147
FXUS61 KBTV 140540
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures cooling tonight into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Much
warmer and drier weather is anticipated on Monday under mostly
sunny skies. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to mid
60s with light north winds. Clouds thicken with rain showers
developing on Monday night into Tuesday. Another period of below
normal temperatures with accumulating mountain snow showers are
likely for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 131 AM EDT Monday...The last clouds are eroding in the
Northeast Kingdom with clear skies. Some wind off the surface is
keeping us from radiating more efficiently, but several
locations have already crossed previous lows, and so nudged
temperatures down towards the NBM 10th percentile and LAV
guidance. Previous discussion below...

GOES 19 vis satl imagery shows most of northern NY has broken
in mostly sunny skies, while clouds are hanging tough along and
east of the Greens. Clouds have impacted temps with values
struggling to reach 40F eastern VT, while readings have bopped
into the mid/upper 50s acrs the SLV, with 57F at OGS and 56F at
MSS. As drier air continues to advect into our region on
northerly flow and mixing from aloft, clouds wl continue to
dissipate over VT from west to east. Based on NAM sounding data
at 1V4 and EFK showing 80%>RH between sfc and 800mb thru 04z,
feel clouds wl hang tough thru midnight, before finally
dissipating. Temps wl drop slowly acrs eastern sections, based
on clouds and stronger pres gradient from departing cyclone east
of Cape Cod. Meanwhile over northern NY feel temps fall quicker
and reach cross over values, combined with lighter winds wl
support some patchy fog in the SLV and portions of the northern
Dacks. Lows ranging from mid 20s to mid/upper 30s acrs our
region.

Monday wl be the pick of the weather in terms of warm temps and
mostly sunny skies with light winds. Given weak flow aloft, a bit of
uncertainty with regards to mixing potential and high temps. Also,
already watching mid/upper lvl cloud canopy approaching western NY,
which could provide us with some filtered sunshine and prevent temps
from completely reaching their potential. For now have mid 50s to
mid 60s, with warmest values in the SLV/CPV, much cooler near the
lake. Also, noted dry layer just above the sfc, which should mix and
produce min rh values in the 25 to 35% range on Monday aftn,
especially VSF/BTV and Middlebury areas.

Monday night next system is approaching with deep layer moisture
increasing quickly in the fast mid lvl flow. Expect a period of rain
showers to develop from west to east acrs our cwa. Overall qpf on
Monday night wl be light, especially here in the CPV associated with
some shadowing with developing southwest flow of 25 to 30 knots off
the dacks. Temps with clouds/precip hold in the upper 30s east to
near 50F CPV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...A cold front is expected to cross the
forecast area from west to east on Tuesday, bringing slightly cooler
air and increased chances for precipitation. Highs will still rise
slightly above normal, but about 5-15 degrees below what we`re
expecting Monday, depending on the location, mostly in the 50s.
Portions of northern New York look to take the biggest cut in
temperatures while areas east of the Greens may only have a couple
of temperatures difference from one day to the other. Meanwhile,
drier air will flow in following the cold front, dropping dew points
throughout the day. Highest chance of precipitation Tuesday will be
in the afternoon with all but a few higher elevation spots seeing
rain during the mild daylight hours. Precipitation will be light,
only about 0.02-0.11" anticipated. Most likely location of showers
will be the northern Greens and Northeast Kingdom with 70-90%
chances of precip. Deep atmospheric mixing will allow for
southwesterly wind gusts up to 20-35 knots west of the Greens,
highest winds impacting St. Lawrence Valley due to channeling. Just
a touch of instability available Tuesday afternoon combined with
proper frontal lifting and meager moisture, a rumble of thunder is
not out of the question, but not looking overall favorable.

Tuesday night will be near seasonable as cooler air continues to
take hold of the region with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Upslope showers will continue to keep the precipitation machine
going overnight, and colder temperatures and steep lapse rates will
mean more widespread mountain snow showers, though much of the
Champlain Valley near Lake Champlain will remain in the rain zone.
Most areas should see at least 30% chance of precip except portions
of southern Vermont, which may stay dry in downslope shadowing.
Highest chances 60-80% will be on west facing slopes of the
Adirondacks and northern Greens. Snow accumulations will be up
to 2 inches in the Adirondacks and western high elevations of
the Greens, but most other locations will see little to no
accumulation. Even where it does accumulate a bit, it is
expected to melt quickly the following day. West to
southwesterly winds will remain a bit breezy Tuesday night,
gusting as high as about 15-25 knots.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...Upslope snow is likely to continue
Wednesday and Wednesday night with mostly snow in the mountains and
rain in the wider valleys throughout the day as temperatures reach
only the mid 30s to upper 40s (55-75% PoPs), then most or all snow
Wednesday night as temperatures fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s
(50-70% PoPs). Probability of precipitation begins to dwindle on
Thursday as atmospheric moisture decreases, with some 15-25% PoPs
mainly at higher elevations. We continue to see deterministic
models outputting several inches for the northern Greens and
Adirondacks. With more scattered and fewer showers around on
Thursday, temperatures will return to the 40s and begin a
warming trend into the weekend. Highs Friday through Sunday will
be in the upper 40s to lower 60s. We`re also anticipating
another storm system and round of precipitation Friday night
into Saturday. Due to such mild temperatures, we`re forecasting
mostly rain for this system outside of the very high peaks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Clear skies should prevail the next 6 to 9
hours before clouds at or above 12000 ft agl shift east. Some
flow off the surface is still present with LLWS potentially
affecting KRUT right now, which should prevent fog formation
initially. Surface winds are currently light and variable. Winds
off the ground decrease about 09z, and there could be a brief
interval where KSLK or KRUT could fog in. Dry conditions will
likely keep any fog intermittent, with visibilities mainly 3-6SM
through about 11-12z. After 12z, northwest winds around 5 knots
initially will gradually transition to south winds still about 5
knots. Precipitation will approach from the west, crossing the
St. Lawrence River into New York about 23z-01z. Dry air near the
ground may result in virga and have mainly noted VCSH or PROB30s
for now as showers shift east into 06z Tuesday. Ceilings will
lower towards 3500-5000 ft agl with rain.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes/Taber
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Haynes