745
FXUS61 KALY 090218
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1018 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and crisp autumn weather continues through Friday.
Lake-effect rain showers spread across areas north of Albany
tomorrow, with dry weather expected elsewhere through the remainder
of the workweek. Next chances for wet weather arrive late this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...The line of lake effect clouds and light showers are
continuing to track eastward further into the region, though the
most consistent coverage of both is beginning to break up over
portions of the Southwest Adirondacks with water vapor imagery
showing some drier air intruding into the back of it. Scattered
showers will continue to track eastward and break apart as they
gain distance from the lakes. While much of the region won`t see
more than a trace, portions of the Southwest Adirondacks,
western Mohawk Valley, and Eastern Catskills could see some
measurable amounts upwards of about 0.05 - 0.1". With the
forecast remaining on track, only minor adjustments were made to
keep consistency with latest obs and trends. All else remains
unchanged with additional details in the previous discussion
below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low remains centered over southern Quebec with
lake-effect rain showers extending downwind of Lake Ontario into
the southwestern Adirondacks and adjacent western Mohawk Valley.
Rain accumulations will continue to be light, with up to a
tenth of an inch of rain possible. Shower coverage will
decrease overnight following the loss of daytime heating.
Enhanced cloud cover with partly to mostly cloudy skies will
continue across much of the region through tonight, while some
areas of clearer skies may develop south and east of Albany.

Temperatures remain seasonably cool, with afternoon highs
expected today in the upper 40s to mid 50s in high terrain and
upper 50s to mid 60s at lower elevations. Slightly cloudier
skies may inhibit radiational cooling enough tonight to see
slightly milder conditions, however overnight lows are still
expected to fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region.
Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in the highest terrain areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned upper low will remain anchored over southern
Quebec while shortwave impulses and a series of weak surface troughs
progress cyclonically about its periphery. Chances for showers,
especially downwind of Lake Ontario across the southwestern
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, will spread eastward,
generally across areas north of I-88 and I-90, through tomorrow
evening. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist across much
of the region, while increasing sun breaks may occur south near
to the I-84 corridor. As temperatures cool overnight, the first
few snowflakes of the season may mix in across the high peaks
of the Adirondacks, while rain showers are expected elsewhere.

Upper toughing finally exits eastward on Thursday while broad
upper ridging and surface high pressure build in from the west.
Dry weather will return by Thursday morning. Skies trend
clearer through the day, with largely clear conditions returning
to the entire region by Thursday night.

Temperatures continue to trend cooler through the period on
persistent breezy west-northwest flow and cold advection. Highs
Wednesday only reach the upper 40s to mid 50s in high terrain
and upper 50s to mid 60s at lower elevations, before falling
another few degrees Thursday into the 40s and 50s across the
region. Overnight lows remain in the 30s to low 40s both
Wednesday and Thursday night with areas of frost possible
outside of the warmer river valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper-level ridging persists Friday through Saturday night,
with gusty west-northwest winds finally beginning to abate on
Saturday. A compact upper shortwave passing to the north may
allow for rain showers to reach the southern Adirondacks Friday
night, with dry weather expected otherwise. Temperatures
briefly moderate to more seasonable levels Friday and Saturday,
when highs will reach into the 50s and 60s, while lows remain in
the 30s and 40s across the region Friday and Saturday nights.

The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives Sunday into
Monday as a deep positively-tilted trough digs over the Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. While the associated surface
low tracks into southern Quebec, its trailing cold front will
transit the region sometime Sunday night. Behind the frontal
passage, potent cold advection looks to result in temperatures
cooling well below normal Sunday into the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this evening with the expectation for persistence
throughout the 00z TAF period. While skies at all terminals are
primarily clear as of the latest ob, infrared satellite shows
a band of lake effect clouds streaming into the region which
will gradually create ceilings over the next few hours. Heights
will remain VFR. There is a possibility that KGFL deviates from
VFR conditions shortly before sunrise tomorrow due to light
mist/fog. Conditions would likely only worsen to the MVFR
level. There is also a slight chance for some light, lake effect
showers to cross into the KALB and KGFL terminal overnight.
However, there will be no impact to VFR conditions. Winds
throughout this cycle will prevail primarily out of the west to
southwest at maximum speeds of 10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Gant/Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Gant