853 FXUS61 KAKQ 021833 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 233 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the area through tonight. The high shifts offshore Tuesday with much warmer temperatures for the rest of the week. A weak area of low pressure develops well south of the area Thursday. A cold front approaches Friday and crosses the region Saturday, bringing a return to afternoon and evening shower and storm chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Seasonably cool, dry, and sunny this afternoon. - One more cool night tonight with lows in the 50s (a few upper 40s possible in typically cooler spots). High pressure has settled overhead this afternoon as an upper trough axis shifts offshore. A very nice day locally with sunny skies. The one exception is some lower-level cumulus in NE NC, especially along the Albemarle Sound. Highs in the mid 70s (upper 70s possible in NC) this afternoon, along with a generally light N-NW wind. Mainly clear tonight with lows in the 50s. A few upper 40s are possible inland where radiational cooling may be enhanced in the vicinity of the sfc high center. Skies are generally less hazy today with the highest smoke concentrations aloft S of the area. However, visible satellite shows another batch moving in from the W. Smoke modeling guidance suggests these higher concentrations could linger into late tonight, but still not expecting an impacts at the surface. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry, mostly sunny, and much warmer Tuesday and Wednesday. - Increased clouds, but still warm, Thursday. A pronounced warming trend, especially compared to the seasonably cool weather of late, begins Tuesday. Forecast highs are 8-10 degrees F warmer than today and range through the 80s, with lower 80s on the Eastern Shore and mid 80s W of the Chesapeake Bay. With the upper flow remaining out of the NW (as a ridge builds just W of the area), additional Canadian wildfire smoke may stream in toward the area and linger near the coast through the day. Also turning milder overnight Tuesday with lows only falling into the upper 50s- lower 60s. Sfc high pressure shifts offshore by Wednesday as ridging aloft expands across the East Coast. Therefore, an even warmer day is in store for Wednesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s. A weak area of low pressure (and upper low aloft) takes shape along the SE coast later Wednesday, but expect any clouds and moisture to remain S of the area through the short-term period. Dew points will inch up some to near 60 F but it should still feel rather comfortable out. The weak sfc and upper low drift N along the Carolina coast Thursday into Friday. This could bring some increased cloud cover to southern portions of the area Thursday. However, expecting mainly dry wx through Thursday night with any rainfall from the low staying suppressed to our S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Warm/hot temperatures to end the week with gradually increasing shower/storm chances Friday into Saturday. By Friday, modest height falls from the low moving N and an approaching shortwave sliding through the OH Valley could be enough of a trigger for isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday. The highest dew points and instability are expected across the S, so these areas appear to have the best chance for thunder Friday. Overall, storm coverage still looks to be quite limited given the less-than-favorable forcing. Enhanced mid-level flow (25-35 kt at 500 mb) overspreads the area Saturday and the GEFS/EPS ensembles are in reasonably good agreement that a cold front will cross the area during the afternoon or evening. An attendant shortwave aloft should also support a higher coverage of showers and storms and PoPs have been nudged up to 50- 60%, with the highest coverage across northern and northwest portions of the forecast area. With dew points near 70 and warm temps, instability could be favorable for some stronger storms. A few of the machine learning aids are also picking up on this possibility. The coverage of precip should drop off overnight Saturday as the cold front sags S. By Sunday, uncertainty increases as precip coverage depends on the frontal evolution. For now, highest PoPs are S of the area and closer to the remnant frontal feature. Diurnal convection is again possible next Monday as models hint at a developing frontal wave. Continued warmth to end the work week as highs remain in the 80s to perhaps around 90 F. The increased cloud cover across southern VA and NE NC Thursday-Friday should keep these areas a couple degrees cooler. Still, these temps will feel much warmer than the cooler stretch that plagued the end of May. Remaining warm/hot for Saturday ahead of the front Saturday, followed by slightly cooler temps and lower humidity Sunday in the wake of the front. Overnight lows range through the 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions across local terminals to begin the 18z TAF period will prevail through period and beyond through at least midweek. Light NNE winds become variable this evening and overnight. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected through Thursday with high confidence of VFR conditions prevailing through midweek. Next system will bring increasing rain chances by later Friday into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 215 PM EDT Monday... - Benign marine conditions prevail tonight through much of the week, as high pressure builds over the region and then settles off the coast later Tuesday through midweek. Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb sfc high pressure centered west of the waters. Weak low pressure is now offshore of the NC Outer Banks as of this writing, with its associated sfc cold front now offshore of the coastal Carolinas. Winds have diminished to 5-10 kt, and veered around to the E-NE early this afternoon. Waves 1-2 ft, Seas were generally 2-3 ft High pressure builds over the region through early Tuesday, before eventually settling offshore later tomorrow through the latter half of the week. E-NE winds will veer around to the S to SW Tuesday as the high builds over the region then slides offshore. Weak gradient will keep speeds primarily at or below 15kt, strongest during the diurnally favored late aftn/evening hours. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Deterministic models still showing a weak surface wave developing off the SE coast and lifting NNE toward the local waters Fri into the weekend. This would result in winds backing to the S-SE winds and increasing to ~15 kt later Fri into Saturday. Onshore flow and resultant SE swell would then result in seas building to 3-4 ft (waves 2-3ft) Fri night into Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...MAM/RMM MARINE...AJZ/MAM