072
FXUS61 KBTV 282338
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 PM EDT Tuesday...

A Flood Watch has been issued for much of central/southern Vermont
and Essex County NY. Expected rainfall in those areas has increased.
Amounts between 2-3 inches should fall in most places, with isolated
amounts up to 5 inches possible. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding is possible there.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Periods of rain continue tonight through Wednesday night.
Localized flash flooding is possible if storms repeatedly track over
the same area.

2. After a brief period of drier weather, unsettled conditions
are expected to return later this weekend into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper-level low builds into the region today and
remains over the area into Thursday. An associated surface low has
formed over the Great Lakes and it will occlude as it moves into New
York and New England, bringing consistent showers. The widespread
showers have entered northern New York, and scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed across the higher terrain in Vermont.
As the afternoon and evening progress, the combination of
strengthening synoptic dynamics and increasing instability will
cause these showers to become widespread. A lack of deep-layer is
expected to prevent any severe threat though. These storms will
likely have the highest rainfall rates of the entire event, but dry
antecedent conditions and some south to north storm motion should
keep the flood threat relatively low through this afternoon. The
axis of rain will become more sse-nnw oriented heading into this
evening and night, and mostly stall in the same locations. However,
as the evening goes on, this axis of rain looks to become a more
broken line, so there will be rounds of showers heading over
the areas but likely not constant rain. While the precipitation
should trend toward more stratiform as the night goes on, some
convective enhancement will still be likely, especially in
southern Vermont where the highest totals are expected. This
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning would likely have the
highest concern for any flash flooding as the axis of rain looks
to stay relatively stationary. Heading through tomorrow, the
dynamics weaken and the axis of rain looks to become more broken
and lighter. Periods of showers will continue tomorrow night
through Thursday, but they will become much lighter and
gradually less widespread as the surface low weakens and pushes
east. The area of highest concern is the eastern slopes and
spine of the southern Green Mountains where the best dynamics
will combine with upsloping. The east slopes of the Adirondacks
will likely be the second area of focus due to the upsloping.
Most areas will see between 1-3 inches of rain, but isolated
areas up to 5 inches are possible in parts of the southern
Greens. Still, in the more favored areas, only isolated to
scattered flash flooding looks to be possible. The Champlain
Valley and Northeast Kingdom will likely receive some locally
lower totals due to downsloping. Showers will become much more
isolated heading into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Brief ridging across the region will continue to bring
drier conditions for the start of the weekend. Seasonably warm
temperatures are expected for the start of this weekend, with high
temperatures in 80s areawide. Unsettled weather conditions are
expected to return for the latter half of the weekend into the
beginning of next week as another shortwave trough moves through,
although there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of
this feature and how widespread showers will be. Temperatures will
largely be influenced by any cloud cover and precipitation, but
above normal temperatures are anticipated with highs climbing into
the mid 70s and 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Rain and a few rumbles of thunder are
lifting north across the region. A few downpours have dropped
visibilities below 3SM, but the extent of heavy rain has been
diminishing. Upcoming activity is not expected to have much
lightning, and no explicit mention of thunder is noted for any
TAF, but could occur through 06z and again after 13z Wednesday.
Favored a gradual reduction in ceilings and visibility with the
potential for the worst surface conditions around 09z-17z with
most terminals IFR or near-IFR. This will be timed with heavy
rain associated with a surface low expected to pass north. Winds
will go calm or variable on its approach. Southeast winds will
then be favored across Vermont, and northeast over northern New
York with speeds increasing to 6-11 knots sustained, with some
downslope gusting at areas like KRUT up to 20-22 knots.
Eventually, low pressure will develop more strongly off the New
England Coast. Surface winds will begin to diminish, but the
flow aloft will remain southeasterly at 30-40 knots at 2000 ft
agl across Vermont. Some LLWS is noted. As the surface low
decays, conditions are expected to improve. However, across
Vermont, there will likely be some redeveloping convection 18z
Wed to about 03z Thurs, which could produce locally heavy rain
reducing visibilities.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for VTZ009>011-018>021.
NY...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NYZ034-035.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes