509 FXUS61 KBTV 072339 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 739 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue into the afternoon with heat indices in the low to mid 90s ahead of some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms which may be strong or severe this afternoon with periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible. The weather turns quieter later this week, with slightly above average temperatures and occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 737 PM EDT Monday...We have ended the Heat Advisory today as the hottest temperatures have already occurred today. We expect temperatures and heat indices to continue falling throughout this evening. Showers and thunderstorms this evening, some of which may be strong or severe, could yield periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Localized flooding may be possible, particularly in locations that receive several rounds of precipitation. Please continue to stay weather aware tonight. Previous discussion...Hot and humid conditions are ongoing east of the Adirondacks ahead of a slow moving frontal system. Showers and embedded thunderstorms have begun to develop across the St. Lawrence Valley and portions of the northern Adirondacks dropping temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. Outside of the current shower activity, temperatures are in the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints near 70. As a result, a heat advisory for heat indices in the mid 90s remains in effect until 8 PM for the Champlain Valley. To stay safe in these conditions, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outdoors. This environment will be ripe for thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening. Current surface CAPE values are near 1500 J/kg with Pwats around 1.5-2." Deep warm layer cloud depths with the enhanced precipitable water will create favorable conditions for torrential downpours and some localized flooding into the evening, particularly across northern New York and northern Vermont. With the orientation of the front and prevailing synoptic flow, slower moving training storms are also anticipated which could further the localized flooding threat. In addition to the heavy rain potential, the nose of the LLJ will be over the St. Lawrence Valley which could help mix down some gusty winds under any thunderstorms. Southerly channeled flow in the Champlain Valley has already led to gusts 25- 30 mph. One concern with the winds is that DCAPE values are around 1000 J/kg out ahead of the system which would enhance any gusty winds and heavy rains. While we are not expecting widespread severe weather, an few isolated strong to severe storms are possible. Be sure to stay weather this afternoon, especially if you have outdoor plans. Shower activity will continue into the overnight, but the strongest storms should weaken beyond sunset as they will mainly be diurnally driven. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s to near 70 in southern Vermont. Tomorrow, the boundary continues its slow progression to the southeast centering itself over southern Vermont into southern New England. Latest CAMs suggest the main axis of moisture should be just south of our area into parts of Massachusetts and NH by Tuesday afternoon which will help limit any stronger showers tomorrow. However, some lingering morning showers and a stray afternoon shower/thunderstorm in extreme southern Windsor County cannot be ruled out. Highs tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than today with values in the mid to upper 70s and lower dewpoints into the low to mid 60s. The area will begin to dry out Tuesday afternoon with decreasing cloud cover into Tuesday evening as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to near 60. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 PM EDT Monday...Seasonable temperatures but unsettled weather will begin to set up in the mid-week. Zonal flow between a ridge across the south and a trough axis across northern Quebec will allow a few shortwaves to progress across the area. Chance showers and possibly a rumble of thunder are forecasted across much of eastern Vermont by Wednesday afternoon and across northern New York by Wednesday night, but where showers and thunderstorms set up remains in question based on the uncertainty in the overall ingredients and instability. While showers are forecasted, dewpoints will feel considerably more comfortable with values in the upper 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 221 PM EDT Monday...Temperatures will be a bit warmer than seasonal normals from Thursday through Monday with high temperatures generally in the 80s with low temperatures in the 60s areawide. The best chance for some precipitation will be on Thursday, before a general drying trend takes over. There will be several upper level shortwaves and weak surface boundaries that cross the area, but no significant weather systems to look at just yet. On Thursday an upper level trough with some shortwave energy will provide the highest chance for showers in the extended. There`s still a lot of uncertainty four days out, but will monitor potential as we get closer for any organized convection. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Lines of thunderstorms are currently crossing the forecast area this evening, producing a variety of conditions. We can expect showers and thunderstorms to continue on and off through about 03Z-08Z Tuesday. Wind direction ahead of the front powering these storms is out of the south, but behind the front we`ve turned northerly. We may continue to see gusty winds associated with any strong thunderstorm. Outside of thunderstorms, gusts are expected to decrease by about 03Z Tuesday and we should see prevailing northerly winds up to 10 knots. We`re also seeing cloud ceilings lower behind this cold front where many sites across northern New York already have cigs 600-900 feet above ground level. These clouds are expected to expand across the entire forecast area overnight tonight, bringing IFR conditions to all sites by about 04Z-08Z Tuesday. As cloud layers lower, we could even see some restrictions to visibility and mist or fog develop at some sites. Confidence is lower on the exact timing of this low stratus lifting, but generally thinking MVFR or higher conditions returning by about 12Z-16Z with MSS the first to improve, potentially ahead of this timetable. VFR conditions likely by the end of the 24 hour TAF period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Danzig NEAR TERM...Danzig/Storm SHORT TERM...Danzig LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Storm