881 FXUS61 KAKQ 261913 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 313 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region today, allowing for scattered showers and storms, particularly this afternoon into early this evening. Drier and cooler weather returns for Sunday and Monday, followed by another warmup with above normal temperatures heading into the middle of next week. Daily scattered showers and storms also develop Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 310 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are expected today as a cold front moves across the area. - Locally strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this evening. - Breezy today with SW winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Loosely organized isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across the area this afternoon ahead of a deep-layer trough aloft and cold front at the sfc. There are also now some indications of more organized convection developing closer to the front itself in the far NW corner of our CWA (near the border of Louisa and Orange Counties). SPC mesoanalysis indicates up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE (w/ SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) across most of our VA and MD counties (lower NC) due to a seasonably moist airmass in place, with effective shear values 25-30 kt. As the front continues to slowly sag southward, this environment should be enough to support a threat for some strong to severe storms through the afternoon and evening. Expect this threat to increase as clusters push SE and develop outflow, with some upscale growth into bowing segments or lines possible over the next few hours. The primary threat continues to be damaging wind gusts of 50-65 mph. Could also see some small hail, but the large hail threat should be tempered by the linear storm mode and meager mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km. Showers/storms end from NW to SE, by 6-8 PM for most of the I-95 corridor and 8 PM-midnight for areas further E/SE. Temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 F this afternoon, with a few lower 80s also possible in areas that see the most sunshine. Cooling off in any shower or storm. Clearing late tonight behind the front as winds turn NNW and drier air filters in. The winds could also gust to 20- 25 mph for a time tonight as CAA develops. Becoming chilly with lows in the mid 40s for most of the area and upper 40s-lower 50s for far SE VA and coastal NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry Sunday through Tuesday with a warming trend beginning Monday. Dry and pleasant wx is expected Sunday through Tuesday, with below- normal temperatures initially, followed by a substantial warming trend toward midweek. Behind the cold front passage tonight, high pressure becomes centered over the Great Lakes and upper OH Valley Sunday as the upper trough axis shifts offshore and the flow aloft turns NW. Sunny skies Sunday with highs in the lower 70s W of the Chesapeake Bay and upper 60s on the Eastern Shore. Forecast lows Sunday night are in the mid 40s for most, except 50s at the immediate coast and on the VA Eastern Shore. However, should note that rather ideal radiational cooling conditions are likely to be present Sunday night with the high building over the area and temps could drop to around 40 F in some locations, which is closer to the statistical guidance. Not expecting any frost at this time, but will keep an eye on this. The high then moves over the area Monday and shifts offshore to our SE Tuesday. Thus, temperatures rebound into the mid 70s Monday with lows also a few degrees milder in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs in the low-mid 80s are then forecast Tuesday as the flow turns to the SW. Some increase in cloud cover is possible across the NW later Tuesday as a cold front initiates deep convection over the OH Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Warm weather is expected next week with highs well above normal most days. - Scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Ridging persists across the eastern CONUS through the middle of the week, with temperatures becoming increasingly warm. Above-normal highs in the mid-upper 80s are expected Wednesday through Friday. A cold front approaches the area Wednesday, but there is uncertainty on if it moves through or rather stays just N of the area. Either way, it should push well to the N Thursday before finally pushing through Friday. Scattered showers and storms are possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons/evenings with the front nearby, though only modest height falls suggest the coverage may be on the lower side. An area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes on Friday underneath a large trough, providing focus for additional thunderstorms. This activity could be more organized given strengthening flow aloft ahead of the trough. Cooling/drying off behind the cold front next weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday... A cold front is approaching the area this afternoon. Ahead of the front, widely scattered showers with some embedded thunder have developed over the Piedmont. A few lingering showers are also passing through the MD Eastern Shore near SBY. The general thinking is these showers/storms will gradually intensify through the afternoon while dropping southeast through the evening hours. Have enough confidence to introduce 2-3 hr TEMPO groups in the 20z-03z timeframe (earliest N and W and latest S and E) at all of the terminals for reduced VSBY and gusty winds from storms. Localized higher wind gusts (40+ kt) are also possible, along with small hail. Outside of storms, 10-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25-30 kt expected this afternoon. Winds become NNW behind the front with a brief period of gusty winds likely overnight. Skies also clear late tonight through Sunday. Outlook: VFR expected Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by the middle of next week with unsettled weather returning from mid to late week. && .MARINE... As of 240 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are ongoing across most of the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms into this evening could necessitate SMWs. - Winds become NNW at around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt from N to S starting late this evening, continuing through tonight into early Sunday behind the cold front. - SCAs are already in effect for most zones, and will go into effect for remaining zones starting this evening and continuing through Sunday. - Calmer conditions return Sunday night into the first half of next week. Deepening low pressure is currently moving into northern New England, with the trailing cold front now along the spine Appalachians, and forecast to push east of the mountains shortly. Elevated SW winds have prevailed since this morning, and despite an expected lull right out ahead of the cold front early this evening, have put all zones but the Rappahannock River and the coastal waters S of Parramore Island in effect given frequent gusts to around 25 kt this aftn. SCAs run through Sunday and continue for the remainder of the waters for the post- frontal winds starting tonight. Tstms are possible into the evening along and just ahead of the front, which could necessitate SMWs. The front is forecast to see pressure rises on the order of 7-9mb/6 hr later this evening, along with strong CAA for late April with 925mb temps dropping to around 2C north and ~6C south. Winds become NNW following the FROPA and are still expected to average 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt between about midnight and 7 AM Sunday morning. While occasional low- end gale gusts are possible (especially on the bay at elevated terminals), not expecting these to be frequent enough (or persist long enough) to warrant any Gale headlines. The guidance has remained relatively consistent over the past 24-36 hours with the latest 12z/26 CAMs (ARW/FV3/HRRR/NAMNest) suggesting solid SCA conditions with occasional 35 kt gusts. Local wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts are in the 20-30% range north and 10% or less S of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, likely dropping to ~15 kt by late aftn. While there will be an additional weak push of CAA Sunday night, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds remaining aob 15%. Therefore, did not extend the SCAs past 4-7 PM Sunday. Much lighter winds are expected on Mon/Tue as high pressure builds over the waters. SCAs potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty is high at this time range. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 2-3 ft and seas of 3-4 ft S/4-5 ft N prevail into the evening, building to 4-6 ft by late tonight behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves on the bay. Waves/seas remain around SCA criteria on Sunday before dropping below criteria Sunday evening. Generally expected 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves Monday-Tuesday, then increasing into Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632>634- 636>638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM/SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...RMM/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...ERI/LKB