688
FXUS65 KSLC 162111
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
311 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated high-based afternoon convection is possible
across central and northern Utah Wednesday with microburst
potential. A cold front will bring widespread valley rain and
mountain snow Thursday to all of Utah and SW Wyoming with cooler
temperatures and unsettled conditions persisting through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Sunday)...A late season winter storm will
impact the region through Saturday morning...bringing accumulating
snow to the higher terrain and potentially even the valleys
(though little to no accumulation is expected). It will be quite
the shock for many people after the warm, late spring-like
temperatures the past few days.

Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates a continental
trough is shifting south into the northern Intermountain Region.
An upper level low is nearing the southern California coast. These
two systems will phase...though with a much more progressive
timing than previous day`s model runs.

As this strong continental trough shifts southward into Idaho
Thursday morning, the associated strong cold front will cross the
Wasatch Front Thursday morning...reaching southern Utah by
Thursday afternoon. With this front, expect a period of moderate
to heavy valley rain (or rain/snow mix) and moderate to heavy
mountain snow. With frontal timing around 6-10 AM from north to
south along the Wasatch Front, heavy rain may make for a slippy
commute.

While earlier guidance suggested this front may stall across
southern Utah, this is no longer expected to be the case, with the
front quickly shifting into northern Arizona by Thursday night.
Showery conditions will continue behind the front before the next
upper level low shifts south into the area, bringing another round
of precipitation Friday morning into Friday evening. Depending on
the southward track of this low...the heaviest precipitation with
this second shot is expected across southern and eastern Utah.
This may bring winter driving conditions to the SR-12 corridor
near Boulder Mountain Friday afternoon into Friday night, so
despite being mid-April, those with travel plans in this area
should be prepared for a return to winter.

All told, the northern mountains will see around 4 to 8 inches of
snow over the two days periods, while the central and southern
mountains will see 5 to 10 inches with locally up to 12 to 15
inches for the Tushar Range, near Boulder Mountain and the Henry
Range. If this storm does overperform expectations, it will likely
be in these eastern mountain ranges (near Boulder Mountain and the
Henrys). Winter weather advisories are in effect for the central
and southern mountains.

As far as wind concerns, the current ensemble suite suggests only
30 percent of solutions with the appropriate set up for gusty
easterly winds along the northern Wasatch Front. Right now, there
is a 30% chance winds will exceed 45 mph, especially from Layton
to Bountiful Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Something to
keep an eye on though.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Sunday)...Temperatures rebound to seasonal
norms after the trough departs eastward. Though conditions warm
and dry across the CWA, some models suggest lingering instability
in northern Utah and SW Wyoming with moderately strong westerly
winds and slight chance of afternoon mountain precipitation for
Easter Sunday.

Ensemble clusters continue to show a longwave trough dipping down
from Canada from Sunday into the first part of the work week. The
slow progression of this trough will eject multiple waves, with
just enough moisture and instability to encourage precip each day,
primarily in the higher terrain of the northern half of the
forecast area. Temperatures there are expected to climb to about 5
degrees F above norms by the end of the forecast period. Southern
Utah should see sunnier skies during this period, ramping temps
further above norms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...The pattern remains active through the TAF
period, but predominant VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through this evening. There is a 30% chance for showers to impact
the terminal between 21z-02z, with these showers capable of
producing gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 30 kts.
Conditions dry out briefly this evening into early Thursday
morning ahead of a strong cold front passage mid-Thursday morning.
Gusty northwesterly winds and a band of heavy precipitation is
expected to accompany this frontal passage, with potential to
bring a period of MVFR/IFR conditions through roughly 17z.
Precipitation type will be mainly rain with this band, though some
wet snow may mix in at the tail end as snow levels rapidly drop
behind the front.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Overall VFR conditions
prevail for all regional terminals through this evening. Gusty
west- southwest winds are expected across the airspace ahead of
our next weather system. Modest instability today has allowed
scattered rain showers to develop across the northern portion of
the airspace early this afternoon. These showers will be capable
of producing gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts. Isolated
lightning is also possible this afternoon. A strong cold front is
expected to sweep through Utah and southwest Wyoming from the
northwest Thursday morning into the afternoon hours. Gusty
northwesterly winds and a band of heavy precipitation are expected
to accompany this frontal passage. Snow levels rapidly dropping
to around 5000 feet behind the front, yielding precipitation type
as rain for valley terminals and snow for southwest Wyoming and
the Wasatch Back.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 9 PM MDT Friday
     for UTZ117.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to midnight MDT
     Friday night for UTZ125.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Verzella/Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity