031 FXUS61 KAKQ 132340 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front moves through tonight with a reinforcing cold front moving through the area Tuesday night. This will result in cold temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures moderate by late week into the weekend. Dry weather prevails through Friday night with rain chances increasing this weekend. Another cold front pushes through Sunday with cooler weather expected by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1101 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Milder temperatures expected this afternoon, with highs in the 40s to low 50s. - A dry cold front will push through from the west and move across the area tonight. The gradient across the region remains weak as a relatively benign pressure pattern lingers in the area. Upper-level cloud cover is slowly receding to the southeast, and clearing skies are moving in its wake. With sunshine overtaking the local area, temperatures will be able to rise into the mid to upper 40s, and even into the lower 50s in some area. Unfortunately, these milder temperatures will not last long. A surface cold front will move from the west during the day today and advance through our area tonight. With little atmospheric moisture associated with this front, precipitation chances will be near nil during its passage. Temperatures will slowly drop overnight into the upper teens to the 20s behind the front, but the coldest temperatures will not be realized until tomorrow night, so Cold Weather Advisories are not on the table yet. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Breezy conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, especially near the coast. - Cold conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with wind chills in the single digits possible across the northern half of the area both nights. Cold Weather Advisories may be needed for some of the area. A dry cold front moves through tonight with a reinforcing cold front moving through the area Tue night. This will result in cold temperatures on Tue and Wed. A breezy W wind develops on Tue with gusts up to 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph along the coast and across the Eastern Shore. Highs Tue are expected to range from the low-mid 30s across the Eastern Shore to the low-mid 40s across S VA/ NE NC with wind chills generally below freezing apart from SE VA/NE NC during the afternoon. The coldest air arrives Tue night into Wed behind the second cold front with winds becoming NW and remaining elevated through the night, especially along the coast and across the Eastern Shore. Wind gusts for these areas remain 20-30 mph through the night, allowing for cold wind chills. Wind chills will be very cold everywhere Tue night into Wed morning with single digit values across the N half of the FA and lower teens across the S half. As such, Cold Weather Advisories are possible for some of the FA Tue night into Wed morning with the best chance across the Eastern Shore where winds are strongest. Additionally, cannot completely rule out a brief, isolated flurry E of I-95 early Tue night as a shortwave moves through. However, forecast soundings show fairly dry air in the lowest levels and only marginal saturation in the DGZ. As such, confidence is too low to go with mentionable PoPs. Breezy conditions continue into Wed with gusts up to 20 mph inland and up to 30 mph along the coast and across the Eastern Shore. This will allow for wind chills to remain in the 20s for most areas in the afternoon given highs in the lower 30s N and upper 30s S. Winds diminish Wed night as high pressure builds in. However, with calm winds and clear skies, expect temps to drop into the teens inland with near single digits possible across the far N portions of the FA. A light NW wind is possible across the Eastern Shore, however, which may allow for wind chills to drop in the single digits. As such, a Cold Weather Advisory is possible Wed night into Thu morning mainly across the Eastern Shore. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 355 PM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Temperatures moderate by late week into the weekend. - Rain chances increase this weekend. Rain may end as snow Sunday night into Monday. - Colder weather arrives early next week behind a cold front. High pressure over the N gulf of Mexico Thu moves off the Southeast coast Fri. This will result in a brief warmup with temps increasing to the upper 30s N to mid 40s S Thu, low-mid 40s NE to around 50F SW Fri, upper 40s N to mid 50s S Sat, and mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE Sun. Lows also moderate with temps in the low-mid 20s inland (upper 20s to around 30F along the coast) Thu night, lower 30s (mid 30s along the coast) Fri night, and lower 30s NW to around 40F SE Sat night. The next chance for precip arrives this weekend as a cold front slowly moves through the area. Models continue to show the potential for several shortwaves moving through the area between Sat and the middle of next week along a slowly eastward moving baroclinic zone. There is high confidence that the first wave will be plain rain across the local area Sat into early Sun given mild temps. As such have PoPs increasing to ~50% everywhere Sat. However, confidence decreases Sun into Mon with respect to the second shortwave. Precip type will be largely determined by how far E the cold front gets before a potential second area of low pressure develops. For now, have kept NBM PoPs and temps which have rain Sun ending as snow Sun night into Mon (mainly across the NW). Will reiterate that confidence in any winter precip is low at this time. Otherwise, temps cool behind the cold front Sun night with lows in the mid 20s NW to lower 30s SE. Cooler temps are expected Mon with highs in the mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE Mon and lows in the upper teens NW to mid 20s SE Mon night. