786 FXUS61 KLWX 030118 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 918 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually build over the area through Tuesday, before sliding east Wednesday and Thursday. A low pressure system will approach the region toward the end of the week, with the frontal zone settling across the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure will continue to settle overhead tonight as upper troughing aloft departs offshore. Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds are forecast, with a bit of smoke lingering aloft. Recent model runs suggest that some smoke may start to make it down to the surface late tonight, especially in the mountains. The only other concern tonight will be the potential for some fog to form in deeper river valleys. With mostly clear skies and light to calm winds, another cool night is expected. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the 40s and lower 50s for most, with mid to upper 50s in DC, Baltimore, and along the shores of the Bay. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Ridging maintains dry weather through Wednesday night. HRRR smoke model indicates potential for hazy skies Tuesday as the advancing ridge advects smoke which has settled to our southwest. Our air quality partners will determine if this could ultimately affect near surface conditions. There may be a few more clouds around Wednesday. The building ridge and departing surface high will result in a rapid warming of the airmass. Tuesday`s highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, followed by temperatures reaching the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday night. Highs on Wednesday will rise into the mid 80s to around 90, and dew points rising into the lower to mid 60s will make it feel a bit muggier as well. Likewise, lows only drop into the 60s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A ridge of high pressure over the mid-Atlantic should have enough of an influence in the weather that our region should remain dry on Thursday into Thursday night. An exception to this could be western Maryland where the ridge is weaker and weak pieces of energy arrive from the west. There is a chance for a couple of showers or a thunderstorm in these areas. High temperatures should reach the upper 80s Thursday, if not the lower 90s in many eastern places that get good sunshine. Dry conditions should hold true Friday into Friday night for the eastern and southern zones. The western and northern zones would likely get showers and a few thunderstorms midday Friday into Friday night, when additional waves of energy push across the region from the west. High temperatures again should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Places that have cloud cover and convection in the west and north would likely be lower 80s for temperatures. Through the day Saturday into Saturday night, the ridge of high pressure will pretty much be gone from the region. A surface trough of low pressure over the central zones, and a surface cold front approaching from the west, along with increased instability will all lead to a semi-active to active day on Saturday into Saturday night. Highs lower to middle 80s. The front may settle to the south Sunday into Monday, but could be close enough by to result in continued chances of some showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend lower but could remain a little above normal. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through Wednesday night with high pressure in control. There is some potential for river valley fog tonight, though current guidance does not indicate any affecting MRB. Some high altitude smoke from Canadian wildfires may be present off and on throughout the period as well. Visibilities could be affected slightly Tuesday in particular, but as of now, this does not appear to be similar to events last year. Winds will remain light and variable through tonight, before becoming light out of the south on Tuesday. VFR conditions should largely Thursday through Friday night. However, the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase each day, with MRB having the highest chance of being affected. Winds south to southwest 5 to 10 knots through the period. && .MARINE... Winds already showing signs of being variable/diurnally driven as surface high pressure moves overhead through tonight. Winds should more predominantly become south to southeast by Tuesday afternoon as the high starts to slide to the east. Southerly flow will begin to increase in intensity by Wednesday through Friday with high pressure off the coast. Winds should remain below SCA criteria during the day, as air temps will be much warmer than water temperatures. However, as temperatures cool closer to the water temperatures during the evening and overnight periods, the pattern becomes favorable for southerly channeling along the bay Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights. SCAs may be needed at times during this period. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...KJP SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...ADS/KLW MARINE...ADS/KLW