779 FXUS61 KBTV 092339 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 739 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A line of showers will move through tonight into tomorrow morning, with the potential for a couple embedded thunderstorms. A second line will likely pass through in the afternoon and evening associated with the actual cold front. Drier weather will prevail for the rest of the week, though there will still be a few shower chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 721 PM EDT Monday...No major changes needed to the forecast this evening, just a few minor adjustments to better reflect latest observations. Some shower activity has made it into the St. Lawrence Valley this evening, with additional shower activity expected through the night into tomorrow. Previous Discussion...A few sprinkles are possible for the rest of the afternoon but it should be mostly dry. Air quality has begun to improve, particularly over northern New York, where southerly flow has been able to push out the smoke. Elsewhere the improvement has been less significant. This is likely because the flow is southeasterly under a low inversion, and the upstream air is still pretty smoky. It will likely not leave until the inversion mixes out and the flow goes southerly. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through from west to east tonight into tomorrow morning. It will be held up over the St. Lawrence Valley this evening so that area should see the most rain. However, there is still not much in the way of a flood threat. Any instability with this line should be elevated. A second line of showers and thunderstorms looks to form in the afternoon and evening associated with the actual cold front. This will be a high shear low CAPE scenario, and the CAPE looks minimal for anything severe, though it will need to be watched if more clearing can occur before it moves through. It will likely weaken east of the Greens where a marine modified airmass will still be in place. Behind the front, temperatures will fall back into the 50s for most places for Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 327 PM EDT Monday...A brief period of widely scattered showers are possible late Weds into Weds night, with primary focus acrs our northern/central cwa. Crnt probability of strong or severe wx during the short term is <15%, given the minimal instability and timing of s/w energy. NAM/GFS are both in decent agreement with embedded s/w energy approaching the northern SLV by 00z Thurs and quickly moving along the International Border area thru 06z. This energy, combined with secondary boundary wl help to produce a broken line of widely scattered showers btwn 22z and 06z Weds/Thurs. Progged instability shows sfc based CAPE values btwn 250-500 J/kg prior to sunset/ahead of boundary with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer shear present. The low level wind profiles suggest a few gusty showers would be possible within the heavier convective elements on Weds evening. Weds looks to be the warmest day in the short/long term with highs mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows dropping back into lower 50s SLK/NEK to near 60F CPV. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 327 PM EDT Monday...No significant or widespread hazardous wx is anticipated in the long term portion of the fcst attm. Large scale pattern suggests generally west to northwest flow aloft, which should keep the heat/humidity suppressed to our south, along with the higher instability and moisture parameters. For Thursday into Friday a 1026mb high pres wl be nosing south from central Canada into our cwa. This should result in classic North Country summertime chamber of commerce weather with comfortable temps/humidity and cool night with mostly sunny skies. Diurnally/trrn driven cumulus clouds are expected as convective temps are reached during the aftn hours. Given the dry airmass in place, anticipating large diurnal swings in temps from cool nights in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s to daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heading into the weekend pattern the spread increases, especially with regards to placement of boundary and potential pops/qpf. Latest trends have been a bit further north with potential for light precip on Saturday as high pres is shifting toward eastern Maine faster. Crnt dynamics aloft look weak, while weak area of low pres develops along the boundary, which is progged to be draped somewhere acrs the Mid Atlantic/NE CONUS. Soundings would suggest precip initially having difficulties reaching the ground, given the deep dry layer in place and minimal forcing/lift present. I have kept pops in the low chc range for Saturday and as confidence increases/decreases in future packages these can be adjusted accordingly. Temps stay on the cooler side of normal heading into the weekend, especially if more clouds are present on Saturday. Lows generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s and highs mostly in the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening with an area of showers slowly moves into the region, with ceilings gradually lowering throughout the overnight hours. While most terminals can expect MVFR ceilings, some IFR ceilings may be possible at KMPV and locations east of the Green Mountains. The best chances of precipitation tonight will be across northern New York, with additional showers expected throughout the day tomorrow. Some visibilities reductions will be possible within heavier showers. Winds will generally remain southerly throughout the forecast period, generally 5 to 12 knots, with increasing gusts tomorrow afternoon. A brief period of LLWS shear will be possible this morning, generally 08Z to 12Z, primarily across northern New York terminals. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Isolated SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Kremer