416 FXUS61 KALY 101758 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 158 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will bring periods of rain across portions of eastern New York and western New England through the early afternoon, then a line of showers and thunderstorms into the early evening hours. Much of the mid to late week period will be dry with above normal temperatures on Wednesday trending back below normal by Friday behind another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: - A line of showers and thunderstorms will push across the region this afternoon into the early evening which could bring some strong to locally damaging winds. Discussion: As of 1145 AM EDT, Initial batch of rain continues to progress eastward across eastern New York and western New England. This activity should finally depart to the east by the early afternoon hours. Breaks of sun are beginning to develop across western areas and just west of our area as a broken line of showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the main cold front. This line will cross the region this afternoon through the early evening between the hours of 2-8pm. PoPs have been adjusted to account for the timing of this line as it crosses. While CAPE values will be minimal (up to 750 J/kg), shear could be strong enough to support some strong to locally damaging winds. The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has expanded northward now extending into portions of the Upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont. Many locations should be able to break for an hour or two of sun this afternoon allowing temperatures to briefly rise into the lower to mid-70s, except upper 60s across portions of the Adirondacks and western New England. However, temps will wet bulb back into the 60s along and behind the line of storms. Previous Discussion: As a cold/occluded front tracks east, additional isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early/mid afternoon hours across the SW Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley, and mid/late afternoon across the upper Hudson Valley and Lake George/Capital Region extending into southern VT and south/west into the Berkshires/ eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley/NW CT closer to sunset. Still low confidence regarding severe potential, as there remains strong deep layer shear with H500 winds 35-50 KT, however instability remains uncertain with HREF mean MU CAPES generally peaking at 500-750 J/kg within the Hudson River Valley this afternoon. HREF probs for SBCAPES >1000 J/kg reach 30-60% within portions of the Hudson River Valley, maximized between 4-7 PM across the Capital Region. Model soundings also suggest deepening layer of dry mid level air and some mid level capping ~H600, so although coverage of stronger thunderstorms looks limited, can not rule out isolated strong/damaging wind gusts later this afternoon, especially within any bowing segments that develop within any smaller lines/clusters, with best potential, albeit limited, within the Hudson River Valley extending into portions of western New England. SPC has added a Marginal Risk area for severe thunderstorms for most areas near and south of I-90 for today. High temps should reach the lower/mid 70s within valley areas later this afternoon, although could be even warmer should breaks in the clouds develop earlier. Higher terrain areas mainly 65-70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Gusty west/northwest winds (up to 35 mph) Thursday afternoon within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires. Discussion: Some lingering showers/thunderstorms through around 10 PM across southern VT, western MA, and perhaps the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy tonight with patchy fog developing, some of which could become dense. Lows in the 40s across the SW Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley to lower/mid 50s elsewhere. Although most areas south of I-90 should remain dry Wednesday/Wednesday night, a secondary cold front and passing upper level disturbance north of the region could allow for isolated showers/thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours north of I-90. Otherwise, breezy and seasonably warm with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and lows Wednesday night in the 40s and 50s. Mainly sunny and breezy for Thursday with deep mixing potentially allowing wind gusts of up to 35 mph, especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires where 01Z/10 NBM probs for 24-hour peak wind gusts >30 mph through 2 AM Fri range from 40-90%. Highs mainly in the 70s, except lower/mid 80s across the mid Hudson Valley, and 60s across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks. Isolated showers may develop late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night for areas mainly south of I-90 as secondary front stalls and a weak disturbance tracks along the boundary, otherwise partly cloudy and cool with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A dry start to the extended forecast period Friday will yield to yet another, at least partially, wet weekend as zonal flow aloft is met with nearby high pressure at the surface. Friday will also be the warmest day of the period, with highs in the mid/upper 60s to mid/upper 70s. Rain chances increase beginning Friday night as the aforementioned surface high slides off to the southeast and an upper-level disturbance and attendant surface wave approach the region from the west. Southeasterly to northeasterly flow across the region will advect cool, moist Atlantic air into Eastern New York and western New England, allowing showers to develop regionwide as the coupled disturbances progress eastward and forcing for ascent is reinforced by a stalled surface boundary to the south. Showers taper off Saturday evening into Saturday night forcing the brief return to dry conditions. However, with a surface low and upper shortwave looking to track into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region Sunday afternoon, rain chances increase once again for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the period with widespread 60s anticipated. A slight warming trend is then expected Sunday into Monday with highs rising into the upper 60s to mid 70s by Monday. Lows throughout the period will generally be in the 40s (terrain) and 50s (valleys) to start, but by Monday night widespread 50s to near 60 is expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR start the TAF period. Conditions should continue to improve to VFR before a line of showers and thunderstorms develop and move through airfields between 21z and 11/01z. A few storms could produce wind gusts up to 30 knots and heavy downpours. As the nature of these storms are going to quickly move through, kept mention of thunderstorm activity in TEMPO groups and VFR conditions in the prevailing. By 11/01z, thunderstorm activity ends and a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions due to potential fog development especially at KGFL. Kept mention of fog development at KPOU and KGFL in TEMPO groups for the 03z to 09z. VFR conditions are in store for all airfields for beyond 11/12z. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Rathbun NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Webb