383
FXUS65 KSLC 250842
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
242 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Heavy wildfire smoke will continue to impact
southeastern Utah through most of the weekend. Critical fire
weather conditions will be more localized today, becoming
widespread Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Deep southwesterly flow will continue across the
region today, squeezed between a ridge to the east and a trough to
the west. This is classic fire weather pattern for Utah.

Two main impacts today...both related to fire
weather concerns. First, heavy wildfire smoke from the Dragon
Bravo and White Sage Fires in Arizona will continue to impact
southeastern Utah, with the highest concentration of smoke across
far eastern portions of the Grand Staircase, through much of the
Glen Canyon area and portions of western Canyonlands. Those with
outdoor plans in this area should consider staying indoors during
higher smoke concentrations, especially those with pre-existing
heart and lung conditions. The Monroe Canyon Fire in central
Utah will also impact areas near Richfield this afternoon and
evening.

All three wildfires look to continue to impact these areas
through at least Saturday.

Gusty winds and very low humidities will bring the threat of
localized critical fire weather conditions to portions of
southern and eastern Utah today, with more widespread conditions
Saturday. See the fire weather discussion for more information.

There is about a 50/50 split in the ensemble system members
between increasing mid-level moisture reaching Utah by Tuesday,
versus largely shunting any substantial moisture increase to the
east into Colorado. Something to continue to monitor as a longer
duration without precipitation would worsen drought and fire
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...SLC...VFR conditions to persist through the period.
Pulse of vertically-integrated smoke from northern Arizona
wildfires expected to drift across the area after 06Z tonight and
persist through mid-Saturday morning, providing a hazy sky and
perhaps somewhat degraded slant range visibility. Southeast
drainage flow expected to transition to NW lake breeze between
20Z-22Z, and back to southeasterly drainage flow between 03Z-04Z
this evening.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Expect occasional mid-high
cloudiness through the period. The column has sufficiently dried
to prevent any shower/thunderstorm activity through the weekend.
Wildfire smoke will continue to be transported into eastern Utah
in particular through the weekend, with significant smoke
concentrations at times (especially late afternoon through the
evening) across SE Utah, with the greatest impacts to VIS and CIG
in the Lake Powell vicinity, with category reductions down to MVFR
and locally IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deep, very dry southwest flow will continue
across Utah through the weekend. Expect gusty winds across much of
the state with humidities falling into the single digits.
Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible this
afternoon and evening in typically windy locations. After a poor
to very poor overnight recovery tonight, winds will increase
further, especially across western and southern Utah. More
widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely Saturday,
with a return to single digit relative humidities. Another very
poor overnight recovery Saturday night will transition to another
hot, dry and windy day across Utah. Winds will decrease slightly
Sunday, with critical fire weather conditions more localized to
windier locations.

Guidance continues to have a wide spread in the timing of the
arrival of any monsoon moisture Tuesday into Wednesday. One
solution in particular is problematic as it would introduce high-
based thunderstorms to southern Utah with lightning. This may
bring an increased threat of new wildfire starts.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for UTZ489-493-494-496-498.

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for WYZ277.

&&

$$

Kruse/DeSmet

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