600 FXUS65 KSLC 272112 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 312 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Hot, dry and breezy conditions will continue to impact the region through early part of the week. Heavy wildfire smoke is expected across southeastern Utah and in the Richfield vicinity through at least late Monday. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...A warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place tonight and tomorrow. Very deep afternoon mixing has allowed breezy conditions to continue, with winds overperforming again compared to models. In general, over the past few days, winds have been verifying closer to the 75th-90th percentile of the NBM. Winds today are slightly weaker compared to yesterday, and tomorrow should be similar to today across western Utah while decreasing across eastern Utah. The winds and dry conditions will continue to bring critical fire weather conditions to a least southwestern Utah tomorrow. Smoke remains a concern as wildfires remain active given the dry and breezy conditions. The southwest flow has continued to transport smoke from the Dragon Bravo Fire into southeast Utah, while smoke from the Monroe Canyon Fire continues to impact portions of central Utah, leading to reduced visibilities and poor air quality impacting sensitive groups. .LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY), Issued 403 AM MDT... Dry and hot conditions will continue through at least Tuesday. By Wednesday, a subset of the guidance (around 50% of ensemble members) bring an increase in mid-level moisture to portions of central and eastern Utah. This increases a bit further Thursday before drying back out again Friday. Given the best moisture remains east of the CWA, expect the main impact will be high-based showers and thunderstorms and gusty, microburst winds with a small humidity improvement rather than heavy rain or flash flooding. Unfortunately, nearly all members keep western Utah in a hot, dry pattern, likely exasperating fuel conditions and further increasing evaporative demand. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Southerly winds with gusts to around 25 kts will continue at the terminal through around 03z, becoming lighter out of the southeast thereafter. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds continue for all regional terminals this afternoon and evening, with widespread gusts to 20-25 kts. VFR conditions prevail for most sites across the airspace, though heavy surface smoke may lead to MVFR/IFR CIG and VIS reductions for terminals in the vicinity or downwind of the Monroe Canyon and Dragon Bravo fires each afternoon and evening through at least Monday. Increased vertically integrated smoke concentrations are also expected across the eastern half of Utah through at least Monday, resulting in hazy skies and slantwise visibility reductions. && .FIRE WEATHER...A warm and dry southwesterly flow will remain in place over the area through the early part of the week. Low humidities down to the single digits with poor overnight recoveries will continue to be common in many areas. While winds will trend slightly weaker tomorrow, they will remain breezy, especially across portions of western and southwest Utah. Critical fire weather conditions due to a combination of low humidities and gusty winds are expected again tomorrow, but will likely become more confined to southwest Utah. Winds will then continue to decrease slightly for Tuesday, then increase again on Wednesday, which could bring another round of critical fire weather conditions. Moisture is still expected to spread into the area from the southeast for the middle through latter part of the week. Relative humidities across the spine of Utah and eastern valleys should trend higher as a result, but this moisture is unlikely to spread much into western Utah. Additionally, this moisture currently does not look to be very signficiant. As a result, high-based showers with dry thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds will be more likely than any appreciable wetting rain. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ481>484-489- 492-494-498. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ493-495-496. WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277. && $$ Cheng/Kruse/Whitlam For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity