919 FXUS61 KBTV 110747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 347 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation moves out this morning, and mostly dry and seasonable conditions should prevail for the rest of the day. A low pressure system move through tomorrow and it will bring elevation dependent rain and snow for much of the region. The highest accumulations will be in southern Vermont, where a few inches are possible. Drier weather returns to end the weekend and start next week, and temperatures will increase significantly. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 346 AM EDT Friday...Light showers continue across much of the region, but they have begun to decrease in coverage and intensity. Snow levels are around 1,000 feet, with lower values in southern areas where precipitation has been heavier and higher values in northern areas where precipitation has been lighter. However, light precipitation rates and above freezing temperatures are limiting accumulations to the highest terrain and areas with existing snowpack. Up to around an inch is possible in the higher terrain of southern Vermont, with lower totals elsewhere. This precipitation gradually falls apart as the night goes on and into the morning. Dry conditions should prevail for much of today and tonight, and there could even even be a few breaks in the clouds. A few showers may linger over parts of the ST. Lawrence Valley, but even there, conditions should be mostly dry. Temperatures will be pretty seasonable, with highs in the 40s and low 50s. These conditions will quickly melt any snow that fell overnight. A surface low moves up from the south and toward the region on Saturday. The models are finally coming into somewhat of an agreement with the setup and timing. Precipitation looks to arrive in southern areas Saturday morning and the band will progress northward during the day. Initially, the band looks to have strong dynamics and it should be able to produce a period of heavy precipitation over southern Vermont. Temperatures will be in the 30s at the onset and there should be strong dynamical cooling with this band, so most of southern Vermont should be able to see a period of snow Saturday morning. Temperatures in the immediate valleys will be marginal, so minor accumulations are possible there in the heaviest band, before snow levels rise once it moves out and temperatures rise several degrees above freezing. Any snow there would would likely melt soon after it stops falling. In the higher elevations, lower temperatures will allow for more efficient accumulations, and it may remain cold enough for the precipitation to remain as snow after the heaviest band passes through, and a few inches are becoming likely there. The snow will be heavy and wet, though there should not be enough for power outages to occur. The band will weaken as it travels northward and it will likely not make it all the way to the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures in northern areas that do not see any precipitation will make a run at 50. In northern areas that do see the precipitation, it will likely be light enough and not have enough dynamics to lower snow levels much, so any snow will likley be confined to the highest terrain. However, the onset of the precipitation should still lower temperatures by several degrees. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 346 AM EDT Friday...Upper-level low pressure will be positioned just off the US East Coast Saturday night into Sunday. Compared to yesterday, trends indicate a slight westward shift regarding an offshore surface low. Ensembles remain entrenched in their own camps with each contributing almost exclusively to a single cluster and little to others. Despite this and the overall westward track shift, ensemble means have shifted snow south or east. The reasoning for this is that as low pressure heads towards the Gulf of Maine a lack of upper level support and better vorticity on the south side of this feature will cause precipitation to gradually decay across Vermont and northern New York. Enough GEFS members maintain activity in Sunday, along with NBM probabilities of measurable precipitation in the 20- 50% range over eastern Vermont. There could still be lingering activity Saturday night and Sunday; however, dry air will encroach from the west as a deep-layer ridge builds east. This should result in a fairly pleasant Sunday afternoon with gradual clearing, decreasing north winds, and temperatures into the 50s, perhaps touching 60. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 346 AM EDT Friday...Ridging will be well established by Monday as low pressure will track along the Great Lakes. A dry warm frontal passage will take place with winds switching out of the south midday, and this should push temperatures into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds don`t increase to anything too fast as relative humidity settles to about 35-45% in the afternoon. Late Monday evening into the overnight hours, an occluded front will zip east. There may be some convective elements with marginal elevated instability. Overall, confidence is not high enough to place any thunder in the forecast. Forecast timing has sped up with the ensuing cold front racing east during the afternoon Tuesday. Cold air will rush southeast, and our high temperature may take place late Tuesday morning or early afternoon before it comes crashing down. With a strong upper low, multiple vorts tracking near the region, and sufficient moisture, scattered to numerous (30-80 PoPs) rain or snow showers will take place Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially for northern mountains. It will be a chilly Wednesday, with temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s and a brisk northwest wind. Flow remains progressive. Next Thursday appears dry as the upper low pulls away. Despite the ridging and decreasing north winds, it`ll take a bit of time to moderate this air mass. A quiet and cool day is presently on tap for next Thursday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Light precipitation will continue on and off for most of the night but rates will not be heavy enough to cause any significant visibility restrictions. Precipitation should then exit in the morning. SLK will likely see snow, and snow may mix in at MPV and RUT, but everywhere else should see only rain. Ceilings will continue to decrease overnight as the precipitation saturates the low levels. However, model guidance has been consistently too low with ceilings so far, so leaned higher in the TAFs. Overall, ceilings should generally bottom out in the MVFR range though a few periods of IFR ceilings are possible. Ceilings will rise during the day today and they will become VFR by most places in the afternoon, though they could remain in the high MVFR range at SLK and MSS. Winds will generally be relatively light during the next 24 hours. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Myskowski