564 FXUS61 KBTV 100757 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 357 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Area of showers continues to slowly push eastward across the region. A second line will likely pass through in the afternoon and evening associated with the actual cold front. Drier weather will prevail for the rest of the week, though there will still be a few shower chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Showers continue to very slowly push eastward across our area. Showers are still across our northern New York zones, but will push eastward towards early morning into Vermont. There is no longer any lightning with this activity. There will be an additional line of showers this afternoon with actual frontal passage. This will be a high shear low CAPE scenario, and the CAPE looks minimal for anything severe, though it will need to be watched if more clearing can occur before it moves through. It will likely weaken east of the Greens where a marine modified airmass will still be in place. Maximum temperatures today will only be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Behind the front, temperatures will fall back into the 50s for most places, with some upper 40s in the Dacks possible. Wednesday should mainly be dry, though have a slight chance for some afternoon showers as upper level shortwave moves across the area. High temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Brief scattered showers are possible Wednesday night along a weak front associated with a low centered over northern Quebec traverses the North Country. The primary focus will be near the international border, but chance showers may shift slightly south depending on how north the low sits in Quebec in future model runs. Any severe weather potential continues to remain low with the timing of the front passing through in the waining hours of any diurnal heating. Furthermore, progged instability shows lower sfc based CAPE near 200 J/kg near sunset. The main concern will be any gusty winds that may accompany these showers. Low-level wind profiles suggest winds may gust up to 30-35 knots with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer shear present. Mountain summits may see gusts 40-50 knots as a low-level jet develops and slides across the region. The timing of the winds may be associated with the development of the nocturnal boundary layer which may increase the probability of these gusty winds being brought to the surface. Overnight lows will be relatively seasonable in the upper 50s in the higher terrain to low 60s in the Champlain Valley. Showers will taper off quickly as they approach Vermont by Thursday morning with large-scale west-northwest flow dominating behind. Thursday looks to be a typical North Country summer day with highs in the 70s and light winds. High pressure will begin to nose in from the northeast with diurnally driven cumulus cloud development across the higher terrain. Given the west/northwest flow HRRR-RAP vertically integrated smoke forecast show a resurgence of Canadian wildfire smoke into the region by mid-week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...No significant or widespread hazardous weather is anticipated in the long term portion of the forecast. Large-scale northwesterly, nearly zonal, flow looks to set up for late week and into the weekend. Dry air will also look to develop as a nose of high pressure continues to sit just to the east of the region. Clear skies, and dry conditions will make ideal conditions for large temperature swings with lows generally in the upper 40s to low 50s and daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Thursday night through Friday looks to be ideal typical summer conditions. By late Friday night, trends have fluctuated precipitation chances about central Vermont as upper- level confluence will bring some energy into the area. Weak stratiform rain across the southern regions look possible Friday night into Saturday morning before upper level high pressure builds in and drags most of the precipitation and warmer air south of our area by Saturday afternoon. Dynamics aloft look weak with no real forcing or organized system, but rather open-wave energy associated with a decaying surface low across the Midwest. Due to the presence of the initial nose of high pressure to our east, soundings have shown decent dry air in place ahead of the Friday nigh energy, indicating some difficulty in appreciable QPF at the onset. However, NBM probabilities of greater than 0.5 inches are 30-40% for the timeframe across southern Vermont. While the weekend looks to be on the seasonably cooler side, warmer air returns for next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions prevail across the region overnight with an area of showers slowly moving across the north country, with ceilings gradually lowering as rain moves in. The best chances of precipitation overnight will be across northern New York, with additional showers expected throughout the day Tuesday. Some visibility reductions will be possible within heavier showers. Winds will generally remain southerly throughout the forecast period, around 5 to 12 knots, with increasing gusts during the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Isolated SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Danzig LONG TERM...Danzig AVIATION...Neiles