343 FXUS65 KSLC 080935 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 335 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring a warming trend across the region through the first half of next week. Lingering moisture will continue to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain. Increasing southwesterly flow mid to late week will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions, mainly across southwest and eastern Utah. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates a rex block pattern continues near the Pacific Coast with a cut-off upper level low offshore the Bay Area, with an elongated upper level ridge from off the PACNW coast to the Great Basin. An upper level trough is currently located in the Gulf of Alaska. Much of Utah remains in northwest flow. Looking at the latest mesoanalysis across the Great Basin, precipitable water values remain around 0.60" or so across southern Utah, quite similar to yesterday at this time. Expect another round of isolated thunderstorms across southern Utah, with HREF 25th to 75th percentile SBCAPE values ranging from 100 to 500 J/kg and little deep layer shear, expect slow moving convection again this afternoon and evening. If convection is able to train over the same locations, isolated flash flooding is again possible, especially near Capitol Reef National Park. Kept the going "Possible" rating for flash flood potential today for the Grand Staircase, Capitol Reef, Glen Canyon and Zion National Park. With upper level ridging shifting overhead Monday, convection threat will be more limited to the higher terrain and adjacent valleys Monday afternoon and evening, with temperatures rebounding into the upper 80s and low 90s across the Wasatch Front and low 100s near St. George. While heat risk will not be elevated sufficiently for any products, a reminder to be heat safe while partaking in outdoor activities. Bring 0.5 to 1 liter of water while hiking. There have been a significant number of rescues already this summer for underprepared hikers. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist through the long-term period, with the only precipitation chances expected on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. On Tuesday, despite a shortwave ridge crossing the area, remnant moisture will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across higher terrain across portions of the state. By Wednesday however, as a passing shortwave trough grazes just to our north, these precipitation chances will be limited to northern Utah/southwest Wyoming. Heading into Thursday, a longwave trough developing over the PacNW will result in a prolonged period of dry, southwesterly flow and the potential for critical fire weather conditions across the area through at least Day 7 (see Fire Weather section for details). Ensemble guidance suggests this trough will be fairly stagnant through at least the weekend, with uncertainty starting to increase thereafter. For example, the 25th-75th percentile spread for maximum temperature remains fairly small, only starting to increase next Monday, perhaps suggesting the trough starts to inch towards our area. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds around 8-10kts will transition to northwesterly around 9-12kts after 16-17z today, with VFR conditions and clear skies prevailing. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop once again across southern Utah after ~18z, lasting into the early evening. These showers will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds around 25-35kts. Winds will favor a northerly direction this afternoon across the state, becoming largely terrain-driven again by late evening. && .FIRE WEATHER...As high pressure gradually shifts across the region, convection will shift from southern Utah today to the higher terrain Monday. By Wednesday, a weak disturbance will bring the threat of critical fire weather conditions to portions of southwestern Utah where fuels are sufficiently dry. As an upper level system sets up off the Pacific Northwest coast, a long duration fire weather pattern will set up with hot, breezy and dry conditions across Utah. Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry Thursday afternoon and evening across southwestern Utah. Winds are expected to increase further Friday and Saturday, and spread the threat into eastern Utah. Given this airmass, deep mixing will continue through the next seven days (generally 60th to 80th percentile through Monday, 75-95th percentile Tuesday through Saturday). && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Cunningham For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity