841
FXUS61 KALY 110815
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
415 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow will diminish this morning.  Low
pressure will approach from the mid Atlantic Coast late this
afternoon into tonight bringing a mixture of rain and snow back into
eastern New York and western New England late tonight through
Saturday morning with the greatest accumulations over the higher
terrain south and east of Albany, as below normal temperatures
continue.  Fair and dry weather returns Saturday night into Sunday
with temperatures moderating to seasonable levels to close the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

- Below normal temperatures continue today with light rain and
  snow diminishing by the late morning.

Discussion:

As of 415 am EDT...Low pressure continues to weaken lifting
northeast of western NY into the eastern Great Lakes. High
pressure is situated near or east of Nova Scotia. Light snow
continues over the higher terrain with a mixture rain mixed with
some snow in the Hudson/Mohawk Valley. Some weak isentropic
lift lingers northeast of the warm front over the Mid Atlantic
States. Any additional snow accumulation over the higher terrain
will be an inch or so, with a slushy coating to a a few tenths
on the grassy surfaces in the valleys.

It will be mostly cloudy and cool in the late morning through
the afternoon, as attention shifts to developing low pressure
over the Piedmont Region into the Mid Atlantic states, as
short-wave energy rounds the base of the mid and upper level
trough east of the MS River Valley. This lull in the pcpn will
last most of the afternoon. Clouds will dominate south of I-90
with perhaps some breaks over the northern most zones. It will
be cool with clouds and the east/southeast onshore flow. We did
introduce some slight or low chance PoPs for the western most
zones (western Dacks, western Mohawk Valley and eastern
Catskills) in the late afternoon before sunset with the residual
inverted trough over w-central NY and PA. Highs today were
lowered a few degrees below the NBM with mid and upper 40s in
the valleys and over the hills with mid 30s to lower 40s over
the mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance (30-60%) of at least 2 inches of snow
  across the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills of
  CT and the southern Greens, VT late tonight through Sat.

- Winter Weather Advisories issued midnight tonight to 2 pm Sat
  for the Berkshires, and eastern Catskills of western Greene
  and Ulster Counties.

- Medium to high confidence temps moderate closer to seasonable
  levels to close the weekend.

Discussion:

Impressive mid and upper level trough continues over the east
Coast with low pressure moving from the Mid Atlantic corridor to
near the Delmarva Region by 06Z/SAT. A region of upper level
diffluence set up over NY and New England. The sfc low
strengthens near the left front quad of a mid and upper level
jet streak. Atlantic moisture is tapped ahead of the wave with
pcpn building back in from south to north gradually prior to
midnight south of I-90.The slower progression is noted on the
HREFS/3-km HRRR/NAMnest/ARW-WRF. The h850-700 FGEN increases in
the northwest quadrant of the storm especially southeast of the
Capital Region, northern Catskills and southern VT. Strong
upward vertical coupled with dynamical cooling will allow
periods of rain and snow to blossom south of the Capital Region
initially. The higher terrain will have the best chance for snow
early on, especially above 1000 ft. We were concerned about the
heavy wet snow potential highlighted in the CAMs with Snow to
Liquid Ratios (SLRs) of 6-8:1. SLRs may lower closer to 3:5-1
in the valleys. Total QPF sharply drops off further north and
west during the day with one to two tenths over the northwest
zones and as much as a half to three quarters of an inch over
the southeast extreme. Due to wet bulb cooling lows drop off
into the upper 20s to mid 30s Fri night/Sat morning.

Heavy wet snow (pcpn snow rates 0.5 to as high as 1"/hr)
continue through daybreak especially along the southern VT,
Capital District, northern Catskills corridor. The potential was
greatest for 2-6" over the eastern Catskills of western Greene
and western Ulster Counties for a Winter Wx Advisory due to the
strong forcing and east/southeast flow orographic enhancement.
1-2" may occur on the grassy surface in the mid Hudson Valley
into the Capital Region. The Berkshires (criteria is 3") looks
good for at least 2-4", and an Advisory was raised until 2 pm
with some sleet maybe mixing in. NW CT is tricky and we have
1-3" over the Litchfield Hills and 1-2" in the valley. Similar
total for the Taconics. Southern VT we were less confident for
an advisory yet, and have 2-4" with some high peak totals of 4"
or so. Some sleet or spotty freezing rain may mix in. WPC WWD
guidance removed all the ice, most the guidance shows isothermal
soundings or some sleet moving in late Sat. Overall, Advisories
in place for the eastern Catskills and Berkshires and we will
monitor for any additions later today. Location north and west
of Albany may only get a slushy coating to an inch with the
Helderbergs and the Schoharie Valley maybe getting 1-4".

The pcpn lightens in the afternoon for some light
rain/snow/sleet in the mid and upper deformation zone. As temps
warm on Sat pm, rain/snow mix will change back to rain in lower
elevations with a light rain/snow mix in the mountains with
maybe pockets of sleet. Max temps will be 10-15 degrees below
normal with 30s to around 40F over western New England and the
southern Dacks/eastern Catskills with 40-45F readings in the
valleys.

Saturday night the trend continue for the rain/snow or a brief
sleet/freezing rain to end early on. Mostly cloudy and cold
conditions continue with the coastal wave moving east of the
Gulf of Maine. Some ridging will attempt to build in from
Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Lows will range from the upper 20s
to around 30F over the mtns to lower/mid 30s in the valleys.

Low and mid level ridging builds in from the west, as a sfc
anticyclone ridges in from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Region
over NY and New England. Temps rise close to seasonal levels
with partly/mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the mid 50s in
the lower elevations and mid 40s to lower 50s over the hills and
mtns. Fair and dry weather continues Sun night with lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Seasonably mild Monday and Tuesday before a strong cold front
Tuesday night ushers in below normal temperatures, blustery winds,
and additional rain and higher elevation snow showers for Wednesday.

Discussion:

We begin the long term on Monday when broad upper level ridging and
subsidence expands across the Northeast supporting dry conditions.
As the upper level ridge axis slides to our east, southwest flow
aloft will promote warm air advection ahead of an approaching warm
nose. Thus, we finally will have a break from the string of below
normal temperatures on Monday as we trend back seasonable
temperatures for mid-April. Chances for rain, however, return by
Monday night as a compact/mature closed low in southern Ontario
heads eastward dragging its attendant occluded boundary and triple
point through the Northeast. The mild air mass ahead of the forcing
will support mainly rain as the p-type Monday night. Showers
diminish in coverage by Tuesday morning but as the closed low tracks
eastward, its trough axis swings through the Northeast sending a
sharp cold front through our area. Not only will this send a surge
of cold air advection back into the region (850hPa isotherms nearly
2 standard deviations below normal per the NAEFS) but gusty
northwest flow and moist/cyclonic flow aloft will also support
additional rain and even snow showers for the higher terrain
including lake enhanced and upslope snow showers across the southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens. Probabilistic guidance shows 50 to
70% chance for west-northwest wind gusts to exceed 30mph with the
highest values across the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into
western MA. Temperatures struggling to rise out of the 40s combined
with blustery winds will make it feel quite chilly on Wednesday. In
fact, probabilistic guidance indicates under 20% chance for highs to
exceed 50F, except in the mid-Hudson Valley where values range 30-
50%.

Rain and higher elevation snow showers diminish Wed night as upper
level troughing exits into the Canadian Maritime and shortwave
ridging builds in. Winds weaken Wed night but with the chilly air
mass still in place, confidence is growing for temperatures to fall
near or slight below freezing with the highest confidence in higher
terrain areas. Dry conditions return on Thursday with temperatures
trending milder and returning back to seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06 UTC/Saturday...Rain or rain/snow mix showers tonight
at ALB and GFL with wet snow at PSF continuing. POU remains
mainly dry although rain showers will likely fall at least
intermittently. Depending on precip intensity, rain can briefly
turn to wet snow at ALB and GFL through 10/11 UTC this morning
while PSF likely remains all wet snow. During any steadier
periods of snow, IFR vis is likely. IFR cigs will persist at
ALB, PSF, and GFL but potentially occasional improve to MVFR so
included TEMPO groups. Mainly VRF cigs for POU but occasional
MVFR cigs/vis possible and included TEMPO group. Rain and snow
exits to the north and east away from the terminals this morning
mainly by 11 to 14 UTC. Cigs improve to VFR by 15 - 18 UTC with
even breaks of sun. Cigs will fall again towards the end of the
TAF period as our next batch of precipitation approaches.

Winds remain east to southeast through the end of the TAF period
around 5 kts or so for all sites.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ058-063.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speciale