980
FXUS61 KBTV 150232
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
932 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of southern Vermont
  on Friday, where fire weather conditions are expected.
* Otherwise, continued dry conditions are expected into the
  weekend while temperatures remain seasonably mild.
* Appreciable rain is unlikely until the latter part of next
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 926 PM EST Thursday...The main adjustment with this
update was to tweak the hourly temperature trend to better
reflect the current temperatures. Most locations have already
dropped below freezing, with parts of central Vermont dropping a
bit faster than the forecast had, with temperatures already in
the mid 20s. Otherwise, no other changes were needed and the
current forecast remains in good shape.

Previous Discussion...A Red Flag Warning is in effect
tomorrow for our south central Green Mountain fire weather zone
and adjacent lower Connecticut River Valley. This is the first
one issued by our office during the fall season since at least
18 years, suggestive of how unusually dry it has been in this
region. Thankfully the northern half of Vermont and New York
have seen just enough recent rainfall to have mitigate concerns
there. See more in the Fire Weather section of the AFD.

Otherwise, quiet sensible weather will continue through tomorrow as
a compact Omega block continues to with closed upper level lows
to our southwest and east battling each other, leaving us in a
narrow ridge. The pattern will evolve a bit tonight into
tomorrow as the upper low to our southwest migrates to our south
and allows the one to our northeast to pivot back to the west.
As a result, our flow will become increasingly northerly
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will be stronger in eastern
Vermont relative to areas to the west, where top of the mixed
layer winds tomorrow support wind gusts peaking in the 25 to 30
MPH range, with gusts more in the 10 to 20 MPH farther west.

Aside from the breezes, it will be another seasonable day with
temperatures rising well above freezing after a chilly start.
Highs look to be within a few degrees of what we saw today. Some
lower level moisture finally may pinwheel back into northeastern
Vermont such that skies trend cloudy tomorrow night, but given
the continued trends on the cloud cover and precipitation being
farther north and east, PoPs were cut back further with chances
largely under 10% through the period areawide. The increasing
winds aloft during this period will help limit cooling, with
milder overnight temperatures perhaps staying in the 30s for
much of the night in most spots in Vermont and northern New York
valley locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Dry conditions will prevail Saturday with
expectations that low pressure will be deflected well east of Vermont.
Westerly winds will turn northwesterly with some cold air
advection increasing as high pressure impinges upon the
departing low. Breezes with gusts to 20 mph are currently
anticipated, but could edge higher if gradients tighten further.
This could have implications on fire weather conditions,
especially east of the Green Mountains and for southern Vermont
where drought conditions are pervasive. Highs Saturday will be
slightly above seasonal averages in the upper 40s to low 50s
cooling off more overnight with lows in the 20s away from Lake
Champlain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Conditions remain dry through Monday with
warmer than average temperatures for Sunday. An approaching Clipper-
type wave will pass by the region with its low center well displaced
in northern Canada. This set up is not great for large amounts of
precipitation, but some showers should move through the northern
tier counties adjacent to the Canadian border and along upslope
areas of the Adirondacks and Greens. QPF will likely be limited to
amounts less than 0.1". More probable will be a period of gusty
winds as models agree that the passing low and surface front will
have tight temperature and pressure gradients. Despite a tight
temperature gradient, consensus favors a rebounding ridge keeping
temperatures running around to slightly above averages.

The next chances of appreciable rain may come over the latter half
of next week with models continuing to cut off an upper low over the
Great Lakes region with a occluded front potentially pushing through
the North Country. It should be noted that models continue to delay
this feature which is in line with model biases to move deepening
systems too rapidly. Still, some variety of rain will become more
probable moving into the second half of next week. Otherwise,
increasing southerly flow ahead of this system would promote warming
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail
over the next 24 hours with some high clouds streaming into the
region. Winds will generally be light and variable overnight,
generally 5 kts or less with the exception of KMSS where
northwesterly winds around 10 knots will continue for most of
the night. Towards 12Z winds will become more northwesterly,
with gusts near 15 kts possible towards the afternoon. While
flight conditions will generally be VFR, there is the potential
for some lake-effect clouds to develop off of Lake Champlain
which may impact KBTV with some lower MVFR ceilings for a few
hours between 09Z and 15Z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Per coordination with fire specialists for fuels and the expected
weather conditions for tomorrow, a Red Flag Warning has been issued
for the Southern Greens and Lower Connecticut River Valley for
Friday.

The most critical time period appear to be from mid morning
through early afternoon when overlap of gusty winds near 25 MPH and
low relative humidity below 30% are most likely to occur. Greatest
coverage of these conditions are favored across central Windsor
County near and east of Route 100, shifting eastward through the
late morning hours. The combination of low relative humidity and
gusty winds will promote increased potential for rapid fire spread
with any fires that may start.

Additionally, dry fuels in the western Champlain Valley along
with another period of relative humidity values below 30% may
pose fire weather concerns, especially along the I-87 corridor
in New York. Here, winds do not look as strong as in Vermont and
antecedent dryness is not as extreme.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for VTZ034-035.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
FIRE WEATHER...Team BTV