919 FXUS65 KSLC 092121 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 321 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A mostly dry frontal passage Wednesday evening into Thursday morning will bring a brief cooldown to central and northern Utah through Friday. Building high pressure from the weekend into the upcoming week then results in the return of warming temperatures. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...A shortwave impulse is currently pushing through the Great Basin this afternoon. Moisture advection with this remains somewhat meager, but in combination with forcing from the shortwave and daytime heating, seeing increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage along and east of Utah`s high terrain. So far this activity hasn`t been too impactful, just periodic flare ups of lightning activity and some modest outflow gusts. Otherwise, conditions around the state remain quite hot, running about 7-15F above normal. The shortwave and an associated frontal boundary will continue to advance towards the region through the afternoon and evening. As it does so, models continue to depict increasing coverage of isolated to scattered convection across more of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. The environment trends drier as you move further north, contributing to activity being more high-based in nature. While aforementioned ongoing showers elsewhere will still carry some threat of stronger outflow wind gusts, expect this drier environment across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming to have a bit higher chance of seeing these stronger gusts. As such, the SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5) for severe wind gusts over this area. The cold front will push through Utah from Wednesday evening on into Thursday morning. Models hint at some continued limited shower activity across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming overnight as the core of the shortwave begins to translate through overhead, but elsewhere expect precipitation chances to continue to trend downward. Cooler air will move into the area behind the front, resulting in a noticeable cooldown across northern/central Utah and southwest Wyoming. Forecast highs come in around 5-10F lower than that of Wednesday, bringing temps back nearer to typical seasonal levels. For southern Utah, the baroclinic zone doesn`t appear likely to advance far enough to allow much in the way of a temperature change, so hot conditions are maintained. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday), Issued 907 AM MDT... The period starts with dry westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and surface temperatures a few degrees below normal across northern Utah/SW Wyoming. However, across southern Utah temperatures will be a few degrees above normal given the proximity to a ridge centered over southern California. High pressure will remain centered over California through the weekend and into early next week. This will keep conditions dry with gradually warming temperatures across northern Utah while southern Utah keeps temperatures between 105-108F. Guidance is starting to hint at a breakdown in the ridge and potentially re-orienting further to the east to allow for a return of some moisture by the middle to the end of next week. The signal is still pretty weak which would likely limit the magnitude and extent of the moisture to the terrain of southern and central Utah. However, the latest CPC forecast does have a better monsoon signal in the July 16-22 time period across Arizona and southern Utah with lower probabilities (but still favoring wetter) the further north you go. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight at the SLC terminal. Southerly wind gusts are forecast to diminish below AWW criteria after 22z as vicinity showers develop and a cold front approaches the terminal. Winds may shift more southwesterly after 22z, with these showers bringing a threat of outflow winds and a potential windshift to the northwest around 23-00z. There is a low chance (<20%) of continued southerly winds into the evening. A cold front is on track to move through between 05-07z turning winds to consistent northwesterly and clearing skies for the rest of the night. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace throughout the period. Southerly winds will remain gusty for most locations ahead of a mostly dry front. This front will push through the northern airspace during the late afternoon/evening with isolated (~30% chance) high-based convection across the north and east portions of the area. The primary impact from these will be gusty outflow winds with very little rain possible. && .FIRE WEATHER...A mostly dry cold frontal boundary will sweep through Utah Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. While a few showers may linger in portions of northern Utah, most locations will experience a dry frontal passage marked primarily by a shift in winds to a more northwesterly direction, especially at less sheltered locations or higher elevations. Winds may also remain gusty for a brief time following frontal passage, but generally decrease thereafter. Winds will pick back up across portions of southern and eastern Utah Thursday afternoon, which in combination with low RH values may result in some areas of critical fire weather conditions where fuels are sufficiently cured. Additionally, cooler air moves in behind the front with temperatures across central and southern Utah around 5-10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. From the weekend on into the upcoming week, a ridge of high pressure strengthens and becomes the dominant influence on day to day weather. As such, expect another warming trend. Much of the northern half of Utah will remain dry, but models suggest maybe some slight amount of moisture sneaks into southern Utah through the work week, resulting in some isolated daytime convection. Winds will also be lighter with the high pressure nearby (with the exception of any convective outflow), and in turn areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions become more isolated. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-493- 495>498. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Warthen LONG TERM...Mahan AVIATION...Verzella FIRE WEATHER...Warthen For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity