713 FXUS65 KSLC 092134 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 334 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will result in mild temperatures and light winds through Tuesday, with lingering moisture allowing for a few afternoon showers and storms over the higher terrain. A grazing shortwave will bring the potential for strong thunderstorms over northern Utah on Wednesday. Hot and dry southwesterly flow will develop for the latter half of the week, bringing the potential for critical fire weather conditions across central and southern Utah. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...High pressure is centered over the Great Basin this afternoon, with Utah and southwest Wyoming under a relatively light northerly flow aloft with some lingering moisture. Like previous days, seeing some generally isolated convective development over the higher terrain. With limited steering flow, seeing little in the way of drift into adjacent valleys. The potential for storms will continue into the early evening before the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures remain quite mild, with maxes running up 10F above seasonal normals. The ridge axis will continue east tonight into tomorrow, moving overhead tomorrow afternoon. Because of this, steering flow will be even less than today with instability a bit less than today. As a result, will see a reduction in convective coverage as well as potential valley drift. Temperatures will continue to warm under the influence of high pressure, running 2-4F warmer than values observed today. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday), Issued 318 AM MDT...Wednesday marks the last day of showers and thunderstorms across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, with remnant mid-level moisture still holding on. Storms will likely have a little more potency than prior days given a strong but fast- moving shortwave trough clipping northwestern Utah Wednesday afternoon. Given dry low levels, steep lapse rates, appreciable shear, and modest instability, this enhances our severe weather threat; the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the northern third of Utah and southwest Wyoming to a somewhat unusual Day 3 Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather, with the main threat being gusty outflow winds given the environment. By Thursday, our concerns shift more towards fire weather, with dry westerly then southwesterly flow increasing across the state for the rest of the long-term period as a trough develops to our west (see Fire Weather section for more details). One piece to keep an eye on is a pretty dry shortwave trough moving through this southwest flow late Sunday, which may enhance wind speeds. Regarding other sensible weather, expect mostly clear skies, with temperatures hovering around 5-15 degrees above normal through the weekend. Be sure to carry plenty of water if recreating or working outdoors this weekend! && .AVIATION...KSLC...Minimal operational concerns are forecast for the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Winds are anticipated to follow diurnally driven trends, shifting to a southerly drainage flow after 03-04Z. Clear skies prevail through the overnight period. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail across Utah and southwest Wyoming through the TAF period. Any ongoing convection across the area is expected to diminish after sundown. Isolated showers are expected to develop over high terrain across the region but are not expected to bring significant impacts to terminals. Outside of any outflow winds through the rest of the evening, winds are expected to be generally light and terrain driven through the overnight period. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure over the area will result in mild conditions and light winds through Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain, primarily over central and southern Utah, this afternoon, and tomorrow`s coverage of convection should be similar to or slightly less than today. The ridge will shift east of the area by Wednesday, allowing a weak disturbance to graze northern Utah, bringing the potential of strong storms capable of producing gusty winds to northern Utah Wednesday afternoon. A larger trough will slowly approach the Pacific coast midweek into the weekend, bringing a drying trend to the area along with breezy west to southwest winds. This pattern will bring the potential for critical fire weather conditions to locations with cured, dry fuels Wednesday into the weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan LONG TERM...Cunningham AVIATION...Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity