632
FXUS61 KBTV 161900
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
200 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather will continue this evening, with increasing clouds and
south winds. Some light snow or freezing rain may spread into
northern areas late tonight, but any accumulation will be minimal.
Scattered to numerous showers are expected on Wednesday, mainly in
the higher terrain. A warming trend starts tomorrow and continues
into Thursday as a strong system moves to our north. This will bring
strong winds and widespread rain Thursday night. A strong cold front
will change rain over to snow on Friday, along with gusty winds and
a potential flash freeze.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 159 PM EST Tuesday...We ended up seeing a fairly pleasant
December day this afternoon with most areas seeing partly to mostly
sunny skies and temperatures in the mid/upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
are rapidly spreading into northern NY however, and this trend will
continue overnight as warm advection starts in earnest. Winds are
starting to increase as well; have noted gusts up to 20 mph in
portions of the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys.

It is these increasing winds that will keep warm air advection
ongoing tonight, particularly at higher elevations as a 40+ kt 850mb
jet moves over the region. It`s difficult to say with any certainty
how much of these strong winds will make it to lower levels as a
fairly strong inversion will develop overnight. Still, anticipate
gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible, with higher gusts along the
favored downslope areas of the northern Adirondacks and in the
Champlain Valley. We look to stay just below Wind Advisory criteria
(46 mph gusts), but wouldn`t be surprised if a few tree branches
come down, with perhaps a power outage or two as a result.

Warm advection precipitation is also possible overnight tonight,
mainly in northern areas. A few of the hi-res CAMs are showing some
light precipitation roughly 2 AM and 7 AM, which with the strong
inversion, could fall as a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing
rain. Either way, any precipitation should be light and any snow or
ice accumulation will be minimal, perhaps a glaze or a dusting.
Overnight lows will be in the upper teens to low 20s, with some
places likely holding steady or even warming a bit after midnight.

Wednesday will likely start out dry for much of the area, but expect
snow showers to spread from west to east during the late morning and
afternoon hours as low pressure moves by well to our north. The
attendant cold front will move through during the daylight hours
Wednesday, turning the gusty south winds will turn toward the west.
While gusts of 35 to 45 mph will still be possible, but this time
the strongest winds will be focused on the eastern side of the
terrain due to downsloping, so eastern Adirondacks into the western
Champlain Valley and then east of the spine of the Greens,
especially south-central portions of Vermont. There may be a
preliminary round of snow showers during the morning, but then
expect scattered activity to develop during the afternoon as low
level lapse rates steepen due to cold air advection. Some of the
afternoon showers could be briefly heavy, and with the
aforementioned gusty winds, blowing snow will be a concern, as well.
Snow accumulations will be generally 2 inches or less, with most
accumulations confined to the northern Adirondacks and the Greens.
Still, travel could be a bit tricky. Highs Wednesday will be in the
low to mid 30s, so some precipitation may fall as rain, mainly in
the Champlain Valley. Showers quickly wind down Wednesday evening.
Winds will abate as well, though they`ll start to turn back around
to the south late. Lows will range from the low teens to the low/mid
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 159 PM EST Tuesday...An active period of wx anticipated with
gusty winds, potential hydro threat, and flash freeze. Large scale
synoptic pattern shows full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the MS
River Valley at 00z Friday with deepening 992mb low pres over the
northern Great Lakes. Deep southerly flow wl result in strong warm
and moisture advection acrs the eastern CONUS on Thurs into Friday.

A period of gusty winds are likely on Thurs associated with progged
850mb winds of 55 to 60 knots, especially acrs northern NY, while
secondary surge of stronger 850mb winds of 65 to 75 knots occurs
late Thurs night into Friday morning. The challenging aspect is how
much of these winds near ridgetop wl mix to the surface, especially
with cold snow pack and secondary surge coincides with axis of
heaviest rainfall. Sounding data at BTV shows sharp inversion near
925mb with top of the mixed layer of 45 to 48 knots at 21z Thursday.
This inversion height and wind speed, combined with enhanced south
to north channeling in the central/northern CPV and western slopes
would support localized gusts 45 to 50 mph. In addition, gusts up to
50 mph wl be possible over portions of northern NY from near Malone
to Altona on Thurs aftn.

