586 FXUS65 KSLC 062101 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 301 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to build over the southwest through midweek. This will bring increasingly hot temperatures and dry conditions to the forecast area. By Thursday, a weakening trough will clip the area bringing temperatures back to near normal through Friday, though unseasonably hot temperatures will return by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Currently, ridging aloft is continuing to build over much of the desert southwest with an upper low churning off the California coastline. This upper air setup will enable southwesterlies aloft to transport drier air across the area, and with strong subsidence aloft, will result in relatively calm conditions across the forecast area over the next few days. A chance for isolated terrain driven showers exists each afternoon across areas such as the Uintas, but otherwise we should remain quite dry. A couple models do hint at some more thunderstorm activity on Wednesday despite relatively dry conditions, though this remains uncertain. As ridging continues to build over the area, temperatures are expected to raise around 5-10 degrees above normals Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Both days will feature chances of the Wasatch front reaching 100F with the highest confidence of this occurring Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, lower Washington County will be quite hot as well with temperatures nearing 110F in areas such as St. George. Despite ridging building over the Southwest, the aforementioned upper low will lowly traverse inland and weaken somewhat. Initially, the pressure gradient across the area will gradually tighten Tuesday through Thursday with winds seeing an increase out of the southwest most notably Wednesday afternoon. Given the high temperatures and increasing winds, some attendant fire danger appears possible across the state. As we reach early Thursday morning, a dry front will pass through northwestern UT and traverse across the state. While little precipitation is expected to occur with this frontal system, temperatures across predominately northern UT and southwest WY will see a decrease to near-average afternoon high temperatures. There remains some uncertainty regarding its southward extent, though at this time it does not appear that lower Washington county will see much relief from the heat during this time. This relief for the northern half of the CWA appears to be short lived as ridging builds back in following the departure of the upper low with unseasonably hot afternoon highs returning to the forecast for the weekend. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Quiet VFR conditions persist with only some isolated daytime cumulus expected. Winds remain light with daytime magnitudes generally less than 10 kts Sun and 15 kts Mon. Directional shifts to largely follow typical diurnal pattern (shift favoring SE ~03-05Z Mon, back NW ~16-18Z Mon). .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...TAF period to remain quiet with VFR conditions persisting. Some daytime terrain initiated cumulus and a widely isolated terrain based shower or two, but dry/clear elsewhere. Winds remain light, generally less than 15 kts, with some modest gusts 20-25 kts at more exposed or typically gusty terminals. Wind directions anticipated to largely follow a typical diurnal pattern. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure over the Desert southwest will continue to build and strengthen into the Four Corners region through Wednesday, leading to increasing heat and a continuation of largely dry conditions. Can`t entirely rule out a widely isolated high based shower or two drifting off high terrain during peak heat of the day Monday, though if anything these would bring a chance of some modestly gusty erratic outflows rather than wetting rains or even much in the way of measurable precipitation. Additionally, a cutoff low will remain somewhat stationary off the California coast and enhance deep southwesterly flow overhead. This will lead to some modest gusts in the 15-30 mph range, which in combination with low daytime RH and critical fuels may lead to some isolated pockets of critical fire weather conditions. On Wednesday the cutoff low begins to push inland, eventually driving a cold front through Utah in the late Wednesday to early Thursday time frame. This will nudge winds and gusts upwards slightly Wednesday afternoon/evening, so in turn will see a bit more area of critical fire weather conditions. Too early/marginal for headlines at this time, but will need to monitor. Some models also do show potential for isolated convection across the eastern half of the state ahead of this Wednesday with some isolated activity also accompanying the front later on, but with moisture very limited, anticipating a largely dry frontal passage. Front yields a cooldown across the northern two thirds of Utah Thursday and Friday, with warming conditions returning by the weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Warthen FIRE WEATHER...Warthen For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity