568 FXUS61 KBTV 060552 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 152 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A hot and humid day is on tap today with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices ranging from 90 to 100 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong or severe, are expected Monday afternoon with gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall possible. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Tuesday ahead of a cold front. The weather turns quiet mid to late this week with seasonal temperatures and occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 AM EDT Sunday...A warm and humid day is on tap across the North Country today with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints this morning remain in the mid to upper 50s but upstream observations are already showing dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. We expect this air mass to advect eastward into Vermont and northern New York by late this morning. The combination of the aforementioned temperatures and dewpoints will yield heat indices ranging from 90 to 100 degrees this afternoon. The main focus for dangerous heat indices (95+ degrees) remains across the Champlain and southern Connecticut River Valleys but we could see portions of the St. Lawrence Valley briefly approach heat indices near 95 degrees by mid afternoon. The GFS remains pretty bullish in trying to spark some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon while many of the high-res guidance seems rather unimpressive with shower and thunder probabilities. With the upper level ridge axis further south across the Mid-Atlantic, the best subsidence will reside south of our forecast area so we have trended closer to the GFS solution thinking that we should have enough moisture and instability to spark a few showers and storms this afternoon. We should have around 1000 J/kg of CAPE available and PWATs beginning to surge above 1.5" so we could see some brief heavy rain with any storms that develop today but severe storms are not expected. Any storms that develop will dissipate near sunset given they will be driven by diurnal instability. Another warm night is expected tonight with lows only dropping into the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 AM EDT Sunday...A frontal boundary is expected to stall near the International Border on Monday and will be the catalyst for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The latest high-res guidance continues to show that convection on Monday will largely be in the general vicinity of a frontal boundary that will ever so slightly sink south throughout the day. Temperatures ahead of the front are expected to warm into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees which will help set up a nice baroclinic zone given temperatures behind the front will only warm into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Moisture will pool ahead of the front which should allow for CAPE values in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE to develop with effective layer shear of 30-35 knots already in place. In addition, very high PWAT values, likely exceeding 2 inches, will develop which should allow for any of the thunderstorms that develop to drop torrential rainfall. These storms will be moving around 30 to 35 mph but the idea that training storms may develop seems probable given the slow moving frontal boundary. With high PWATs in place, training storms have the potential to produce localized flooding. In addition, wet microbursts will be potential given forecast soundings which could allow for some of the stronger storms to produce wind damage. We will be watching the severe and flood potential closely over the next 48 hours but the biggest concern area is likely right along the International Border. On Tuesday, the frontal boundary will still be over portions of Vermont and the Adirondacks. Another round of showers and thunderstorms that could lead to heavy to torrential rainfall seems probable once again. However, the main rainfall axis is expected across central and southern portions of Vermont which should help mitigate flood concerns at the heavy rainfall axis on Monday and Tuesday will not be located over the same region. A decent shortwave trough moving through the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday should help amplify the upper level flow enough to help finally kick the cold front to our south by Tuesday evening; effectively ending rainfall chances across the North Country. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Sunday...Quieter and drier weather is expected on Wednesday with increasing sunshine throughout the day. However, Thursday is beginning to look more unsettled than originally thought with a sharp upper level trough and associated shortwave energy expected to be the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms. The latest 00Z guidance is actually showing a mid-level jet streak in the left exit region of the upper level jet which would favor more widespread thunderstorm activity. We could see some decent rainfall from these storms on Thursday but PWATs will likely be around normal for this time of the year (around 1.5") so we don`t anticipate any concerns for excessive rainfall at this time. On Friday, we will begin to see mid-level height rises across the region which should help lower rain chances but it won`t be until Friday night/Saturday morning that the upper level ridge axis will slide into the Northeast and allow for drier weather for next weekend. Granted, the timing of the ridge may slow or accelerate 6-12 hours so Saturday could still see some showers but models, both ensemble and deterministic, favor a dry Sunday at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all terminals throughout the forecast period. Winds tonight will generally be light and southerly, with some LLWS possible at several terminals over the next few hours. Broken mid to high clouds will continue to stream overhead, with ceilings generally above 7000 ft AGL. Winds will trend more southwesterly by tomorrow morning, increasing towards 7 to 12 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots possible, with locally stronger winds at KMSS. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible towards 18Z, although coverage and timing is still low confidence to include in the TAF at this time. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Forecast high temperatures for Sunday will bring us within a few degrees of record temps for a few sites. Here are the record high temperatures for Sunday: Max Temp Records Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 07-06 95|2010 91|2010 95|1993 93|2010 91|1933 Here are the record high minimum temperatures for Sunday: High Min Temp Records DateKBTV KPBG KSLK 07-06 74|1897 74|2010 65|1931 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005-009-011-021. NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Kremer CLIMATE...NWS BTV