Thursday night into Friday sounding data indicates profiles become
moist adiabatic with less mixing potential as deep saturation occurs
and rain is developing. Extremely tricky with regards to wind gusts
overnight into Friday, given 925mb winds increasing 50 to 55 knots,
acrs the northern CPV and parts of northern/central VT. For now have
the highest gusts over the exposed summits and near Lake Champlain,
this wl be fine tuned as high res guidance arrives.

Temperature wl be on a roller coaster ride with NAM showing
extremely warm 925mb temps of 8-10C on downsloping side of the
northern Dacks on Thurs aftn, while eastern VT near the CT River
Valley stay near 0C. This thermal profile supports highs mid/upper
30s eastern/central VT valleys to l/m 50s near Malone, with
mid/upper 40s CPV. A very mild night is anticipated on Thurs night
associated with gusty southerly winds ahead of approaching cold
frnt. CPV wl remain in the 40s, along with downslope areas of the
northern Dacks, while east of the Greens decouple and lows drop back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s. Have trended toward the 90th NBM for
highs on Friday, especially CPV and lower CT River Valley near VSF,
due to warm southerly flow and slightly slower fropa. However, temps
drop quickly on Fri aftn with rain changing to snow by 18z over the
Dacks and 21z over the northern/central Greens above 1500 feet. Snow
levels quickly continue to fall on Friday evening, with lingering
upslope snow showers likely. The potential for a flash freeze needs
to be watched, always difficult to determine amount of moisture
leftover and how quickly bl temps fall on gusty west/northwest
winds. Trends show progged 850mb 0C line near the CPV at 18z and
thru all of VT by 21z, while the 925mb 0C line is approaching the
northern Dacks at 18z and thru all of VT by 00z Sat.

Have increased rainfall amounts given negatively tilted 700 to 500mb
trof, pws surging above 1.0" and slightly slower movement of sfc
cold frnt. This results in rainfall amounts btwn 0.75" to 1.50" with
localized amounts near 2.0" possible. This qpf, combined with warm
temps and snow melt wl cause sharp rises on streams and rivers. A
few rivers such as Ausable, Mad and Otter Creek may approach Action
Stage, but widespread river flooding is not anticipated at this
time. We will continue to monitor closely over the next 24 to 36
hours. Pops have been increased to 100% from 09z to 15z on Friday,
to cover this high confidence for measurable precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 159 PM EST Tuesday...Shower activity will gradually begin to
taper off Friday night through the day Saturday in the wake of
the cold front as brief ridging builds in, with showers
lingering the longest in the higher terrain and favored upslope
areas. Temperatures overnight Friday will continue to be on the
cold side especially after the recent warmth, with lows in the
single digits and teens. Additional chances for precipitation
will be possible over the weekend as a clipper system passes
along the border, with snowfall expected for most as
temperatures generally remain below freezing. As we head into
next week, temperatures look to remain on the cold side compared
to normal, with highs generally in the 20s and lows in the
single digits and teens. A brief period of drier weather looks
possible for Monday, with more chances for precipitation
possible towards Tuesday, but there is still plenty of
uncertainty in regards to exact timing at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the
region this afternoon, with just a few pockets of clouds 1500 to
3000 ft AGL bringing some occasional MVFR conditions to terminals. A
few light snow showers may be possible this afternoon, but there is
low confidence of any impacts to terminals so left any mention of
showers out of the forecast for now. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through most of the forecast period, with some MVFR ceilings
and precipitation expected to start moving into the region after 12Z
or so. Winds will continue to increase out of the south throughout
the forecast period. With such strong winds aloft, widespread LLWS
is expected to develop, with all terminals experiencing a period of
LLWS overnight into the morning hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA, Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV