076 FXUS61 KBTV 050809 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 409 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will produce scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms today, with a few stronger storms capable of small hail, gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. More wet weather is expected beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday. Generally seasonable weather is expected next week, and an unsettled pattern should lead to more chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 409 AM EDT Thursday...A narrow zone with showers and thunderstorms largely on the cold side of a surface front is currently draped just west of the region. Out ahead of it, with the aid of daytime heating, we still expect thunderstorm development. Composite analysis shows early this afternoon there will be a displacement of stronger upper level winds with the greater instability as better height falls/mid-level lapse rates lag behind the front. That being said, a regional maximum of CAPE and effective shear overlap looks to set up in central/south central Vermont where greater probabilities of thunderstorms, and stronger convection, exist. Have maintained chances for strong thunderstorms on the north/west fringe of this area in the Adirondacks and northwestern Vermont, but the chances for a stronger storm is brief as the cold front will probably move through by early afternoon in these areas. Storm mode still looks to favor eastward moving multicell linear clusters that sink southeastward with time. A couple of locations, especially where stronger storms develop, could see locally heavy rainfall and nuisance flooding, as a narrow axis of high precipitable water will be present with possible repeated thunderstorms as the cells will tend to build backward relative to the line. Ahead of the thunderstorms, temperatures will soar into the mid 80s to low 90s in much of the valley locations in Vermont, with heat index/feels like temperatures nearly as high. Temperatures will remain fairly mild with lows mainly in the 50s to low 60s as a push of cooler air stalls out. As the old cold front clears it will be close by, and a wave of low pressure will push northeastward along the boundary to our west. Following a mostly quiet night, it will bring more cloud cover and showers with embedded thunderstorms northward into the area by tomorrow afternoon. The latest consensus has trended wetter and cooler, especially in southern portions of the region, where greatest moisture and instability will be present. There is little overlap with any substantial shear, so any thunderstorms are not expected to produce gusty winds or large hail. North and west of the frontal zone there should be more sunshine into the afternoon hours, so best bet for a fully dry day with seasonably warm conditions will be across the St. Lawrence Valley eastward into northwestern Vermont. Most locations will see highs in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...Although there`s been some improvement, still seeing a fair amount of spread in the latest guidance for Saturday, associated with timing/placement of a surface front, the track of weak low pressure, and the axis of heaviest rainfall. There does seem to be a bit of a trend to bring the low over or just to the north of our area as it treks eastward, eventually into maine. Should this trend hold, the axis of heaviest rain would extend from roughly the southern Adirondacks across central VT and then into northern NH and western Maine. This would give 24-hr rain totals ranging from around a quarter of an inch west of the Adirondacks to three-quarters to 1 inch from the spine of the Greens eastward. Showers would likely be fairly widespread over central and southern sections, and with PWATs approaching 1.5 inches, wouldn`t be surprised to see some briefly heavy rain. Poor mid level lapse rates will make for tall, skinny CAPE, with SB values generally 250-400 J/kg. Enough for a few rumbles of thunder, but nothing strong or severe. Note that the latest Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC does include much of VT and a small section of northeastern NY in a Marginal Risk, which seems reasonable at this point. Otherwise, highs on Saturday will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, while both Friday and Saturday nights will mainly be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...The second half of the weekend is looking more favorable as we`ll see some brief ridging settle over the region. A few showers can`t be ruled out, but expect if any develop they`ll be pretty isolated. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Thereafter, we`ll see a return to a more active weather pattern as the mid/upper level trough deepens across the Central Plains/Great Lakes regions. The result will be an unsettled weather pattern for our region as a series of shortwaves and frontal boundaries pinwheel push through. As per usual, exact timing of these features is difficult at this time, so stayed close to NBM through this period, which gives showers chances every day through mid week. Temperatures will remain seasonable with daytime highs in the 70s to around 80F and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions will continue through the period, aside from any direct hits from isolated to scattered convection expected during the daytime hours, especially 18Z to 22Z. Coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be limited, especially in New York with earlier push of a surface cold front. MPV and RUT have somewhat greater chances of thunderstorms, but in this time range VCSH is used to denote the possible activity. There is also a low chance (30% or less) of ceilings lowering below 3000 feet between 12 and 18Z at MSS. South-southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, or light/terrain driven, will turn northwesterly behind the cold front in the 14Z to 17Z period at MSS and SLK, 18Z to 20Z period in the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont, and towards 22-23Z at RUT. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Kutikoff