053 FXUS61 KBTV 091740 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain showers will be possible this morning, mainly over northern New York and southern Vermont. Breezy south winds will help clear out the worst of the wildfire smoke by this afternoon. Better chances for more widespread showers arrive this evening and continue through Tuesday as a couple of rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms cross the region from west to east. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1029 AM EDT Monday...The light rain showers have held together a little more than anticipated this morning so increased PoPs a little more for the rest of the morning and the early afternoon. Still expect rainfall amounts to be light with little in the way of impact. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape so no significant changes were needed with this update. Previous discussion...Light rain showers will continue to lift northeastward through the morning hours in response to warm air advection ahead of low pressure shifting into the Great Lakes. This activity has been eroding as it encounters high pressure over our region, and expect this trend will continue through much of the day today. Still, occasional light rain will be possible for a good part of the day, mainly in northern NY and perhaps south central VT; northeast VT has the best chances of staying dry. South winds will be a little on the breezy side today, and this should help to finally scour out the wildfire smoke. Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Precipitation chances will increase late today and especially overnight tonight into Tuesday as a warm front pushes across the area, quickly followed by a cold front. Deep moisture will spread northward on a strong S/SW jet, and PWATs will surge to around 1.50 inch as we briefly get into the warm sector. The result will be a couple of rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms. The first, associated with the warm front, will move into the St Lawrence Valley late today and trek eastward through Monday morning. Timing is not optimal for strong convection as it`ll be after peak heating, but there will be some minimal elevated instability with this initial band of showers, so would expect at least a few rumbles of thunder. In spite of the high PWATs, the best moisture will remain well to our south, and expect there will enough flow to allow showers to make good eastward progress, limiting the threat of training or slow-moving cells. So while some briefly heavy rain may occur, mainly in the St Lawrence Valley given more favorable timing, flooding is not anticipated. This first round of showers will cross NY/VT and should exit into NH by mid/late afternoon Tuesday, with a short break thereafter. However, another line of showers and possible thunderstorms will form along the cold front. This band will be narrower than the first. Note that some of the CAM guidance is indicating there will be enough time between the two rounds of showers that the atmosphere could recover enough for SB CAPE values of 500+ J/kg. Current thinking is that this is a bit overdone, though it`ll depend on how quickly the first band of showers progresses; models still disagree on exact timing. Regardless, expect there could be thunder with the second line of showers as well, along with some brief heavy downpours. Again, no flooding is expected. Tuesday`s highs will be similar to today, in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 316 AM EDT Monday...A broken line of showers, with perhaps a thunderstorm, will be exiting eastern Vermont by midnight, with otherwise dry conditions and clearing skies under westerly flow behind a weak cold front. Little air mass change will occur other than to filter in drier air. With plenty of flow aloft and lowering dew points, do not anticipate fog formation despite the likely wet conditions from the day`s rain. Most likely low temperatures will be in the 50s for most locations, although if the boundary layer stays mixed throughout the night some of the wider valleys could stay in the 60s. A stronger surface cold front will approach the area from the northwest on Wednesday, helping to turn low level flow back to the south. With plentiful dry air in place, shower chances look low but non-zero as some weak upper level spin rotates through the long wave trough overhead; as such, have indicated a bit higher chances/isolated showers in the mountains and far northern portions of the region. Otherwise, it should be a seasonably warm and mostly sunny day. Upstream concentrations of smoke are anticipated to be less significant than this past week, but cannot rule out possibility of haze coming in from the west given the weather pattern. For much of the region it will probably be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The aforementioned cold front may spark a brief period of rain Wednesday night or early Thursday, with greatest chances again towards northernmost Vermont and New York. Aside from that, largely dry and slightly cooler than normal weather could persist through the entire long term period as an anomalously strong area of high pressure builds in from the northwest. Friday in particular looks quiet refreshing with northerly flow filtering in unseasonably dry air. The ridging could block a frontal boundary that will be positioned over the Midwest late in the week with a wave or waves of lower pressure moving eastward along it. As of 316 AM EDT Monday. Enough global ensemble members, and consistent with some deterministic model runs, do bring measurable rain into northern New York and Vermont at times throughout the weekend to have about 20- 35% chance of rain, with greatest chances in the southern Greens. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR ceilings should continue for the rest of the day. There may be a few light showers but they should not significantly reduce visibilities. An area of showers, potentially with a couple embedded thunderstorms, will make its way across the region from west to east tonight into tomorrow. It will reach MSS this evening but it will progress slowly, so it will not reach the Vermont terminals until tomorrow morning. This line could briefly reduce visibilities to MVFR or even IFR, but a majority of the rain should be too light to cause significant visibility reductions. Ceilings will lower a bit tonight, and they will likely go to MVFR in places. MPV could see IFR ceilings late tonight and into the day tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally be southerly. Gusts between 10-25 KTs will be intermittent today, before winds should drop below 10 KTs tonight. One thing to note is that with smoke from wildfires already around, rain may reduce visibilities more than normal. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Isolated SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Myskowski