671
FXUS61 KBTV 230743
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and humidity is expected through Tuesday, before a
cold front slides south late Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms and a return to more
seasonable weather. An unsettled pattern emerges towards the end of
the week, with another wet weekend possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 317 AM EDT Monday...
**Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisories in effect through 8
PM Tuesday.**
It`s a quiet night on the eve of what could be our two hottest
days of the year. There`s a bit of a boundary moving northeast
right now. It comes with a batch of stratus clouds and a couple
embedded pinprick showers occasionally appearing on radar for
about 5-10 minutes before quickly dissipating. There`s also
plenty of fog in Vermont, where this cloud layer has yet to
emerge as it rounds a mid-level ridge axis. Temperatures are in
the lower 70s across the St. Lawrence Valley, but have managed
to fall into the 60s across the rest of the forecast area. As
clouds pull away this morning, quick warming is expected.
Surface dewpoints will also continue to climb as low to mid 70
dewpoints across Canada slide eastwards. Increasingly dry mid-
level air and subsidence beneath an intensifying upper high will
promote efficient warming today. Temperatures are likely to
soar into the low to mid 90s with some upper 90s in the
Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River Valley. The slight
positive to this is that some dry air should mix to the surface
and bring dewpoints back towards the lower 60s. Heat indices in
the Champlain Valley are still likely to reach about 105, with
widespread 92-103 for the rest of the region. A shower or
thunderstorm could spark along the Vermont and New Hampshire
border, but there will not be anything across the forecast area
otherwise.
Overnight, little cooling is expected due to steady
southwest winds. Sheltered portions of the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom should be able to take advantage of lower
dewpoints from afternoon mixing and make it into the upper 60s,
but the rest of Vermont and northern New York are likely to fail
falling below 70. Due to the winds, it is not impossible that
parts of the Champlain Valley, like BTV, get below 80.
Another hot day will unfold on Tuesday, but a cold front will
shift towards us. The convergence along it is not particularly
strong, and the moisture feed, though rich, is thin. There`s
minimal shear to support organization, but strong heating with
near 90 to mid-upper 90s will provide about 2000 J/kg of CAPE.
If there are any stronger updrafts, a strong or localized severe
storm is possible. For now, high res guidance suggests pulse
convection and perhaps a couple transient multi-cell clusters.
So PoPs are generally 20-40% across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 317 AM EDT Monday...Temperatures will be in the 60s in most
places by Wednesday morning, except in the valleys of southern
Vermont where they look to be stuck in the lower 70s. However, dew
points will be in the 50s and 60s so the humidity will be noticeably
lower with light winds out of the northwest. A cold front will stall
somewhere to the south of the region for the middle of the week.
Highs in the upper 70s and 80s Wednesday will feel much milder after
the early week heat with near 90 temperatures hanging on in southern
zones. The day will be mainly dry and mostly sunny under the
influence of high pressure in Canada, with a light northerly wind.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 317 AM EDT Monday...With a cold front stalled to our south at
the end of the week, we`ll have seasonable temperatures and
shower/thunderstorm chances as areas of low pressure develop along
the front. No major impacts are expected at this time as we sit in
the cool sector of the system and precipitation remains progressive.
An upper shortwave tracking along the low level thermal gradient is
expected to enhance the upper forcing for ascent on Thursday, so we
have a 15-35% chance of showers during the day and evening, and a
few rumbles of thunder are possible in southern Vermont.
Friday, coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be more
widespread as the boundary lingers south of our area and surface low
pressure approaches across the Great Lakes with about 50-70% chance
of precipitation Friday through Friday night. An axis of surface
instability looks to set up across the St. Lawrence Valley,
indicating the most favorable area for some thunderstorm activity
will be up that way in the afternoon. Model consensus begins to
really crumble on Saturday, but there should be enough forcing
around for us to have 40-60% chance showers and thunderstorms. Highs
Thursday through Saturday look to be near or cooler than seasonal
averages in the 70s to lower 80s and lows during this same time
frame near or above seasonable in the 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Patchy fog is developing across northern
New York and Vermont, but some stratus clouds around 2000-5000
ft agl will slide east and arc over a ridge axis. Decided to
TEMPO fog for the next few hours since cloud cover will prevent
fog, but any breaks will result in quick fog development. After
09z, clouds should begin to decrease and expect to observe 1/2SM
FG at KMPV and KSLK with 3-6SM elsewhere. Fog should quickly
rise after sunrise about 11z with terrain driven flows between 5
and 10 knots, up to 15 knots possible at KMSS. The cloud layer
will lift and diminish with most SKC by 00z, by which points
winds will trend back towards 4-8 knots out of the southwest,
except southeast at KRUT.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high maximum and minimum temperatures are likely during an
upcoming hot spell. Below are the current daily records that could
be broken:
Max Temp Records for 06-23
Site Forecast - Current Record
KBTV 98 (Break) - 96|2020
KMPV 93 (Break) - 90|1975
KMSS 94 (Break) - 92|2020
KPBG 96 (Break) - 95|1983
KSLK 92 (Break) - 89|1964
Max Temp Records for 06-24
Site Forecast - Current Record
KBTV 96 (Tie) - 96|2003
KMPV 93 (Break) - 89|2003
KMSS 92 (Break) - 91|1957
KPBG 94 (Break) - 93|1975
KSLK 90 (Tie) - 90|2003
High Min Temp Records
Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK
06-22 71|1976 67|1953 66|1976 68|1976 63|1976
06-23 75|1894 65|1985 71|1975 70|1975 64|1921
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
VTZ006>008-010-011-016>021.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
Tuesday for VTZ001-002-005-009.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for VTZ003-004.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
NYZ026-027-087.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
Tuesday for NYZ028-035.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for NYZ029>031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...Team BTV