288 FXUS61 KBTV 251818 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 218 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is currently moving across the area with scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder in southern Vermont. Drier and cooler conditions briefly return tonight, then increasing heat and humidity develops through Monday with limited chances for rain. More unsettled weather is anticipated through Wednesday, followed by dry and cooler conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday...A cold front currently across Orange county and Addison County in Vermont is moving southeast across the region. Light to moderate showers associated with the boundary have led to generally a few hundreths to two-tenths of an inch of rain as it passes through. Some lingering showers are trailing behind as a the dewpoint boundary is currently crossing the international border. Showers today will continue to be scattered hit or miss type. This front has weakened quite a bit with limited instability and two defined boundaries. As a result the thunderstorm threat has trended down considerably with satellite imagery also showing stable mountain waves across Vermont and considerable cloud cover. There is some clearing across southern Rutland and Windsor, so if there is to be any rumbles, they would be there across the extreme southern portion of our region. Showers look to diminish and move out by mid afternoon with clearing and drying conditions for the evening. Clouds are already clearing behind the front in the St. Lawrence Valley and this will be the trend for the rest of the region. Under northwest flow behind the front, wildfire smoke from the Canadian wildfires in Manitoba and Saskatchewan will gradually sink into the North Country. Current visibilities upstream do not show any reductions, but observations in central and northern Quebec are sparse. At a minimum there may be some air quality reductions and haze around beginning late tonight into tomorrow. Clearing skies and lighter winds are anticipated tonight, and with the rainfall from today, patchy fog is likely to develop in the climatologically favored locations in addition to the Northeast Kingdom. The added smoke may enhance the fog from added cloud condensation nuclei leading to some higher confidence in locally denser areas of fog. Overnight lows, as a result of good radiational cooling, should also fall into the upper 40s in the higher terrain and mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Fog should mix out in the morning on Saturday with pleasant weather to start the weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow, however, dewpoints will only be in the upper 50s, making it feel more comfortable. The only downside on an otherwise pleasant day Saturday will be the continued presence of haze and smoke from the wildfires. No air quality alerts are currently issued, but reduced air quality tomorrow is possible. Clouds will increase Saturday night but should remain on the dry side with temperatures in the 60s. An approaching shortwave late Saturday night may lead to some breezy conditions in the Champlain Valley from channeled flow, particularly on Lake Champlain. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday...Sunday will see a resurgence of humidity as a shortwave skids across the region. Trends have been to keep the bulk of the energy to our south though it has been hovering along the Rutland/Bennington County border so it will require some monitoring for rain chances. The wave will be fairly progressive so any precipitation will be short-lived and mainly confined to early Sunday morning through early Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky and heavily dependent on the position of the shortwave. North of the wave, temperatures will be in the upper 80s, and closer to 80 further southward. Cloud cover from the position of the wave may lead to higher or lower temperatures as a result. Southerly winds will likely lead to breezy to gusty winds in the higher terrain as an associated low-level jet rides near the surface to a few thousand feet agl. Increased shear and some potential daytime heating may provide enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder, particularly in southern Vermont, but without any main forcing mechanism, robust thunderstorms chances look low and limited. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday...Hot and humid conditions returning to the North Country will be the primary concern for the Monday and Tuesday time frame. 850-500mb shortwave ridging should bring the hottest conditions on Monday, with 850mb temps near +19C supportive of valley temperatures in the 90-95F range. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70F expected. May reach heat advisory criteria in valley locations on Monday, and this will be monitored closely by forthcoming shifts. With a shortwave trough in nwly flow potentially crossing the area on Tuesday, looking for a chance of showers and thunderstorms (PoPs 30-40%), and given favorable PBL heating, a few stronger storms will be possible. Stronger sfc-850mb cold frontal passage expected sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Thereafter, looking at a significant change in air mass as cooler and drier air moves in from wrn Quebec and northern Ontario. Sfc anticyclone over the Great Lakes is unseasonably strong (+2 to +3 SD above the CFSR climatology) and slow moving for late July, and should bring tranquil and low humidity conditions for Thursday and Friday next week. Looking for high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, and delightful dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. With high pressure and mostly clear conditions, present indications suggest good potential for radiational fog Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night, especially in favored valley locations within the Adirondacks and across central and eastern Vermont. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Cold front progressing NW-SE across the North Country at 1730Z is bringing intervals of MVFR conditions in scattered rain showers. Can`t rule out a couple embedded thunderstorms across s-central VT (possibly KRUT) through 21Z before cold front exits south of the region. Thereafter, gradual clearing expected behind the front from NW-SE with VFR conditions late afternoon through 05-06Z tonight, and N-NW winds of 5-10kts. Given clearing skies and recent rainfall, conditions look favorable for nocturnal fog at MPV, EFK, SLK. Included periods of prevailing/TEMPO IFR fog at these locations 06-12Z. Returning SKC with light NW wind conditions during the daylight hrs on Saturday. Local SE 8kt winds at KPBG later Saturday morning with developing lake breeze. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Danzig NEAR TERM...Danzig SHORT TERM...Danzig LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Banacos