603 FXUS61 KBTV 050600 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A mild night is anticipated tonight with temperatures holding in the upper 50s to upper 60s. A cold front will produce scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with a few stronger storms capable of small hail, gusty winds and brief heavy down pours. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...Forecast for tonight is in largely good shape. Some temperatures are remaining steady and rather mild in the low to mid 70s with continued boundary layer mixing, while most locations have had winds calm and have cooled steadily with temperatures dipping into the low to mid 60s. Previous Discussion...Surface and upper level ridges slide east of our region overnight. Southwesterly flow will continue, tonight will feature quiet weather with very mild and humid conditions likely, especially urban areas in wider valleys. Lows will be in the upper 50s to near 70F. Scattered strong to possibly isolated severe storms are expected on Thursday afternoon associated with approaching upper level shortwave energy and weakening surface cold front. Still looks like we`ll have moderate instability and modest deep layer shear and forcing. Latest 12z HREF shows an axis of surface based CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0 to 6 km shear of 20 to 30 knots across our forecast ahead of approaching cold front. The unidirectional wind profiles suggest individual linear line segments or multi-linear clusters as the primary convective mode. Thursday will be much more humid with dewpoints well into the 60s. Maximum temperatures ahead of the cold front will peak in the upper 80s across Vermont, cooler in Northern New York closer to the upper 70s. Following sunset Thursday evening showers will end with loss of daytime heating and surface based instability. Minimum temperatures Thursday night will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...Cold front which crossed the area on Thursday will end up stationary to our south and become a focus for showers as upper level shortwaves cross our area. Additional showers are expected both Friday and Friday night. Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80, and minimum temperatures will dip into the lower 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Still hoping that models will fall into better agreement as we get closer to Saturday. Position of the surface boundary will dictate track of low pressure system and where the heaviest rainfall will potentially set up. Continuing to carry likely PoPs for our region, and considering possibility for over an inch of rain somewhere in our forecast area. If the boundary lands north of our area we could anticipate some thunderstorm development also, but this remains unclear at this time. An axis of of higher PWATs around 1.25 to 1.5 is nearby, so the potential for localized heavy rainfall is still possible. Sunday is looking drier with maybe just a few lingering showers, as temperatures remain steady in the 70s. Mid/upper level trough deepens across the central Great Lakes for early next week, which result in an unsettled pattern for our forecast area. A series of shortwaves and a surface boundary will swing across resulting in daily chances of showers/storms with temps near normal for early June. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions will continue through the period, aside from any direct hits from isolated to scattered convection expected during the daytime hours, especially 18Z to 22Z. Coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be limited, especially in New York with earlier push of a surface cold front. MPV and RUT have somewhat greater chances of thunderstorms, but in this time range VCSH is used to denote the possible activity. There is also a low chance (30% or less) of ceilings lowering below 3000 feet between 12 and 18Z at MSS. South-southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, or light/terrain driven, will turn northwesterly behind the cold front in the 14Z to 17Z period at MSS and SLK, 18Z to 20Z period in the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont, and towards 22-23Z at RUT. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Danzig/Kutikoff