222 FXUS61 KBTV 261947 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 347 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A bout of winter weather for some is expected late tonight into Sunday as a strong upper level system tracks over the region. A cold rain will mix with snow at times into lower elevations while snow falls in the mountains, but as clouds and precipitation shifts eastward more seasonable air will quickly return. The next chance for showers with possible thunderstorms will come Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a potent cold front, then another round of precipitation returns late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 347 PM EDT Saturday...A vigorous upper level low is digging across southeastern Ontario this afternoon. In combination with a surface low pressure tracking across Vermont, numerous showers are present amidst an axis of marginal instability and shear. This scenario leads to a low chance of lightning within a cell or two through early evening, especially across south central Vermont. Generally the magnitude of mixed layer CAPE looks too low for thunderstorms with cloud tops limited by poor mid-level lapse rates. Showers tonight will become more scattered but persist especially in northern Vermont during the evening and the first part of the night, and then more focused in northern New York overnight as steady precipitation begins to pinwheel in on the backside of the upper level low. Much colder air aloft will surge in from the west this evening over northern New York and then Vermont overnight, with the "warmest" air across northeastern Vermont where the cold air takes longest to arrive. As low level convergence increases amidst cold air aloft with the upper level low crossing the region, precipitation should blossom tomorrow morning over northern Vermont. Periods of heavier precipitation are favored during the mid morning to early afternoon period, which will support sharply lowering snow levels from mountain summits down to mid-slopes and perhaps intermittently the valley floors during this timeframe. Have moved the forecast towards the idea of rain with a chance of snow for across Vermont generally above 1000 feet, with a slight chance of snow in the lowest elevations. A slushy coating of snow at mid-slopes seems reasonable primarily on grassy surfaces, while up to several inches are possible at the highest summits. No travel concerns exists given mild temperatures and lack of very intense precipitation that could overcome the temperature limitation with regards to accumulations on roads. On the western periphery of the system, skies will become sunny resulting in a huge contrast in weather in our region by mid- afternoon. Mild, albeit breezy conditions, will be common in western portions of northern New York where temperatures could reach the low 60s; meanwhile, snow will be falling in portions of northern Vermont. The incoming milder air will continue moving to the east through the rest of the period, resulting in a quick drying trend and seasonable temperatures Sunday night, only dipping back into the upper 30s to mid 40s in most locations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Remnant shower activity in our eastern zones Sunday night will give way to clearing skies as the low pressure moves from the Gulf of Maine out into the Atlantic. The drier conditions and sunny skies Monday will allow temperatures to warm to near 70F for the Champlain and upper Connecticut valleys, while the highest elevations along the Greens and ADK will be 10 degrees cooler. We continued to trend the RH values lower in an attempt to come in line with recent bias corrections. Following today`s wetting rain along with lower wind speeds on Monday, we don`t anticipate any fire weather concerns. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Temperatures will continue to climb on Tuesday, with the warmest locations threatening to reach 80F before a cold front sweeps through Tuesday evening. The latest guidance slightly increases our threat of thunderstorms along the front. The primary concern remains the Saint Lawrence Valley where the strongest axis of CAPE should be present. As the front moves eastward, there is a rather small time frame for the development of TSRA. A warming trend begins on Wednesday as high pressure builds overhead. Wednesday will feature highs in the mid 50s in northern Vermont and New York, with warmer temperatures in southern Vermont. The tight pressure gradient behind the front will leave us with strong, gusty winds. Thursday and Friday will continue the warming trend, with temperatures reaching the upper 60s by Friday. The next cold front is currently forecast for Friday night into Saturday, where we are showing POPs in excess of 70 percent. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...Low pressure is currently centered over the region producing light wind fields and varied ceilings, except persistently low cloud bases at MSS. Numerous showers are moving through northern New York ahead of a potent upper level low that will cross the region tonight into Sunday morning. These could produce temporary low visibilities under the heavier showers, but think prevailing MVFR/IFR will be mostly driven off of ceilings. Shower chances will continue past 00Z, although between 06Z and 12Z a lull in precipitation is expected at most terminals before widespread rain resumes. Winds will increase, remaining mainly in the 5 to 10 knot range and greatest at southern terminals, especially from 22Z to 00Z. These winds will tend to shift westerly, or locally northerly at BTV. Wind direction will become more uniformly northwesterly by 12Z as the region sits on the southwestern periphery of departing low pressure. A few gusts to near 20 knots will be possible, but frequent gusts are unlikely through this period. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Langbauer LONG TERM...Langbauer AVIATION...Kutikoff