943
FXUS65 KSLC 281931
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
131 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1034 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026...


- Drier air spreading into southwest Utah will limit convection
  across southern Utah on Tuesday, with isolated to scattered
  convection developing again across northern Utah. Moisture will
  increase again on Wednesday, bringing an increased threat of
  flash flooding across central and southern Utah, before
  decreasing substantially from Thursday onward.

- Significant heat temporarily and marginally subsides from
  Tuesday through Thursday before increasing in intensity once
  again by Friday onward. High temperatures will only moderate to
  the upper-90s on the Wasatch Front and mid-100s in the lowest
  elevations of southern Utah before increasing by upwards of 5-7
  degrees over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 128 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026...
While a drier air mass spreads over central and
southern Utah today, significant moisture remains in place over
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. As such, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated through the remainder of the day
across the central and southern area while the northern area is
expected to see continued scattered shower and thunderstorm
development. With moisture and instability in place across
northern Utah, primary threats associated with developing
thunderstorms will be heavy rainfall, small hail, and frequent
lightning. These threats will be notably lower across the southern
half of the area. That said, models indicate a shortwave
trough lifting into the region from Arizona this evening, which
may act to provide enough lift into the region to support the
development of showers and thunderstorms in south-central Utah
from late this afternoon through around midnight.

As our area of high pressure repositions itself nearly overhead
over the next several days, a drier airmass will shift into place
and allow for shower and thunderstorm potential to decrease
significantly, with only isolated showers anticipated by Thursday,
then a near zero percent chance area wide by Friday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase slightly into early next
week as moisture fills into the center of the area of high
pressure, but even then chances remain at, or below, 20 percent.

The more noteworthy impact associated with this area of high
pressure shifting overhead will be the imminent associated heat
building back into the region. From roughly Thursday through
Saturday, temperatures are expected to increase day after day,
leading to increasing heat risk across Utah and southwest Wyoming.
Current forecast trends place high temperatures back into the
low-100s across the lower elevation northern Utah valleys by
Friday and into the upper-100s to low-110s across southern Utah`s
lower elevation valleys (namely lower Washington County and the
Glen Canyon area). To add insult to injury with these hot
temperatures (about 10 degrees above average), overnight low
temperatures are only expected to fall to the low- to mid-70s for
the northern Utah low lying valleys (i.e. Wasatch Front) and into
the upper-70s to low-80s for southern Utah valleys. As such, the
risk for heat related illness will increase from Friday through at
least Sunday across all of Utah.

Increasingly active northern stream energy across the PacNW and
northern Rockies region early next week may bring relief from heat
for the northern areas by Monday while the southern and central
area remains locked into the center of the high pressure. If
enough energy organizes and a deep enough shortwave trough can
scrape by northern Utah, we may begin to look at smoke impacts
advecting into the region from the ongoing fires in the Columbia
Basin. More to come on this as we move forward as there is some
uncertainty in this portion of the forecast, but it`s something to
pay attention to as we head into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail overall at the terminal
through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms developing along
the high terrain have an increased chance of impacting the terminal
until about 00z, with current prob30 likely to become a tempo within
that period, and a 30% chance of another round of storms between 07-
10z. The main impact from showers and thunderstorms through these
timeframes includes gusty and erratic outflow winds, with gusts to
30 kts possible at times. Northerly winds are expected to ooze into
the terminal around 20z, with a 40% chance of southwesterlies
instead until around 21z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all
regional terminals through the period. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected across northern and south-central
Utah as well as southwest Wyoming between 20z-09z, with potential to
produce gusty and erratic outflow winds with gusts upwards of 30-40
kts. Otherwise, winds remain generally light, following typical
diurnal patterns across the airspace.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 128 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026...
A quick drying of the environment is expected today, with
afternoon minimum humidity falling into the low- to mid-teens
across the lower lying valley ares of western, southern, and
eastern Utah. That said, moisture lingering overhead will bring
another day of isolated thunderstorms over central and southern
Utah, with northern Utah expected to see greater coverage due to
higher moisture availability. Moisture is anticipated to surge
northward on Wednesday, allowing for a moisture increase along the
mountains running parallel with I-15 and areas east. This increase
in moisture is also expected to bring an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity across the state, with primary risks being
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning with developing
thunderstorms.

A significant drying of the air mass over Utah is expected
through the late week as an area of high pressure shifts its
position. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible
over the high terrain across Utah on Thursday, humidity is
anticipated to begin falling back into the single digits to low-
teens across almost the entire state for all elevations. Alongside
this drying trend, temperatures are expected to rise by another 5
to 10 degrees across the region. These hot and dry conditions
will be maintained across Utah through at least Sunday, with some
potential relief in northern Utah by Monday. That relief, however,
comes with the introduction of a weak area of low pressure which
will help to bring an increase in southwest winds across a portion
of northern and central Utah, potentially by Sunday. As such, the
increase in winds pairing with the hot and dry conditions will
bring an uptick in fire weather conditions across the western half
of the area. More to come on this as models come into better
agreement.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Webber
AVIATION...Verzella
FIRE WEATHER...Webber

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity