275
FXUS65 KSLC 271003
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
403 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot, dry and breezy conditions will continue to impact
the region through early next week. Heavy wildfire smoke is
expected across southeastern Utah and in the Richfield vicinity
through at least late Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Early morning upper air, surface, and satellite
analysis indicates deep southwest flow remains across the region.
Looking at relevant satellite data for the Monroe Canyon Wildfire,
the fire continues to show a signal of remaining very active
through the night...matching the very poor overnight humidity
recoveries expected.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across
much of central, eastern, and southern Utah. See the fire weather
discussion for more information.

Significant near-surface wildfire smoke will continue to impact
southeastern Utah through at least Monday morning. With the
continued growth of the Monroe Canyon Wildfire, HRRR smoke
modeling suggests a significant increase in near-surface smoke
concentrations across towns near the fire over the next few days.
Something to monitor. In both locations, if heavy smoke impacts
your area, consider postponing outdoor activities, especially in
situations where individuals have pre-existing heart/lung
conditions.

Dry and hot conditions will continue through at least Tuesday. By
Wednesday, a subset of the guidance (around 50% of ensemble
members) bring an increase in mid-level moisture to portions of
central and eastern Utah. This increases a bit further Thursday
before drying back out again Friday. Given the best moisture
remains east of the CWA, expect the main impact will be high-based
showers and thunderstorms and gusty, microburst winds with a small
humidity improvement rather than heavy rain or flash flooding.

Unfortunately, nearly all members keep western Utah in a hot, dry
pattern, likely exasperating fuel conditions and further
increasing evaporative demand.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds will gradually ramp up
through the morning hours, with gusts to around 20kts arriving as
early as 10z. By ~16z, gusts to 25kts are likely, with more of a
southerly component rather than southeasterly. VFR conditions will
continue with clear skies.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Southerly to southwesterly
winds will ramp up once again through the morning, with widespread
gusts to around 20-25kts expected during the afternoon/evening. VFR
conditions will prevail in most locations, though sites near the
Monroe Canyon and Dragon Bravo fires, particularly sites
northeast/downwind of these fires, may see MVFR-IFR VIS/CIG
reductions due to wildfire smoke. Other areas in eastern Utah may
see elevated smoke and thus hazy skies/slantwise VIS reductions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Another day of very dry, single digit humidities
combined with gusty southwest winds will bring critical fire
weather conditions to portions of central, eastern and southern
Utah. While winds will be slightly less gusty Monday, humidities
will remain very low, with many valley locations continuing to see
single digit values. Given lower winds, critical fire weather
conditions are likely to be more localized Monday afternoon and
evening.

Guidance continues to suggest portions of eastern and southern
Utah may see a slight improvement in daytime humidities by
Wednesday, with the threat of high-based thunderstorms, lightning
and gusty winds from the mountain crest east. However, there is
high confidence that western Utah will see very minor humidity
recovery, with many sites struggling to reach double digit
humidities through the next seven days.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ481>484-489-
     492>496-498.

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ277.

&&

$$

Kruse/Cunningham

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