688 FXUS61 KBTV 021415 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY 1015 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Any remaining showers will move out by mid morning. After, dry weather should generally prevail through midweek, and it will be accompanied by a drastic warming trend. By Wednesday, temperatures will be approaching record highs in some areas. The next shower and thunder chances are late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1013 AM EDT Monday...Clearing continues from west to east across the area and showers have completely moved out of the region. No big changes for the first morning update. Previous Discussion...A broken line of showers is currently situated southwest to northeast from the southern Champlain Valley into north central Vermont. The line will continue to push southeast and it will be out of the region by mid morning. Clouds will clear quickly behind this line so the day should be mostly sunny. Due to cold air aloft, diurnal heating will cause cumulus development in the afternoon. An isolated spot shower cannot be completely ruled out, but with a very dry layer in the lower atmosphere, anything that forms will likely not reach the ground. Highs will be in the 60s to around 70 with low humidity. Downsloping could cause the eastern Adirondacks to be a couple degrees warmer. Despite the warmer temperatures, deep mixing to around 5,000 feet will create a tall area of dry adiabatic lapse rates, so mountain temperatures will be much colder. Highs there will likely be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Skies clear once the sun goes down and winds should go mostly calm, and this will set the stage for decent radiational cooling conditions tonight. However, there may be just enough boundary layer wind to prevent the surface from completely decoupling. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s for most places. Pockets of very isolated frost are possible in the coldest hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Temperatures will warm quickly on Wednesday as flow becomes more southerly, and they should rise into the 70s to around 80. Westerly flow will likely again cause some additional warming along the eastern Adirondacks from downsloping, so some of the lower elevations there could approach the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 348 AM EDT Monday...Previous discussion for this period still holds...Quiet weather is expected for mid-week as upper level ridging and surface high pressure develop over the Northeast while an exiting mid/upper level trough closes off and stalls east of the benchmark. This allows for a longer residence time of the ridge, supplying some much needed dry conditions and seasonally warm to above normal temperatures. 850/925mb temperatures +15-17C/+21-23C on Wednesday which supports 80s to perhaps a few L90s but HRRR Vert Integrated Smoke shows dense smoke layer moving across area late Tuesday- Tuesday night on westerly winds aloft but then high shifts east with more of a WSW return flow into Wednesday, but based on some smoke models...the smoke layer will likely still be prevalent for much of the day. The good news is most of the smoke should stay aloft with limited impacts and it will likely keep temperatures from reaching their potential but still well into the 80s.Attm...after coordinating with neighboring offices will leave out haze in the weather as horizontal vsby shouldn`t be affected, but the sky will look milky/hazy. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 348 AM EDT Monday...By Thursday morning...the upper ridge axis should be across eastern VT or points east allowing a series of shortwave troughs to traverse the region through the end of the week. Increasing moisture ahead of a weak surface cold front noted by progged PWATs near 1.5" combined with surface temps in the U70s to M80s should produce sufficient instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Thursday into Thursday night. Flow is WSW parallel to weak cold front and with the first shortwave lifting northeast away from the area and upper low still east, would expect front to stall across the area until another shortwave pushes it eastward. It`s Friday and Saturday that look still uncertain as the timing and strength of future shortwaves will determine if it`s just instability shra/tsra on Friday (GFS) awaiting a surface low for Saturday or more of a weak surface low along the boundary with numerous activity late Friday-Friday night (ECMWF/Canadian) with still some instability -shra Saturday as northern stream shortwave axis rotates across the area. Ensembles tend to blend it all together but are leaning on the latter. WSW parallel flow along front rich PWATs and 250mb RR Entrance across Quebec suggests potential training activity once again with some potential lift due to close proximity of 250mb RRQ across Quebec. It still looks like it will be dry and seasonable on Sunday. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Low clouds and showers exiting eastern VT as we speak with clearing behind it. Therefore VFR conditions with FEW-SKC largely from 15z onward. SSW winds under 10 kts will become WNW around 10 kts with gusts to 15-16 kts but then diminishing to light aft 00z and continuing thru the period. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Neiles SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW