934 FXUS61 KBTV 250729 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 329 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring scattered showers as it moves southeastward through the region today; in southern areas there will be a threat of thunderstorms during the midday hours. Drier and cooler conditions briefly return tonight, then a warming trend develops through Monday with limited chances for rain. More unsettled weather is anticipated through Wednesday, followed by dry and cooler conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 329 AM EDT Friday...Bottom line up front: potential for hazardous weather today has continued to diminish. A well-defined frontal zone is over the region this morning with weak low pressure over southeastern Canada attached to a cold front oriented from northeast to southwest. It will continue sliding towards the southeast throughout the day, and increasing low level convergence ahead of the boundary along ample moisture will support scattered to numerous showers. The cloud cover out ahead of the boundary and early day timing of the front will greatly limit low-level lapse rates, resulting in poor instability to have low probabilities of thunder, let alone severe thunderstorms, today. With favorable effective shear for some storm organization, if there is sufficient instability in southern portions of Vermont, such as in Orange, Rutland, and Windsor counties, these areas could still see an isolated stronger thunderstorm. This potential is limited based on the early frontal timing, with maybe the noon to 2 PM timeframe being most favorable. Some widely scattered additional showers are possible with a secondary cold front moving through during the afternoon, but the thunderstorm threat will be diminishing with introduction of a plethora of dry air aloft. Otherwise, we`re still looking at quiet weather tonight into Saturday. Have added patchy fog wording to the climatologically favored areas and lowered temperatures accordingly with expectation of good radiational cooling, especially over the Adirondacks given the latest model guidance showing high pressure moving right over the region by daybreak. Aside from some cirrus, skies should largely be sunny. With good mixing depths associated with dry low level air, temperatures should still warm up quite nicely into the low to mid 80s, making for an arguably perfect summer day. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 308 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night will begin with some high clouds streaming eastward across the region with otherwise quiet weather. Somewhat warmer and more humid air will return for Sunday as southerly flow returns. A shortwave trough will cross our region during the morning hours while the associated frontal system passes to our south. There has been a notable southward shift in the model guidance, hence a large reduction in PoPs from the previous forecast. Showers and thunderstorms generally look less likely, especially as one goes northeastward. Relatedly, high temperatures for Sunday are tricky. Where precipitation chances are low across northern areas, mostly sunny skies during most of the day will support highs soaring into the mid and upper 80s for many locations. Farther south, there is higher spread in possible temperatures (from the low 80s to near 90), dependent on how long cloud cover and rain persists. Winds on the mountain summits may be a bit higher than currently forecast, particularly during the morning, as southwesterly flow increases ahead of the trough passage. Thereafter there is greater confidence in lighter winds, as well diminishing precipitation chances across the area. Total rainfall on Sunday, relatedly, is rather uncertain with large spread in 10th-90th percentile amounts, especially southern areas again, where there is a low chance of substantially heavier rainfall (0.5"-0.75") than what the blend of models is showing (up to 0.1" inch). Interestingly it would appear where this rain is more likely the environment will be relatively stable with lower thunderstorm potential, while farther north instability will be more likely to support isolated thunderstorms but the forcing for convection may be too limited to see any precipitation. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 308 AM EDT Friday...Sunday night into Monday will be warm and dry ahead of an approaching cold front which will cross the area Monday night. Another frontal passage will bring showers to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. After a warm start to the week, will have a cooling trend as we head through the week. Models have not been very consistent with timing of showers for next week, so would call it uncertain at best. At this time not seeing any significant weather events, but several chances for showers to watch. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Changeable flight categories expected over the next 18 hours associated with a cold front and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. A brief window of MVFR cigs/vis is likely at most sites, along with some embedded lightning. Breezy south/southwest winds 5 to 15 knots ahead of this boundary will shift to the west/northwest by 12z Friday. As this occurs cigs will lower to MVFR at most sites with some IFR possible at SLK/MPV and MSS between 10z-15z Friday, before a slow improving trend toward VFR occurs by 18z Friday. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Neiles