816 FXUS61 KAKQ 091737 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 137 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier conditions return today. A cold front moves across the area on Tuesday, bringing scattered showers and storms. Dry and warm weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with unsettled weather returning Friday into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 135 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon with scattered showers and storms late tonight. - Highs today in the 80s to around 90F. A backdoor cold front moved through this morning and has since stalled near the I-64 corridor. Winds south of the front were S/SW with winds north of the front E/SE. This front is expected to slowly lift north this afternoon. The stratus north of the front continues to clear with SCT CU taking their place. As such, expect partly sunny skies to continue through the afternoon with highs in the mid 80s north to around 90F south. Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon across the area with ample 3CAPE and high DCAPE along with LCLs ranging from 750m north of the front to 1500m across the southern Piedmont. Shear remains modest with bulk shear of 20-30 kt. However, some pockets of 35 kt are possible later this afternoon. However, upper level forcing is lacking with the outer edge of a shortwave just beginning to enter the region by around 6 PM, largely waiting until overnight to move through. As such, only a few isolated showers/storms are possible this afternoon mainly along the remnant cold front which may provide just enough lift for convection to form (15-30% PoPs). However, without upper level support, updrafts will likely struggle (at least initially). Nevertheless, given the backed winds north of the front and ample instability, a few strong to potentially severe storms are possible with some potentially weakly rotating. Therefore, can`t rule out a strong to severe wind gust. SPC has maintained a general thunder risk across most of the region apart from a Marginal (level 1/5) risk across portions of NE NC mainly for tonight`s convection. Additionally, WPC has placed the entire area under a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall due largely to the scattered showers/storms moving through tonight. However, any isolated showers/storms that form this afternoon may produce locally heavy rain given slow storm motions. PoPs increase to 20-50% late tonight into early Tue morning with the highest PoPs across SE VA/NE NC. Lows tonight remain mild around 70F given the widespread cloud cover and scattered showers/storms. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather returns on Tuesday with increased chances for showers and storms. - A cold front finally drops south of the area with drier conditions expected Wednesday. The aforementioned upper trough axis will move through the region on Tuesday, bringing the chance for showers and storms back to the area. Overnight showers and few storms will continue Tuesday morning with widespread cloud cover lending some uncertainty to degree of destabilization Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it appears the greatest chance for appreciable insolation will be across the eastern half of the area. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the entire area Tuesday. Strong to locally severe wind gusts are the main threat, especially in areas that see some breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures will also depend heavily on how much cloud cover is present across the area. High temps generally in the low to mid 80s are forecast across the region. Some lingering showers and storms are possible across far SE VA into NE NC after sunset but these should dissipate/move offshore by midnight or so. Some drier air begins to filter into the area behind the weak surface front. Low temps range from around 60 degrees NW to the upper 60s or low 70s SE. High pressure builds into the area on Wednesday, keeping the area mostly dry. A few showers are possible for NE NC but confidence is low so will limit PoPs to 30% or less. Pleasant Wednesday afternoon for most of the area with dew points falling into the upper 50s to low 60s and temps generally in the mid 80s. Overnight lows in the 60s with mostly clear skies expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Very warm but remaining dry Thursday. - Warm with low shower and storm chances returning Friday afternoon with greater coverage expected Saturday and Sunday. Heights aloft build on Thursday, leading to a dry forecast with high temps climbing into the low 90s for most of the area. Overnight low temps generally in the mid to upper 60s. Heights begin to decrease on Friday ahead of the next trough and surface reflection. PoPs looks to remain in the chance category through early Saturday. Flow aloft become WNW by Saturday afternoon with more widespread showers and storms expected. Enhanced flow aloft may allow for more storm organization by Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon temps will be held in check somewhat by the expected increased cloud cover. Highs generally in the mid 80s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Monday... Mix of flying conditions across the terminals this morning with RIC, PHF, ORF, and ECG seeing VFR while areas north of Richmond have IFR conditions. SBY has been LIFR most of the night and will continue to see IFR or lower through mid morning. Expect VFR at all terminals by this afternoon. Winds are tricky today with a weak boundary lifting north. Leaned heavily on VRB to cover the changes as most spots will be close to 5 kt. By late afternoon, SW winds will prevail over most of the area with SE winds remaining in place for SBY. Very low chance for showers and storms today but chances increase this evening and especially tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions likely return at SBY this evening into tonight. Outlook: Additional scattered showers and storms move through on Tue with flight restrictions possible. && .MARINE... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through the week. A frontal boundary lingers over the waters early this morning with easterly winds of 5-10 kt north and SW winds of 5-15 kt over the central/srn waters. Seas are 2-3 ft and convection has largely dissipated. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM for the MD coastal waters, as KOXB has been reporting 1/2-1SM VSBYs for the past few hrs. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through the week. Variable winds aob 10 kt are forecast today but winds will become SSW and increase to ~15 kt this evening/tonight as a weak area of low pressure approaches from the west. Will likely see gusts to 20 kt, but not expecting these to be frequent enough to warrant SCAs. Local wind probabilities for sustained 18 kt winds are 10-20% on the bay tonight. SW winds around 15 kt continue on Tuesday, but the highest winds will be over the rivers and near the land-water interface due to daytime mixing over adjacent land areas. Again, a few 20 kt gusts are likely during the day. Tstm chances return tonight and especially Tuesday as the frontal boundary likely pushes south of the waters. A few SMWs will likely be needed Tuesday aftn/evening. High pressure returns by midweek with winds aob 10 kt expected. Seas remain 2-3 ft today, but build to 3-4 ft late tonight- Tue. Waves are expected to be 1-3 ft through the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...AJB/ERI