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 640 PM EST Monday... VFR prevails for the 00z/14 TAF period. Skies are generally clear with the exception of a few mid level clouds near RIC. Skies will be mostly clear through tomorrow afternoon, then cloud cover increases from N to S. Winds will be light overnight, then increase to 10-15kt out of the W/NW tomorrow morning through the evening. Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through late week. A dry cold front brings another period with elevated W-NW winds through Wednesday, with gusts generally highest across the MD eastern shore.. && .MARINE... As of 255 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front drops across the waters late tonight. SCAs have been issued for the northern waters from late tonight /early Tuesday morning through late Tuesday afternoon for NW winds behind the initial cold front. - Gale Warnings have been issued for the Bay and Atlantic coastal waters Tue night into Wed morning behind an Arctic cold front. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the rivers and Currituck Sound. Low pressure is tracking eastward across lower Ontario this afternoon, with the associated dry cold front extending south just west of the waters. Winds have increased slightly ahead of the front, with winds averaging W-SW winds 10-15 kt. Waves 1-2 ft, with 2-3 ft seas. Winds still expected to ramp up late this evening and overnight ahead of the initial cold frontal passage, with winds becoming W-NW post-frontal. Wind speeds will increase to ~20 kt across the northern bay/coastal waters N of Parramore Island, with ~15 kt winds expected farther south by early Tue AM. SCAs remain in effect for our far N bay zone N of Windmill Pt and ocean N of Parramore Island starting at 06z/1 AM EST Tue. W-NW winds then average 15-25 kt across the nrn bay/coastal waters Tue, with winds 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt, just under SCA criteria, for most of the waters until late Tue aftn. The secondary, stronger Arctic cold front crosses the waters Tuesday evening. This will allow the winds to turn NW and rapidly increase due to the strong CAA behind the front combined with a tightening pressure gradient as low pressure deepens off the New England coast. Still expect sustained winds to increase to near 30 kt (w/ frequent gusts up to 40 kt) across the bay and ocean, with wind speeds around 25 kt (with 30-35 kt gusts) on the rivers/Currituck Sound Tuesday night. Local wind probabilities have increased slightly, still showing a 60-80% chance of 34+ kt gusts across central and eastern portions of the bay, with lower probs on the west side of the bay. Probs for gale force gusts continue to be near 100% on the ocean. Could even see a few gusts to 45 kt north of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island Tue night given the strong CAA combined with 925mb winds potentially in the 40-45 kt range across the northern waters. Boundary layer wind fields are progged to be slightly lower across the southern waters, with stronger winds also likely shorter in duration. Nonetheless, still looking at high gale probs here over the southern waters also, mainly after midnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Also, will likely see occasional gusts up to 45 kt at elevated sites even across the lower bay and southern coastal waters. Given this, have upgraded to Gale Warning for the Atlantic coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay from 6p-6a Tue into Wed, with a slightly later start time south of the VA/NC border to account for the slightly slower CAA timing. In addition to the strong winds Tuesday night, light freezing spray is likely on the bay, rivers, and coastal waters N of Cape Charles. Seas remain 2-3 ft tonight (waves 1-2 ft), then slowly build to 4 to 7 feet by Tue night into Wed (4 to 5 feet waves in the bay). Waves/seas should subside below SCA criteria by Thursday morning. NW winds gradually subside Wednesday aftn through Thursday, although winds likely remain above SCA thresholds through much of Wed night. SCA flags can be added after current Gale headlines are no longer needed. The surface ridge builds in across the waters by Thu, with the slackening gradient allowing for winds to shift to W or SW while diminishing. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630- 650-652. Gale Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RHR/NB SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...AC MARINE...ERI/MAM