076
FXUS61 KBTV 050809
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
409 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will produce scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms today, with a few stronger storms capable of
small hail, gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. More wet
weather is expected beginning Friday afternoon and continuing
into Saturday. Generally seasonable weather is expected next
week, and an unsettled pattern should lead to more chances for
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Thursday...A narrow zone with showers and
thunderstorms largely on the cold side of a surface front is
currently draped just west of the region. Out ahead of it, with
the aid of daytime heating, we still expect thunderstorm
development. Composite analysis shows early this afternoon there
will be a displacement of stronger upper level winds with the
greater instability as better height falls/mid-level lapse rates
lag behind the front. That being said, a regional maximum of
CAPE and effective shear overlap looks to set up in
central/south central Vermont where greater probabilities of
thunderstorms, and stronger convection, exist.

Have maintained chances for strong thunderstorms on the
north/west fringe of this area in the Adirondacks and
northwestern Vermont, but the chances for a stronger storm is
brief as the cold front will probably move through by early
afternoon in these areas. Storm mode still looks to favor
eastward moving multicell linear clusters that sink
southeastward with time. A couple of locations, especially where
stronger storms develop, could see locally heavy rainfall and
nuisance flooding, as a narrow axis of high precipitable water
will be present with possible repeated thunderstorms as the
cells will tend to build backward relative to the line. Ahead of
the thunderstorms, temperatures will soar into the mid 80s to
low 90s in much of the valley locations in Vermont, with heat
index/feels like temperatures nearly as high. Temperatures will
remain fairly mild with lows mainly in the 50s to low 60s as a
push of cooler air stalls out.

As the old cold front clears it will be close by, and a wave of
low pressure will push northeastward along the boundary to our
west. Following a mostly quiet night, it will bring more cloud
cover and showers with embedded thunderstorms northward into
the area by tomorrow afternoon. The latest consensus has trended
wetter and cooler, especially in southern portions of the
region, where greatest moisture and instability will be present.
There is little overlap with any substantial shear, so any
thunderstorms are not expected to produce gusty winds or large
hail. North and west of the frontal zone there should be more
sunshine into the afternoon hours, so best bet for a fully dry
day with seasonably warm conditions will be across the St.
Lawrence Valley eastward into northwestern Vermont. Most
locations will see highs in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...Although there`s been some improvement,
still seeing a fair amount of spread in the latest guidance for
Saturday, associated with timing/placement of a surface front, the
track of weak low pressure, and the axis of heaviest rainfall. There
does seem to be a bit of a trend to bring the low over or just to
the north of our area as it treks eastward, eventually into maine.
Should this trend hold, the axis of heaviest rain would extend from
roughly the southern Adirondacks across central VT and then into
northern NH and western Maine. This would give 24-hr rain totals
ranging from around a quarter of an inch west of the Adirondacks to
three-quarters to 1 inch from the spine of the Greens eastward.
Showers would likely be fairly widespread over central and southern
sections, and with PWATs approaching 1.5 inches, wouldn`t be
surprised to see some briefly heavy rain. Poor mid level lapse rates
will make for tall, skinny CAPE, with SB values generally 250-400
J/kg. Enough for a few rumbles of thunder, but nothing strong or
severe. Note that the latest Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from
WPC does include much of VT and a small section of northeastern NY
in a Marginal Risk, which seems reasonable at this point. Otherwise,
highs on Saturday will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, while
both Friday and Saturday nights will mainly be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...The second half of the weekend is
looking more favorable as we`ll see some brief ridging settle
over the region. A few showers can`t be ruled out, but expect if
any develop they`ll be pretty isolated. Otherwise, expect
partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Thereafter, we`ll see a
return to a more active weather pattern as the mid/upper level
trough deepens across the Central Plains/Great Lakes regions.
The result will be an unsettled weather pattern for our region
as a series of shortwaves and frontal boundaries pinwheel push
through. As per usual, exact timing of these features is
difficult at this time, so stayed close to NBM through this
period, which gives showers chances every day through mid week.
Temperatures will remain seasonable with daytime highs in the
70s to around 80F and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions will continue through the
period, aside from any direct hits from isolated to scattered
convection expected during the daytime hours, especially 18Z to
22Z. Coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be limited,
especially in New York with earlier push of a surface cold
front. MPV and RUT have somewhat greater chances of
thunderstorms, but in this time range VCSH is used to denote the
possible activity. There is also a low chance (30% or less) of
ceilings lowering below 3000 feet between 12 and 18Z at MSS.

South-southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, or light/terrain driven,
will turn northwesterly behind the cold front in the 14Z to 17Z
period at MSS and SLK, 18Z to 20Z period in the Champlain
Valley and northern Vermont, and towards 22-23Z at RUT.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff