028 FXUS61 KLWX 111749 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 149 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead through Thursday before moving offshore Friday. Above normal temperatures are expected along with an increasing trend in humidity. A cold front will slowly pass through the area this weekend before stalling out nearby early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast remains on track for today, with very little/no change in the latest forecast package. Dry weather will continue under the influence of high pressure, with high temperatures rising another couple of degrees into the mid to upper 80s (70s in the mountains). In this post-frontal airmass, dew points remain lower today compared to later in the week, generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. These dry conditions will continue into tonight as the area of high pressure moves overhead and eventually starts to push to our east. This will lead to cool conditions overnight with light winds and dry air. Low temps will be in the upper 50s in the valleys and 60s for most other areas. Locations along the waters could even stay around 70 overnight. A few high clouds will move into the area in a zonal flow aloft. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure begin to slowly move offshore Thursday while weak ridging builds overhead. Subsidence with the weak ridging along with sunshine will allow for a hotter afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most areas. Humidity will creep up a bit, but remain on the lower side with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Heat indices will top off in the lower to middle 90s near and east of 95 into central Virginia with 80s to near 90 elsewhere. More dry conditions are expected Thursday night, but it will be several degrees warmer with lows only dropping into the mid/upper 60s to mid 70s (low to mid 60s in the high elevation valleys). A closed upper-low will slowly drift through the Plains and into the Midwest Friday through Friday night while high pressure builds over the Atlantic. The south to southwest flow in the low-levels will increase and this will advect in plenty of moisture from the Gulf Coast states. At the same time a cold front will remain to our north, but a pre-frontal surface trough/weak low pressure is likely to build over the Potomac Highlands. The increased lift and instability will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Have increased the forecast to likely POPs for Friday as a result. Warm and humid conditions will persist Friday night with some fog possible, especially in areas where it rained that evening. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper-level low will shear apart as it approaches the area Saturday before most likely passing through the area Sunday. High pressure will build off the New England coast behind this system and it will likely send a backdoor boundary through our area. Timing is uncertain, but it is most likely to pass through Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of the boundary, warm and humid conditions will persist, and plenty of moisture will continue to stream into the area. Latest EPS shows PWATS around 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal. The moisture combined with instability on the warm side of the boundary will likely bring showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each day. With a relatively light flow, heavy rain combined with already saturated soil may result in instances of flooding. Will continue to monitor details as it gets closer. Cooler marine air may cause more stability for Monday and Tuesday behind the backdoor boundary. However, it will likely remain close enough for unsettled conditions to persist. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through Thursday night along with light winds. Those light winds out of the WNW today will gradually turn out of the S to SSW by Thursday as high pressure gradually pushes offshore. Moisture will return Friday and a few showers and thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon and evening. More showers and thunderstorms are likely for Saturday and Sunday as moisture continues to stream into the area. Low clouds and possible fog may result in subVFR conditions during the mornings as well, especially in areas that receive any rainfall. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure will build overhead through Thursday, bringing dry conditions and light winds. WNW winds today will turn out of the S to SSW on Thursday, but all generally around 10 kts or less. A southerly flow will increase for Friday into the weekend. This will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds may approach SCA criteria for portions of the waters, but confidence is low. Otherwise, a daily threat exists for SMWs due to thunderstorm winds, outside of any synoptic winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The more sensitive tidal sites could continue to hit action stage during the higher of the 2 high tide cycles the next couple of days. But overall, anomalies will not jump substantially in the coming days. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...CJL SHORT TERM...BJL/CJL LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/CJL MARINE...BJL/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/CJL