178 FXUS61 KBTV 061952 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 352 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across the area associated with a surface warm front. Areas of showers will continue through early Saturday, with a decreasing chance of rain in the afternoon. Generally seasonable weather is expected next week, and an unsettled pattern should lead to more chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 351 PM EDT Friday...Currently monitoring showers and embedded thunderstorms moving across the area for potentially severe winds and/or flooding rains. The wet weather, with reduced chances for heavy rainfall, will linger overnight into Saturday morning before the low pressure system moves to our east and drags a weak cold front through the area. A secondary cold front will follow Saturday afternoon. It will have limited moisture to work with as drier air will have worked in behind the initial front. As such, risk of additional thunderstorms, and coverage of showers, will be low. Greatest chances of these isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm will be in north central and eastern Vermont. Most locations will be dry Saturday afternoon, and temperatures should warm nicely as blue skies become common from west to east with falling humidity levels. Ridge of surface high pressure will build into our region from the north on Saturday night and drier weather returns. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 351 PM EDT Friday...The second half of the weekend should be mostly dry as ridging briefly builds over the region. We should start off with ample sunshine, but some fair weather cumulus could bubble up in the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. Highs will be seasonable, in the 70s pretty much areawide. Rain chances increase overnight Sunday night as high pressure shifts exits to the east, making way for another frontal system. Increasing moisture and clouds will keep lows in the 50s in most spots, with perhaps some upper 40s in the Northeast Kingdom. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 351 PM EDT Friday...An upper level trough will slowly move into the region from the west during the week and it will push a few fronts through as it progresses eastward. These fronts will be accompanied by showers and the chance of a few thunderstorms. However, none of the fronts look like they will provide significant severe weather at this point, though we will continue to watch them. The initial front on Tuesday will provide the best chance for heavy rain. PWATs look to be in the 1.0-1.5 range and there will be relatively high warm cloud depths. The one thing to watch is the speed of the frontal passage. Some guidance delays it as they try to form a secondary low to the south and train some of the rain over the same areas for much of the day Tuesday, but most sends it through relatively quickly. Even if the slower solutions verify, it does not look like there would be a significant flood threat, but the region is in a marginal ERO for this case. The subsequent fronts will have much less moisture to work with and look to be more progressive. Overall, it will be a relatively seasonable stretch with regards to temperatures and there will be lots of shower chances, though likely no full day washouts. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...MSS continues to be impacted by some wildfire smoke, 4SM with haze ongoing. Light north winds continue across the area, and showers approach from the southwest. Have mainly used Prob 30s for the precipitation which will impact most terminals later this afternoon into the evening. Thunderstorm potential limited to mainly RUT, although rain showers could lower visibilities at times across SLK-BTV- MPV. Greatest thunderstorm potential at RUT remains primarily after 20Z, and peaking between 21 and 23Z, before chances decrease. Any direct hits would result in IFR visibilities, gusty winds, and possible small hail. Ceilings after 00Z, especially after 03Z, will trend MVFR especially where rain is more likely to occur today, at MPV and RUT, and possibly EFK. Additional showers may occur overnight, especially again at the southern terminals. Outlook... Friday night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Neiles