974 FXUS61 KAKQ 050539 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 139 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front crosses most of the area this evening through part of tonight, before retreating back to the north on Saturday. A higher chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives late Sunday into Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for below freezing temperatures Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1000 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight. The storms will very likely be sub- severe. Evening wx analysis shows developing low pressure in the lower Mississippi River Valley, with high pressure at the sfc and aloft offshore of the SE CONUS coast. A cold front has moved through most of the area, now stalling near the VA/MD border. Temperatures have dropped rather quickly this evening w/ the FROPA, especially near the coast with the cooler water. As the front advances through the area, scattered showers have begun to pop up to the north of the front. Showers currently are more scattered in the piedmont and isolated in SE VA. The highest coverage of showers/storms will move back to the north and east overnight. Not everyone will see rain and NE NC very likely remains dry, as PoPs are no higher than 30-50%. The storms are expected to be sub-severe. Lows fall into the mid 50s-lower 60s in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures expected this weekend. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday along a cold front. The backdoor cold front moves to our north on Saturday, leading to a very warm day with highs in the 80s. Dry wx is also expected as that strong ridge remains in place just off the SE CONUS coast. Mild/humid Saturday night with lows in the 60s. Becoming a bit breezy late with gusts to 20-25 mph possible. A pattern change is expected late this weekend into Monday as deep troughing over the MS River Valley finally pushes toward the area. Meanwhile, at the surface, the stalled front that has been reeking havoc on the Mid- South and Red River Valley area will finally start to move towards the East Coast as the aforementioned ridge aloft starts to break down/move offshore. The front is progged to move through the area Sunday night through Monday morning. Mainly dry through the first part of Sunday but showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the afternoon (mainly W/NW) and become more numerous as they overspread the entire area Sunday night as the front nears. Abundant atmospheric moisture will be present with PWs rising to 1.5- 1.7" by Sunday evening. In addition, temps will be in the 80s with 60s dew pts Sun aftn before the storms arrive. As a result, there will be at least some instability (and good forcing) present as the front moves through. There will initially be a low-end severe threat for hail/damaging wind during the aftn and evening...which will transition into a marginal threat for urban/poor drainage flooding during the evening/overnight. Note that NE NC may not see much in the way of rain until Monday AM. Breezy conditions are expected on Sunday outside of storms with southwesterly gusts to 30 mph forecast. Rain likely ends across NW portions of the area by midday Monday, but will likely continue for several hours following the FROPA across central and especially SE portions of the FA. Areal avg QPFs are 0.5-1.0" through 12z/8 AM Mon, with an additional 0.5-1.5" likely on Monday across SE VA and NE NC. This is a rather strong front for early April and temps Monday afternoon will very likely be in the lower-mid 50s (and some guidance suggests 40s in areas that see persistent rainfall). Precip finally diminishes Monday night with lows dropping into the mid 30s-mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Cooler, seasonable temperatures return next week and confidence in below freezing temperatures is increasing Tuesday night. A secondary cold front crosses the area Tuesday morning with 850mb temps dropping to -5 to -10C by noon. While sunny skies/breezy NW winds will allow for good mixing on Tuesday, temperatures will only reach the 50s across the FA, which is a few degrees below normal for this time of year. Min RH values will be in the 20-35% range...but the rain Sun night-Mon should mitigate the fire weather threat. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will then prevail through Wednesday night. With lighter winds and clear skies on Tuesday night, radiational cooling is likely and a decent chunk of the forecast area may see temperatures drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s, so Frost/Freeze products may need to be issued Tuesday night. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal again on Wednesday, with highs still generally in the 50s. Flow will become onshore, so high temperatures immediately along the coast may be a few degrees cooler than inland. Wednesday night there is good agreement that a shortwave will start to approach the forecast area, so we will see increasing cloudiness overnight. There is a chance for radiational cooling again Wednesday night, but the window will be confined to the first few hours of the night ahead of these clouds. Temperatures will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Heading into the latter part of next week is where global models start to diverge on what becomes of the aforementioned shortwave, with widely varying solutions. The details of the forecast will be ironed out over the next few days as the details become more clear. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 139 AM EDT Saturday... IFR to LIFR CIGS are starting to impact terminals tonight, with KORF intermittently reporting OVC006. CIGS at other terminals will continue to drop over the next few hours, with all but ECG expected to have at least IFR conditions for a few hours later this morning as a warm front lifts through the area. Due to the isolated nature of the storms currently on radar along the front, have decided not to include mention of showers at any terminal at this time. Showers will continue to lift to the N, so SBY could see a few showers impact the terminal between 12z-15z. The front will push through SBY the latest, so have included low CIGS there starting at 15Z after the boundary moves through. By early afternoon, conditions should start to improve at all sites, with SBY finally seeing improving conditions by mid-afternoon. Winds will be generally from the east at all terminals aside from ECG (front did not make it there), then will shift to the southeast to south later this morning as the warm front moves through. By later this afternoon, winds will increase and occasional gusts to 20 kts are possible. One caveat for possible VIS restrictions is if marine fog is able to develop as winds shift to the south later this morning. If this does occur, ECG, ORF, and PHF could experience a period of fog at the terminals this morning before it lifts this afternoon. There is lower confidence in this, so have no included mention of FG in the TAFs at this time, but we will continue to monitor any fog development over the next few hours. Outlook: VFR Saturday afternoon through Sunday as the front stays out of the area. A cold front from the west will then move into the area Sunday night into Monday bringing widespread showers and a few storms. Some flight restrictions are likely. && .MARINE... As of 320 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Breezy, but Sub-SCA conditions through tomorrow afternoon - Another period of SCA conditions is likely later this weekend and early next week ahead of and behind a strong cold front. A backdoor cold front remains in the vicinity of local waters, located right along the northern edge as of latest analysis. Latest obs indicate westerly winds around 10kt with gusts to 15kt over most of the waters. The MD coastal waters are N of the front and have onshore winds. The front will continue to sink S through the evening with winds becoming ENE behind it. Becoming a bit breezier behind it as well, increasing to around 15kt, highest in the mouth of the bay and adjacent waters. Seas will stay around 3ft through the night. Waves will generally be 1-2ft, up to 3ft in the lower bay. The front then pushes N again tomorrow with winds becoming southerly again during the morning (10-15kt). Going into Saturday night, the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front set to cross the region Sunday night. SCAs will likely be needed starting early Sat night as SW winds increase. Winds of 15-20kt expected during the overnight hours, increasing to 20-25kt during the day Sun. Seas increase to 5-6ft in northern waters and 4-5ft in southern waters. Waves will be 2-4ft. Also, showers and thunderstorms are expected with the front, which may bring heavy rain and strong wind gusts in stronger storms. Winds will remain elevated and variable in direction Monday. May see a brief break from SCAs, but another round of elevated winds are anticipated with the CAA behind a secondary cold front Monday night into Tuesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI NEAR TERM...ERI/KMC SHORT TERM...ERI/NB LONG TERM...ERI/NB AVIATION...KMC/NB MARINE...AC