477 FXUS61 KBTV 141907 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 307 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building slowly southward from Canada will bring mainly dry weather through early next week along with a gradual warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms arrives mainly from next Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front affects the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 306 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure straddling Ontario and Quebec is pushing sunnier skies into the forecast area from the north and northwest, allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s and 70s. However, southern Vermont remains cooler within the clouds this afternoon, struggling into the lower 60s. All is quiet in terms of precipitation this afternoon and evening. Mainly quiet weather continues tonight, though a shortwave with vort energy displaced to the north will bring a wave of renewed moisture, increasing clouds again in southern zones. This may trigger a pre- dawn shower across the Adirondacks, but overall chances are only about 10-30% of measurable precipitation reaching the surface. Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s by the end of the night, which is quite average for mid June in northern New York and Vermont. There is some chance of patchy fog in typical valley spots, but most likely in the valleys that received rain from last night`s showers. A larger but still relatively weak shortwave trough is expected to clip the forecast area to our north and east tomorrow, resulting in about 15-35% chance of measurable precipitation falling out of scattered showers throughout the day, mainly for the Adirondacks into central Vermont. Meanwhile, drier air will push mostly sunny skies into the St. Lawrence Valley and international border. Highs will be a few degrees below seasonal averages in the lower to mid 70s, making for a pleasant day with light and variable winds. Subtle upper level ridging will build in on Sunday night, pairing with nearby surface high in Atlantic will make for potentially the right conditions for valley fog across the forecast area. Some lingering moisture could keep clouds around in the southern half of our region, but drier, clearer air will continue to dominate in the north. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 40s and 50s Sunday night with continued light and variable winds, except perhaps over Lake Champlain, which should develop a light south-southeasterly wind late in the night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 306 PM EDT Saturday...Surface high pressure will slowly drift to the east on Monday, while a weak shortwave rides over the top of a very shallow upper ridge. Moisture will be pretty limited, so the main impacts will be just some increasing clouds. However, can`t rule out a few showers, mainly over the higher terrain, during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect south winds and highs in the mid 70s to close to 80F. We may see a little clearing Monday night, and any showers would definitely wind down overnight. Still, increasing moisture and any lingering clouds will help to keep lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s, leading into our warming trend for mid week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 306 PM EDT Saturday...Expect a warming trend as we head into mid week, along with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. A slow-moving upper trough will remain centered well to our north, with various shortwaves traversing through the west/southwest flow ahead of it. Temperatures will likely warm well into the 80s both Wednesday and Thursday while dewpoints surge into the mid and upper 60s. The result will be increasingly humid conditions, with heat index values approaching 90F both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, particularly in the Champlain and lower CT Valleys. Little relief likely Wednesday night as high dewpoints will keep lows in the 60s, potentially near 70F. Heat and humidity will also lend toward greater afternoon instability, fueling potential showers and thunderstorms. The highest potential for precipitation will be Wednesday and particularly Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west, eventually pushing through our area sometime Thursday/Thursday night. Depending on exact timing (which is differs between model solutions and is difficult to pinpoint this far out), this frontal passage and/or any pre-frontal trough could give cause for concern for the potential for stronger thunderstorms. Note that the latest GFS has SB CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg Thursday afternoon, along with 0-6km shear of 30-45 kt, which would help support stronger convection. And with PWATs approaching 2 inches, heavy rain would be a concern, as well. Still too early to nail down the details, but stay tuned for later updates. Conditions improve once the front does go by, and we could be back into a much more comfortable airmass by the weekend, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected for all sites other than RUT until 07Z-09Z Sunday when some model solutions are suggesting valley fog will develop and drop visibilities and ceilings. RUT remains in the clouds swathed across southern Vermont, and will likely have ceilings 2000-2500 feet above ground level through about 21Z today. These MVFR cigs are not expected to stay away long, however, as moisture continues to favor southern Vermont, and we could see a return of cigs 1500-2500 feet by 02Z-06Z Sunday. Confidence is not high in terms of fog elsewhere as we are not seeing good agreement amongst models and fog is not climatologically favored this time of year. We seem too far from the stationary front in the southeastern US to have that influence fog development. Cloudy skies in the southern half of the forecast area could inhibit fog as well. However, winds are looking light and variable for much of the night, so any calmer periods could get fog going. If fog were to develop tonight around 07Z-09Z, the most likely spots are SLK and MPV, with perhaps some fog in the St. Lawrence Valley as well, impacting MSS. Any potential fog would dissipate by around 11Z-15Z Sunday. RUT`s MVFR ceilings may increase to VFR levels as well around 15Z Sunday, but some projections show these low clouds lasting through 18Z Sunday. While winds will be light (mostly under 10 knots) and variable for much of the next 24 hours, we`ll also see an overall northeasterly to southeasterly component to the winds. LLWS is not a concern at this time. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Storm NEAR TERM...Storm SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Storm