in the KDAN TAF at this time.

Above average confidence for sub-VFR for most of the TAF period
Average confidence on wind and when the rain will end this
evening.

FYI...The ASOS at KLYH ceilometer readings may be compromised
due to equipment issues. Use the reported ceiling with caution.
AMD NOT SKED has been added to the KLYH TAF.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Showers and sub-VFR linger into early Saturday, and even after
showers end, it may take until Sunday morning for the area to
return to VFR flight conditions.

Expect VFR Sunday into Monday. May see some sub-VFR cigs with a
few showers Tuesday but low confidence.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ010>020-
     022>024-032>035-043>046-058.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ001>005-
     018>020.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/EB