758 FXUS61 KBTV 080641 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 241 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving front will continue to push across the region, bringing cooler temperatures and additional changes for showers today. The weather turns quieter later this week, with slightly above average temperatures and occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 241 AM EDT Tuesday...Cloud and dreary conditions observed across much of the region this morning, with few lingering showers this morning as a slow moving frontal boundary continues to progress across the region towards southern New England. Guidance continues to support the idea that the main axis of precipitation will be across southern New England for today, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible throughout the day tomorrow across the southern portions of the forecast area. Temperatures will be cooler compared to previous days, with high temperatures generally climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Drier conditions will begin to move in behind the front, with decreasing cloud cover towards the afternoon. OVernight low temperatures will be fairly seasonably, dropping into the upper 50s and 60s. Another fairly seasonable day is expected for Wednesday, with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s. The first portion of the day should be relatively dry, with increasing shower chances towards the afternoon, although there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding where exactly any showers will develop. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 241 AM EDT Tuesday...Shower chances will continue to increase overnight Wednesday into the day Thursday as shortwave boundary moves into the region, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms as it progresses through the region. Thursday is looking to have the greatest chances for precipitation this week, with NBM probabilities show about a 50% chance of rainfall amounts of 0.25 inches or greater across much of the region. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to the overall evolution of the shortwave and how all of the ingredients come together for the possibility for more organized convection so continue to monitor the forecast as we get closer. High temperatures will continue to be seasonable, in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 241 AM EDT Tuesday...Seasonal temperatures and occasional chances for showers are expected for the later half of the week as the region remains in westerly flow aloft with several embedded shortwaves and boundaries passing through, although there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the overall timing of these features. While several periods of showers will be possible, it doesn`t look like any day will be a complete wash out at this time. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Persistence is generally the forecast for the overnight hours with most sites already IFR/LIFR and others trending in that direction by 09Z. Conditions won`t likely improve until after sunrise, and for some sites like KBTV, IFR or lower will likely hold on until closer to noon when a low level inversion finally breaks. Thereafter, conditions should rapidly improve to MVFR/VFR and eventually VFR by mid afternoon. Winds through the period will be mainly NNE less than 10 kts, trending light and variable towards 00Z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Lahiff