779
FXUS61 KBTV 092339
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of showers will move through tonight into tomorrow morning,
with the potential for a couple embedded thunderstorms. A second
line will likely pass through in the afternoon and evening
associated with the actual cold front. Drier weather will prevail
for the rest of the week, though there will still be a few shower
chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 721 PM EDT Monday...No major changes needed to the
forecast this evening, just a few minor adjustments to better
reflect latest observations. Some shower activity has made it into
the St. Lawrence Valley this evening, with additional shower
activity expected through the night into tomorrow.

Previous Discussion...A few sprinkles are possible for the rest
of the afternoon but it should be mostly dry. Air quality has begun
to improve, particularly over northern New York, where southerly
flow has been able to push out the smoke. Elsewhere the improvement
has been less significant. This is likely because the flow is
southeasterly under a low inversion, and the upstream air is still
pretty smoky. It will likely not leave until the inversion mixes out
and the flow goes southerly. A line of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will move through from west to east tonight into
tomorrow morning. It will be held up over the St. Lawrence Valley
this evening so that area should see the most rain. However, there
is still not much in the way of a flood threat. Any instability with
this line should be elevated. A second line of showers and
thunderstorms looks to form in the afternoon and evening associated
with the actual cold front. This will be a high shear low CAPE
scenario, and the CAPE looks minimal for anything severe, though it
will need to be watched if more clearing can occur before it moves
through. It will likely weaken east of the Greens where a marine
modified airmass will still be in place. Behind the front,
temperatures will fall back into the 50s for most places for Tuesday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 327 PM EDT Monday...A brief period of widely scattered showers
are possible late Weds into Weds night, with primary focus acrs our
northern/central cwa. Crnt probability of strong or severe wx during
the short term is <15%, given the minimal instability and timing of
s/w energy. NAM/GFS are both in decent agreement with embedded s/w
energy approaching the northern SLV by 00z Thurs and quickly moving
along the International Border area thru 06z. This energy, combined
with secondary boundary wl help to produce a broken line of widely
scattered showers btwn 22z and 06z Weds/Thurs. Progged instability
shows sfc based CAPE values btwn 250-500 J/kg prior to sunset/ahead
of boundary with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer shear present. The low
level wind profiles suggest a few gusty showers would be possible
within the heavier convective elements on Weds evening. Weds looks
to be the warmest day in the short/long term with highs mid 70s to
lower 80s, with lows dropping back into lower 50s SLK/NEK to near
60F CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 327 PM EDT Monday...No significant or widespread hazardous wx
is anticipated in the long term portion of the fcst attm. Large
scale pattern suggests generally west to northwest flow aloft, which
should keep the heat/humidity suppressed to our south, along with
the higher instability and moisture parameters. For Thursday into
Friday a 1026mb high pres wl be nosing south from central Canada
into our cwa. This should result in classic North Country summertime
chamber of commerce weather with comfortable temps/humidity and cool
night with mostly sunny skies. Diurnally/trrn driven cumulus clouds
are expected as convective temps are reached during the aftn hours.
Given the dry airmass in place, anticipating large diurnal swings in
temps from cool nights in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s to daytime
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heading into the weekend pattern
the spread increases, especially with regards to placement of
boundary and potential pops/qpf. Latest trends have been a bit
further north with potential for light precip on Saturday as high
pres is shifting toward eastern Maine faster. Crnt dynamics aloft
look weak, while weak area of low pres develops along the boundary,
which is progged to be draped somewhere acrs the Mid Atlantic/NE
CONUS. Soundings would suggest precip initially having difficulties
reaching the ground, given the deep dry layer in place and minimal
forcing/lift present. I have kept pops in the low chc range for
Saturday and as confidence increases/decreases in future packages
these can be adjusted accordingly. Temps stay on the cooler side of
normal heading into the weekend, especially if more clouds are
present on Saturday. Lows generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s and
highs mostly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions
prevail across the region this evening with an area of showers
slowly moves into the region, with ceilings gradually lowering
throughout the overnight hours. While most terminals can expect
MVFR ceilings, some IFR ceilings may be possible at KMPV and
locations east of the Green Mountains. The best chances of
precipitation tonight will be across northern New York, with
additional showers expected throughout the day tomorrow. Some
visibilities reductions will be possible within heavier showers.
Winds will generally remain southerly throughout the forecast
period, generally 5 to 12 knots, with increasing gusts tomorrow
afternoon. A brief period of LLWS shear will be possible this
morning, generally 08Z to 12Z, primarily across northern New
York terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kremer