932 FXUS65 KSLC 111020 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 420 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the area today will result in very warm temperatures. A strong, but largely dry cold front will cross the region later Saturday into Sunday, bringing a return to more seasonal temperatures over northern Utah. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...An upper ridge is in place over Utah this morning, its axis currently overhead. As this ridge shifts east through the day, southwesterly flow will increase. This, combined with a warm airmass under the ridge (H7 temperatures reach between +7C along the Idaho border this afternoon to +12C across central/southern Utah), will result in a continued warming trend. Most valleys across Utah will see highs today in the upper 70s to mid 80s, around 90 across lower Washington County and Glen Canyon. These values reflect anomalous warmth of 15-25 degrees above normal for this time of year. There is a good chance for temperature records to be broken at a number of sites today. The warmth will not last, as a cold front associated with a splitting trough is expected to push into northern Utah late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon, reaching southern Utah tomorrow night into Sunday. Temperatures across northern Utah will cool up to around 10 degrees compared to today, while southern and central Utah, being mostly ahead of the cold front tomorrow afternoon, will see highs only cooling around 5 degrees or less. South winds will increase more tomorrow ahead of the front, strongest across west-central and southwest Utah. However, models have continued to trend a bit weaker with the prefrontal winds, with less than a 10% chance of reaching advisory criteria. This is due to the parent northern branch trough pulling farther north over Idaho, with the cold front not as strong as models had been indicating earlier in the week. Additionally, this front continues to look fairly dry, with little if any precipitation expected. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...By Sunday morning, a cooler airmass will exist over Utah and southwest Wyoming as a broad trough continues to scrape by the region. For the northern half of the area, temperatures will return to right around the climatological normal for this time of year while the southern half of Utah remains about 5-10 degrees above average. Limited moisture will exist in the lower levels on Sunday, bringing only a low chance (20% or less) of light showers over the high terrain of central Utah during the afternoon on Sunday. No significant weather impacts are expected. The broad trough quickly departs to the east through late Sunday with a ridge building into the region during the overnight hours into Monday. This sets the stage for another week of well above normal temperatures across the forecast area. Temperatures quickly rise day by day through Tuesday across the northern area, with more limited warming in the southern area as a potential weak low progresses through the Southwest. Would anticipate at least a low to medium probability (20-40% chance) of seeing convection developing over the high terrain and adjacent valley areas during the afternoon hours on Tuesday as this feature progresses through the area. Thinking that the overall risk of flash flooding will be low as moisture in the lower levels will be lacking... but low-to-mid level flow is generally less than 20kts... so isolated cases cannot be ruled out. Will need to monitor the threat for strong outflow winds as well since sufficient lower level moisture will be lacking. Moving through the remainder of the week, expect further warming on Wednesday and Thursday... especially across the southern half of Utah. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail through the operational period under increasing high level cloud cover. South winds will remain in place through much of the day today, with northerly flow attempting to regain control after 21-22Z. If/ when northerly flow takes over, wind speeds will be under 7kts. A possible (20-30% chance) scenario is that light and variable winds exist from 22Z to 03Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail across the entirety of the forecast area through the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds are expected today across much of the region, and especially in southwest Wyoming. Afternoon wind gusts are expected to peak between 20-25 kts. Otherwise, high level cloud cover will be on the increase through the day. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cheng/Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity