651 FXUS61 KBTV 170217 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1017 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upslope snow showers will continue through tonight, producing accumulating snow in western portions of the Adirondacks and in the vicinity of the Green Mountains. More seasonable and dry conditions will return Thursday before another system brings more widespread rain chances over the weekend. Mild and unsettled weather continues early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1015 PM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes needed with late evening update. Crnt radar and sfc obs indicate areal coverage of precip conts to decrease, while drier air advects into our region on northwest flow. Did bump temps up several degrees due to clouds and winds overnight, especially CPV where locally lows wl hold in the mid 30s. Rest of fcst in good shape. Previous discussion below: A shortwave, associated with a broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of St. Lawrence, will continue to bring snow shower chances primarily to the westerly upslope regions of the Adirondacks and Greens tonight. Observations show snow showers associated with the west/northwest flow tracking across the northern Adirondacks into the High Peaks with a broad area of light to moderate snow extending south from Highgate, Vermont into Rutland County. In Rutland, where temperatures are in the upper upper 30s, precipitation is falling as rain, with snow showers elsewhere as wet-bulbing cools the columns. Winds under these snow showers will remain breezy with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Even though Froude numbers are supercritical, snow showers have blossomed in the Champlain Valley, and have remained for the last several hours. Under this northwest flow it is not uncommon to see this occur, and as the shortwave traverses the North County, it should remain for a few more hours. Accumulations in the valleys will be light across the Adirondacks and Greens with surface and road temperatures generally above freezing. In the higher elevations additional accumulations between 1 and 3 inches is expected, with higher amounts still possible near Jay Peak and the northern Greens. Even though it is mid-April, snow aggregates will be moderately fluffy with ratios near 15:1. Where snow is falling temperatures are in the low to mid-30s, and near 40 in southern Vermont. Temperatures will be 10 degrees below average tonight as strong caa continues in behind the shortwave tonight. Snow showers should become more confined to the upslope favored regions and the Northeast Kingdom overnight, tapering off everywhere by early tomorrow. No measurable snow is expected overnight. High pressure will build in for Thursday with clearing skies and drier conditions. As the system departs, relative humidities tomorrow will plummet into the 25-35% range with breezy conditions up to 25 mph gusts across the Champlain and lower Connecticut valleys. Even with the precipitation today, lower QPF, low RH, and breezy conditions, could yield isolated fire weather concerns for the Champlain and Connecticut Valleys. Temperatures tomorrow will be more milder than today with values in the mid 40s to low 50s, with hopes that this wintry weather finally becomes a distant memory. By Thursday night, temperatures will be similar to tonight with strong raditional cooling with values in the mid 20s to low 30s, with clouds building in the St. Lawrence Valley. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 337 PM EDT Wednesday...The ridge crest will shift east during the day Friday, and the pressure gradient will then tighten as a low pressure system lifts northeastward out of the central US. Southerly winds will consequently increase through the day Friday, gusting to the 15 to 25 mph range locally in the Champlain Valley where flow will be funneled through topography. Rain associated with the system will begin over northern NY late in the day on Friday, spreading eastward into VT during the evening hours. Rain showers will continue through the night, though showers will be scattered in nature and there will be breaks in precipitation. Continuing to note up to 500 J/kg MUCAPE Friday night, so have kept mention of some slight chance thunderstorms in the forecast. Severe weather is not expected overnight, though some areas may hear some rumbles of thunder as a few embedded thunderstorms roll through. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 337 PM EDT Wednesday...Saturday and Saturday night will see more rain showers with some dry breaks interspersed, so the first part of the weekend will not be a washout despite the showery pattern. There is some marginal SBCAPE present during the day on Saturday, so have continued with mention of some slight chance thunder especially in portions of norther NY and northwestern VT. Winds will be breezy on Saturday, especially in any convective showers/thunderstorms when some gusts 25 to 35 mph are possible. The system`s cold front will sink through Saturday night into Sunday, but there is some spread in models in just how quickly the dry air pushes in and precip comes to an end. Have stayed close to the National Blend of Models for the precipitation forecast in this timeframe, which reduced PoP chances to the 5 to 30 percent range Saturday night into Sunday morning. Storm total QPF for the event will range from just a few hundredths of an inch in southern Vermont to around a half inch in the Saint Lawrence Valley. There will be some topographical impacts on the distribution of the QPF, with some rain shadowing over the Champlain Valley and some enhanced QPF over topography. By midday Sunday, enough dry air will push down on the eastern periphery of an anticyclone over western Quebec to put an end to any residual showers. Post-frontal winds will remain breezy from the northwest and some breaks in the clouds will allow for periods of sunshine by the afternoon. Highs will range through the 50s. The brief break in showers will be relatively short-lived, as the synoptic scale pattern remains conducive for weather systems tracking northeastward through our forecast area. The next system in the train will arrive in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe as another round of scattered rain showers. Despite the overall active pattern, no concerns for any hazardous weather in the long term. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...The general theme for the next twelve hours will be improvement in flight category. Showers are expected to decrease in coverage and eventually end by about 06Z-12Z Thursday. Ceilings will also gradually lift to above 3000 feet above ground level by around 06Z-15Z Thursday, with MVFR ceilings lingering the longest at SLK and potentially EFK. In terms of visibilities lower than 3 miles and ceilings below 1000 feet, SLK and MPV could have a couple more hours of up and down through 03Z. After that, these sites should see some improvement with the others. Westerly to northwesterly winds with gusts 15-25 knots are expected to continue on and off into the afternoon Thursday. There may also be some brief LLWS at EFK before the low level jet pulls away from the forecast area around 03Z. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Danzig NEAR TERM...Danzig/Taber SHORT TERM...Duell LONG TERM...Duell AVIATION...Storm