330 FXUS61 KBTV 042008 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY 408 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A mild night is anticipated tonight with temperatures holding in the upper 50s to upper 60s. A cold front will produce scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with a few stronger storms capable of small hail, gusty winds and brief heavy down pours. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...Surface and upper level ridges slide east of our region overnight. Southwesterly flow will continue, tonight will feature quiet weather with very mild and humid conditions likely, especially urban areas in wider valleys. Lows will be in the upper 50s to near 70F. Scattered strong to possibly isolated severe storms are expected on Thursday afternoon associated with approaching upper level shortwave energy and weakening surface cold front. Still looks like we`ll have moderate instability and modest deep layer shear and forcing. Latest 12z HREF shows an axis of surface based CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0 to 6 km shear of 20 to 30 knots across our forecast ahead of approaching cold front. The unidirectional wind profiles suggest individual linear line segments or multi-linear clusters as the primary convective mode. Thursday will be much more humid with dewpoints well into the 60s. Maximum temperatures ahead of the cold front will peak in the upper 80s across Vermont, cooler in Northern New York closer to the upper 70s. Following sunset Thursday evening showers will end with loss of daytime heating and surface based instability. Minimum temperatures Thursday night will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...Cold front which crossed the area on Thursday will end up stationary to our south and become a focus for showers as upper level shortwaves cross our area. Additional showers are expected both Friday and Friday night. Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80, and minimum temperatures will dip into the lower 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Still hoping that models will fall into better agreement as we get closer to Saturday. Position of the surface boundary will dictate track of low pressure system and where the heaviest rainfall will potentially set up. Continuing to carry likely PoPs for our region, and considering possibility for over an inch of rain somewhere in our forecast area. If the boundary lands north of our area we could anticipate some thunderstorm development also, but this remains unclear at this time. An axis of of higher PWATs around 1.25 to 1.5 is nearby, so the potential for localized heavy rainfall is still possible. Sunday is looking drier with maybe just a few lingering showers, as temperatures remain steady in the 70s. Mid/upper level trough deepens across the central Great Lakes for early next week, which result in an unsettled pattern for our forecast area. A series of shortwaves and a surface boundary will swing across resulting in daily chances of showers/storms with temps near normal for early June. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18z Thursday...High confidence of VFR for all 7 terminals for the next 12 to 24 hours. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with localized gusts 20 to 25 knots this afternoon. These winds will continue through late afternoon before decreasing toward sunset at 5 to 10 knots. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Neiles